Bottlenecks

Their wordsThe other thing I'd say is that most organizations don't know what they want. They don't know how to make it better. They're not bottlenecked on implementation. They're bottlenecked on ideas. They're bottlenecked on vision. They're bottlenecked on taste. And if you don't have those element in excess of your implementational capacity, it doesn't help. So you can make a lot of shitty ideas come true, then what?

Their wordsInteresting thing is certain regions of the US transmitting power cost more than actually generating it because the grid is so slow to build. And the demand for power, and the ability to build power, and re-ramping on a natural gas plant or even a coal plant is easy enough to do, but transmitting the power's really hard.

Their wordsAnd the bottleneck prior to what we call the industrial revolution was uh metabolism, right? It's just like how much like oats can a human or a horse physically digest and then convert into useful mechanical output for you know their their um their peasant overlord or whatever.

Their wordsSo certainly one thing that a lot of them seem to be bottlenecked on is now having interesting ideas and in particular having interesting design ideas.

Their wordsI told him what I believe: that in the age of AI, medicine will be bottlenecked more than ever by regulation and the grind of clinical trials, and that billions poured into faster pre-clinical research won’t touch that problem, unsexy as it is.

Their wordsThose are why I do not believe that AI could end disease within 10 years on its own, nor that 50-100 years of medical progress could occur 5-10 years after powerful AI due to AI progress alone

Their wordsMeasles is technologically “solved”, but not everyone trusts the solutions or their messengers.

Their wordsAnd so we can distribute the voting across a lot of the company for this initial review, which is essential because if you're doing anything cool, by the time you get a couple years into it, that top of funnel is overwhelming. And if you place any in any small group of employees or any one person in the way as a bottle bottleneck on this, they will absolutely bottleneck the whole rest of the organization.

Their wordsSo I think power, thermal, those become the bottleneck. So I think I always look at from what is the problem we try to solve? Is it real? Is customer crying for it?

Their wordsI think we're at this like in amazing moment in the world where the bottleneck is not the progress of the AI models, the bottleneck is diffusing that through the rest of the world and and helping the world adapt to this amazing technology that already exists. Like I think if the models didn't improve at all from today, there would still be like decades and decades of like total upheaval and change in the economy and how the world operates and and everything around us

Their wordsThere were a handful of people probably managing a security review process or a launch process or a deployment process or, you know, sometimes reviews were a little slow and they got backed up. Well, now we just threw gas on the fire and so all of that is a problem.

Their wordsBut I don’t think all bottlenecks on medical progress are equally AI-able in the next decade, and I don’t think all will become irrelevant.

Their wordsAnd so none of that my point is that none of the bottlenecks last longer than a couple 2 three years. None of them.

Their wordsI mean, I think for the history of humanity, um you know, groups of smart people getting together towards a shared goal was was the bottleneck of progress. You know, US The United States of America in some sense was an example of this. Like the United States of America was formed from a smart group of very smart people getting together and having a vision for the future that they wanted to enact.