AI and jobs
Whether AI displaces human work, which jobs go first, and what replaces them.
FilterEveryone, all time234 from 114 people
- JC
John H. Cochrane quoted
Economist at the Hoover Institution
Their wordsI don’t think long recessions would be necessary. That’s pure Phillips curve thinking, that the only way to lower inflation is via high unemployment.
- 11 days earlier
- BD
Brad DeLong quoted
Economics professor at the University of California
Their wordsThose two factors make the creative-arts sector perhaps the heaviest of heaviest lifts as far as paid employment and technological change are concerned.
↗Arts Employment in America: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com
- PG
Paul Graham quoted
Co-founder of Y Combinator and Viaweb
Our readingMany things only worked because there is a limit to the rate at which humans can operate.
Their wordsThere were a lot of things that only worked because there's a limit to the rate at which humans can operate.
- 3 days earlier
- LR
Lenny Rachitsky quoted
Writer of Lenny's Newsletter and host of Lenny's Podcast
Their wordsMy sense is that the more time we spend working with agents, the lonelier the work becomes, and the more we need to find a place to connect with other humans.
- 1 day earlier
- DH
David Heinemeier Hansson quoted
Creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals
Their wordsThe only programmers who are really in trouble with the competition from artificial intelligence are the ones who insist the world today isn't all that different from the one we lived in last year.
- 1 day earlier
- MG
Molly Graham quoted
Co-founder of Glue Club and The Guild
Our readingEngineering is probably one of the areas where jobs have most visibly been transformed by AI.
Their wordsI think engineering is like probably one of the most visceral areas where people's jobs have genuinely transformed.
↗Molly Graham: The grief, burnout, and opportunity hiding inside the AI transitionyoutube.com 4th of 20 in this recording
- MG
Molly Graham quoted
Their wordsLike as of right now, like there is not a lot of data, although you may have more than I do that says that AI is genuinely taking jobs away.
↗Molly Graham: The grief, burnout, and opportunity hiding inside the AI transitionyoutube.com 5th of 20 in this recording
- MG
Molly Graham quoted
Their wordsthey are about badly run companies slapping an AI label and getting some share points from that versus saying, "Whoops, we made we hired too many people."
↗Molly Graham: The grief, burnout, and opportunity hiding inside the AI transitionyoutube.com 6th of 20 in this recording
- MG
Molly Graham quoted
Their wordsBut until we have real evidence, what if we believe that they're not going away? They're just going to reinvent themselves.
↗Molly Graham: The grief, burnout, and opportunity hiding inside the AI transitionyoutube.com 7th of 20 in this recording
- MG
Molly Graham quoted
Their wordsI'm a believer that a lot of jobs are going to be created because of this technology
↗Molly Graham: The grief, burnout, and opportunity hiding inside the AI transitionyoutube.com 14th of 20 in this recording
- 1 day earlier
- NS
Noah Smith quoted
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter
Their wordsI'm not sure why people keep saying that the AI boom is bigger than the railroads. It's getting close, and the decade average might end up bigger, but railroads hit 5.4% of GDP in the 1870s and 4% of GDP in the 1880s.
- 1 day earlier
- DH
David Heinemeier Hansson quoted
Their wordsThe number of programmers worldwide who can beat a collaborating pair of frontier models rounds to zero.
- 1 day earlier
- ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz quoted
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase
Their wordsWhen the system is faster and cheaper, and more reliable compared to humans at that same step, you are tempted to cut other limiting factors and take more humans out of the loop.
- PG
Paul Graham quoted
Their wordsIf you know anyone looking for a good and fairly AI-proof career, watchmaker (= watch repairer) seems a promising one. Every watchmaker seems to have more work than he can handle, mechanical watches are increasingly popular, and it will be a while before AI does this.
- 1 day earlier
- SS
Scott Sumner quoted
Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting
Their wordsI do believe that most tech people overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI, but that's because economics is one area where I feel I do have some expertise.
- 3 days earlier
- RH
Rob Henderson quoted
Psychologist and writer
Our readingExpecting a layoff in advance provides little psychological protection against its effects.
Their wordsBeing mentally prepared didn't provide much protection. The effects of job loss looked remarkably similar.
↗Your Job Gives You More Than Moneyrobkhenderson.com 1st of 2 in this piece
- RH
Rob Henderson quoted
Our readingFinding a new job is the most effective remedy for the psychological harm of unemployment.
Their wordsBut the most powerful remedy for the stress of unemployment is getting back to work.
↗Your Job Gives You More Than Moneyrobkhenderson.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- JS
John Scalzi quoted
American science fiction novelist (Old Man's War
Their wordsno, I don't think AI will keep me from hitting any of these anniversaries as a working writer, unless it triggers the apocalypse, in which case we have other problems.
↗50th Anniversaries and When I’ll Hit Themwhatever.scalzi.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 1 day earlier
- TB
Thorsten Ball quoted
Co-founder of Amp and co-host of the Raising an Agent podcast
Their words“Engineers” who act as “meat proxies” and shove tickets into agents and report back to humans will no longer be valuable.
↗What I believe about the future of software developmentthorstenball.com 9th of 15 in this piece
- TB
Thorsten Ball quoted
Their wordsYes. Some people will be priced out of producing software. Just like only some people could afford a personal computer in the 80s and 90s, for the next few years, if you can’t get enough tokens, you’re playing second league.
↗What I believe about the future of software developmentthorstenball.com 12th of 15 in this piece
- TB
Thorsten Ball quoted
Their wordsIt’ll take a generation for the “new software” to replace the “old software”. Just like there are people happily employed as ASP developers today, there will be people employed to write code in 10 years.
↗What I believe about the future of software developmentthorstenball.com 15th of 15 in this piece
- GO
Gergely Orosz quoted
Writes The Pragmatic Engineer
Our readingWith AI tools, in-house development teams can do more and need less rented developer capacity.
Their wordsBut with AI tools, in-house dev teams can do more, and need less “renting”
- 4 days earlier
- TT
Tomasz Tunguz quoted
Venture capitalist and founder of Theory Ventures
Our readingWhat limits AI automating a workflow is how well the workflow is codified, not the underlying model
Their wordsThe bottleneck is not the model, it is the codified workflow.
↗When Inbound Sells Itselftomtunguz.com 1st of 2 in this piece
- PK
Paul Krugman quoted
Trade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…
Their wordsThe jury is still out on that one: So far there is little evidence for either the massive job losses or the soaring productivity growth industry leaders threatened/promised, but it’s still early days.
- ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz quoted
Their wordsAI, for both better and worse, turns Bad At Job into Good At Job, making it less relevant that the humans are Bad At Job via doing the things.
- 1 day earlier
- DR
Dave Rupert quoted
Front-end web developer at Paravel and co-host of the ShopTalk Show podcast
Their wordsBetting your career against the thing (it seems) all companies are hyper-scaling towards is a big bet. Either you're right and the world will always need people who know how software works, or you're wrong and you're left in the dust... or we're all steam rolled by the errant contraption.
- NS
Noah Smith quoted
Our readingDomain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them.
Their wordsDomain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them, because they mistake human difficulties for universal difficulty.
↗Two missing pieces in the AI safety discussionnoahpinion.blog
- TC
Tyler Cowen quoted
Economist at George Mason University
Their wordsDo note that over time the allocation of humans to tasks will evolve so that more of the humans become more productive, not less.
↗Does AI assistance enhance or erode expertise?marginalrevolution.com
- 1 day earlier
- VR
Venkatesh Rao quoted
Writer and consultant on technology
Their wordsOnce intelligence ceases to be scarce, its complements become more important.
↗The Accelerationist Case for Frontier Pacingcontraptions.venkateshrao.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- TC
Tyler Cowen quoted
Their wordsIn the model, intelligence and Polanyi knowledge combine to produce output. Substitutability is fairly limited. For instance, if you have problems of norms in your office, a mere dose of AI-drenched technocratic knowledge does not usually solve those problems. Sometimes it even can make those problems worse, by empowering rent-seekers further. Intelligence and Polanyi knowledge are not quite Leontief complements, but they are mostly complements.
↗A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com