What people believe, and where they said it.
Each claim here is our reading of what somebody said; the words in quotation marks are theirs. What is a korrent?
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19 October
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Their wordsAnd Trump is about to go bankrupt — not financially (he’s made billions through corruption) but politically.
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Their wordsSo many people are going to get one-shotted by super persuasive super intelligences
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Their wordsOne must also remember that essentially everything in alignment is dual use. Interpretability is even more dual use than usual.
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Their wordsThe truth is that Democrats have made meaningful gestures, and those gestures have had a real impact on voters.
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Their wordsBut to get very large benefits, and runaway RSI, I expect we’ll need conceptual breakthroughs.
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Their wordsYes: natural-language interfaces are wonderful ways to interface with information-technology systems. Much of the time.
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Their wordsIn “expectations and the neutrality of interest rates” I show that even in an old-Keynesian adaptive expectations model, that otherwise well captures standard doctrines, higher interest rates cannot durably lower inflation without a fiscal tightening to pay interest costs on the debt.
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Creator of the Keras deep-learning library and the ARC-AGI benchmarkAdd to listTheir profile on ppll ↗
Their wordsWhen enough people believe something will happen, it doesn't need to happen at all for all of its consequences to be felt
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Their wordsBUT when I'm not an expert in an area, I find that I trust it, and then later learn it does stupid stuff.
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Their wordsMulti-agent gains in solving harder problems often diminish incredibly quickly and may even saturate.
18 October
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Their wordsKurzweil's "Singularity" is actually two very distinct concepts, which he predicted to happen decades apart from each other.
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Their wordsIf we lived on a planet that ran mostly on wind and solar power, war would be less likely.
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Their wordsSo when investment is diverted away from other sectors to AI, the overall demand for labor falls relative to what it would have been before the shift. Hence, the AI boom will depress the demand for labor in the economy.
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Their wordsWhenever they lose, they think it's because they weren't savage and brutal enough
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Political scientist writing Drezner’s World on international relationsAdd to listTheir profile on ppll ↗
Their wordsIf the Democrats shellack the Republicans in a few weeks, will Trump be able to claw back control over Congress using more extralegal means? Nah. Maybe they will try — but they will not succeed.
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Dutch bootstrapper who builds and runs his internet startups aloneAdd to listTheir profile on ppll ↗
Their wordsWhen you sell your business, never ever agree on an earn out Always get it in cash!
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Their wordsTurns out that you need a lot of code to support teams/orgs.
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Their wordsmany processes currently lumped into the “AI” rubric are going to be put into the workflows of creative people whether we actively want/use them or not.
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Their wordsAnthropic generates more revenue than those multi-decades-old companies + no signs of slowdown
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Their wordsAs much as I respect Chinese-made AI models and hardware, I'm equally puzzled by how rough most of the software still is.
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Their wordsit is very simple to see the degree to which oil plays a crucial part in so many of these conflicts, as cause, as weapon, and increasingly as vulnerability.
17 October
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Their wordsThese models still can get substantial adoption, enough to start growing a business, but the costs of building true frontier models are now measured in billions per major model and only huge companies can sustain that.
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Their wordsAnthropic’s policy team seems to have, chosen protecting their business interests and guarding against their political risk, at the expense of safety considerations.
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Dutch bootstrapper who builds and runs his internet startups aloneAdd to listTheir profile on ppll ↗
Their wordsTrue poverty is being superrich but having to drive a car with bulletproof glass
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Their wordsSince fate maximizes for ironic entertainment, it was inevitable that the “Roadster” would be a flying car
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Their wordsBefore it became possible to get rich by creating wealth, the way to do it was to be on the winning side in a military or political dispute.
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Their wordsBased on my interviews and research, I strongly support most of the report’s recommendations and conclusions, and I believe the wider science community should as well.
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Creator of the Keras deep-learning library and the ARC-AGI benchmarkAdd to listTheir profile on ppll ↗
Their wordsAutomating one aspect of a system creates its own friction and moves the bottlenecks elsewhere.
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Their wordsDespite this massive scaling in resources, the technical core of the industry still doesn’t have a high hit rate on predicting how successful a model will be in real-world usage.
16 October
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Their wordsThere are two possible explanations: (a) the investors actually are stupid, or (b) they just dislike you, and are making up the reason.
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Their wordsBecause investing in whatever Elon does next is not just a great bet, but the most inspiring and fun one too.
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Their wordsIn inflation-adjusted terms, hardcover books are much cheaper than they used to be.
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Their wordsit just seems like there are a lot of signals that the mass market might not be quite ready for this product.
15 October
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Their wordsThe experts are warning you that AI could kill you because they think AI could kill you.
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Their wordsThe Fed’s odds of threading the needle and getting inflation back down to target while avoiding a recession get much lower
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Their wordsThe people at AI companies are no more likely to raise the alarm about AI dangers than people who were never at AI companies, or people who were previously at AI companies but have since quit.
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Their wordsBut they won't ask for an app, they'll just ask for a problem to be solved and the agent will write the code under the hood to solve it.
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Political scientist writing Drezner’s World on international relationsAdd to listTheir profile on ppll ↗
Their wordsBut the story also reveals why the culture of the Trump administration guarantees that this will not happen: The secretary of state is not managing anything at Foggy Bottom so he can stay close to the president; The deputy secretary of state is an insecure martinet who would never have been placed in such a high position in any competent administration; The special envoys appointed by Trump will either leak to the press or complain to the White House if anyone tries to rein in their activities.
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Their wordsIf true, and Q2 revenue was $11.5B, then that's more than half a billion dollars spent by other labs to distill Anthropic's models!
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Their wordsThat is what good technology should do. It should make your life better without asking you to spend more time thinking about the technology itself.
813 people · 13059 claims