Brad DeLong
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
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Their wordsthe distinctive modern pathology is unopposed rhetoric: values statements and PR that pre-empt criticism as they are designed to never face an advocate on the other side.
↗CROSSPOST: NICHOLAS GRUEN: Hobbes on Spin & Bullshitbraddelong.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsit is not true that modern institutional speech faces "no adversary": we have journalism, litigation, regulators, social media pile-ons, whistleblowers, and o on.
↗CROSSPOST: NICHOLAS GRUEN: Hobbes on Spin & Bullshitbraddelong.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsDisagreement is, often, genuinely about values or truly contested facts.
↗CROSSPOST: NICHOLAS GRUEN: Hobbes on Spin & Bullshitbraddelong.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
Anthropic prices its Claude subscription plans as loss leaders relative to its own API rates.
Their wordsThe subscription tiers are still enormous loss leaders: $20/month for your first $200/month of tokens at API rates for the "Pro" tier, and $100 or $200/month for your first $1500 or $3000/month of tokens at the "Max 5x" or "Max 20x" tiers.
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Their wordsSuch people are unlikely to make good judgments about Middle East issues.
↗Trump’s State Department’s Obsession with What They Fear Are Satanic Bull-Statues: Laugh of the Daybraddelong.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsAnd more than half the rise in the top 1% share since 1985 flowed through the pass-through businesses that was a "tax efficiency innovation" feature of the Reagan Revolution.
↗Passthrough Tax Loopholes & the Rise of the American Gentry: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsPerhaps half of Trump State Department political appointees are such people.
↗Trump’s State Department’s Obsession with What They Fear Are Satanic Bull-Statues: Laugh of the Daybraddelong.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe Reagan Revolution promised faster growth in exchange for lower taxes on the rich. The rich won; the growth never showed up.
↗Passthrough Tax Loopholes & the Rise of the American Gentry: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsWe won't even get into the fact that in the most ancient religions of Canaan and Israel, the bull is primarily a symbol of God Most High, not of the subordinate Ba'al Haddad
↗Trump’s State Department’s Obsession with What They Fear Are Satanic Bull-Statues: Laugh of the Daybraddelong.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 1 day earlier
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Their wordsOsama bin Laden's one concrete strategic goal was to end the American military presence in the Gulf and on the Arabian Peninsula. A generation later, Donald Trump's war on Iran has apparently delivered it for him
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Their wordsIn a contest between a coherent weak actor and an incoherent strong one, bet on coherence.
↗CROSSPOST: SPENCER ACKERMAN: Fanute The Houthi Coupbraddelong.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsFreedom of navigation is a global public good, and public goods decay the instant their provider is revealed to be unwilling to pay for them.
↗CROSSPOST: SPENCER ACKERMAN: Fanute The Houthi Coupbraddelong.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsChokepoint risk does more than spike the spot price for a season. It re-prices geography permanently: it redirects the next decade of pipeline and terminal investment and hands a windfall to whoever sits on the alternative route.
↗CROSSPOST: SPENCER ACKERMAN: Fanute The Houthi Coupbraddelong.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 2 days earlier
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Their wordsThe American gentry's fortunes, in other words, are in substantial part, a policy artifact.
↗America’s Gentry Élite: TUESDAY TRENDS & TURMOILbraddelong.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsThe usual default math assumes debtors want to pay. But founder-controlled firms with a "you lent us too much" attitude introduce a strategic-default option that standard systems of ratings do not fully capture.
↗DataCenter Risk Is the Real Thing: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsA gentry-dominated yuppie-hostile local power structure makes efforts at development especially hazardous.
↗America’s Gentry Élite: TUESDAY TRENDS & TURMOILbraddelong.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsAnd when market opinion is nervous, it might turn and collapse the boom at any moment.
↗DataCenter Risk Is the Real Thing: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIf the useful life of an NVIDIA H100-vintage cluster turns out to really be three years rather than six, the capex cycle's economics invert, and the leverage that looked prudent looks reckless.
↗DataCenter Risk Is the Real Thing: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece