Latest
What was added here most recently, newest first. The date on each row is when it was said; the heading is when it arrived.
The shading behind a date shows how recently it was said: full within a month, empty after three years.
1 added · Noah Smith
6 added · Brad DeLong (3), Noah Smith (3)
- Elections are often decided by narrow margins. Brad DeLong ·
- The outcome of elections is often determined by a small number of key districts. Brad DeLong ·
- The most likely districts to determine the House outcome can be identified in advance. Brad DeLong ·
- The decline of empires can lead to the loss of their core territories. Noah Smith ·
- Increasing funding for the highest-funded schools can be beneficial. Noah Smith ·
- Some schools serve as substitute parents for certain students. Noah Smith ·
5 added · Pieter Levels (3), Noah Smith (1), Thorsten Ball (1)
- Some tourists visiting China from America write positively about it Noah Smith ·
- Experience can make it harder to try new things Pieter Levels ·
- AGI might create a two-tier split in society Pieter Levels ·
- Real estate and land will be valuable in a post-AGI world Pieter Levels ·
- New technology will create moments of delight, whimsy, and value in many aspects of life. Thorsten Ball ·
7 added · Gergely Orosz (3), Kent C. Dodds (2), Andrew Dessler (1), David Heinemeier Hansson (1)
- Climate change will make it harder for Texas graduates to manage risks and identify business opportunities. Andrew Dessler ·
- Many modern agents support browsers. Kent C. Dodds ·
- Scripting with a browser can be useful for repeatable tasks. Kent C. Dodds ·
- It's getting harder to determine if a trending video or post about a startup launch is real or fabricated Gergely Orosz ·
- Startups use new technologies to attract developers who are restricted from using them at their current company. Gergely Orosz ·
- AI agents are increasingly important for the discovery of small businesses. Gergely Orosz ·
- AI has ended the monopoly of programmers on computer functionality. David Heinemeier Hansson ·
4 added · Mario Zechner (1), Pieter Levels (1), Gergely Orosz (1), David Heinemeier Hansson (1)
- AI models are now capable of producing great code Mario Zechner ·
- Wealth can lead to isolation. Pieter Levels ·
- Google Firebase's status page is not updated during or after a global outage. Gergely Orosz ·
- The world needs to adapt to a paradigm shift caused by artificial intelligence David Heinemeier Hansson ·
8 added · M.G. Siegler (3), Henry Farrell (2), Paul Graham (2), Noah Smith (1)
- Trump has a close relationship with Russia. Noah Smith ·
- A glorious transhumanist future awaits us if we get AI right Henry Farrell ·
- The ideology of technological salvation guides AI development Henry Farrell ·
- Apple will release a home device centered around Siri AI M.G. Siegler ·
- A nimble Apple can operate with constant iteration M.G. Siegler ·
- Anthropic's model may not be good enough M.G. Siegler ·
- Many systems rely on human limitations that will be exposed as AI advances Paul Graham ·
- The limitations of human operation will soon be revealed as systems break Paul Graham ·
8 added · Thorsten Ball (3), David Heinemeier Hansson (2), Noah Smith (1), Kent C. Dodds (1) and 1 more
- Success can be followed by failure due to one's own flaws. Noah Smith ·
- The rise of AI-generated books had a significant negative impact on physical bookstores. Kent C. Dodds ·
- The performance of models is hard to evaluate due to varying conditions. Thorsten Ball ·
- Software can be considered slop if it meets certain functional and maintainable criteria. Thorsten Ball ·
- Runners can be used as an alternative to orbs in certain situations. Thorsten Ball ·
- Most Americans favor slowing or stopping AI development Zvi Mowshowitz ·
- The cost of technology can be very high when adjusted for inflation. David Heinemeier Hansson ·
- Code reviews are starting to fade in many places David Heinemeier Hansson ·
8 added · Brad DeLong (3), Paul Krugman (2), Matthew Yglesias (2), Daniel W. Drezner (1)
- Digital arts are losing jobs while live entertainment grows Brad DeLong ·
- AI may be contributing to job losses in the creative arts sector Brad DeLong ·
- The creative-arts sector is heavily impacted by technological change Brad DeLong ·
- There is always a tradeoff between a system's efficiency and its resilience. Daniel W. Drezner ·
- Americans perceive the job market as being the worst it has been since Covid Paul Krugman ·
- The overall economic environment looks really bad for Trump and his party Paul Krugman ·
- Blue-state Republicans can be competitive by applying a business-friendly, culturally conservative approach Matthew Yglesias ·
- NIMBY conservatism in blue states is not a problem-solving approach Matthew Yglesias ·
8 added · Tyler Cowen (3), Noah Smith (2), Mario Zechner (1), Gergely Orosz (1) and 1 more
- Cooking food yourself provides a deeper understanding of it. Mario Zechner ·
- The competitiveness of the AI modeling industry is unknown. Noah Smith ·
- Rent in America is becoming more affordable Noah Smith ·
- Most places will drop Leetcode Gergely Orosz ·
- AI will not lead to mass unemployment Tyler Cowen ·
- Spain's political economy hinders productivity growth Tyler Cowen ·
- Spain has potential for economic growth through renewable energy Tyler Cowen ·
- Converting certain tasks can be done quickly and affordably with current technology. David Heinemeier Hansson ·
8 added · Andrej Karpathy (2), Pieter Levels (2), Mario Zechner (1), Noah Smith (1) and 2 more
- New modes of interaction with agents are needed Mario Zechner ·
- Social media operates to the detriment of society Noah Smith ·
- LLMs will do more legwork autonomously Andrej Karpathy ·
- Large language models can help create custom software artifacts Andrej Karpathy ·
- AI commoditizes media formats, reducing their value Pieter Levels ·
- Earning attention requires uniqueness and originality Pieter Levels ·
- A person leading a large team reveals their leadership qualities. Gergely Orosz ·
- Old MacBooks have a lot of remaining useful life David Heinemeier Hansson ·
7 added · Noah Smith (2), Gergely Orosz (2), Pieter Levels (1), Peter Steinberger (1) and 1 more
- Nuclear fission power has been extremely disappointing. Noah Smith ·
- Public concern about AI has shifted from job replacement to loss of control. Noah Smith ·
- High speeds can cause parts of an airplane to fall off. Pieter Levels ·
- Apple's developer agreement restricts cross-platform releases Peter Steinberger ·
- Language models frequently provide inaccurate information. Gergely Orosz ·
- Some cloud providers have less red tape than others for quota increases. Gergely Orosz ·
- Online store design can be fun and democratized. Tobias Lütke ·
8 added · Peter Steinberger (2), David Heinemeier Hansson (2), Mario Zechner (1), Pieter Levels (1) and 2 more
- A person should know what they want, and that they want something Mario Zechner ·
- Westerners are unaware of the modernity and wealth of non-Western regions Pieter Levels ·
- A technology can remove the friction of dealing with another human being. Peter Steinberger ·
- btrfs copy-on-write feature is great for worktrees but bad for sqlite Peter Steinberger ·
- The era of all-remote video interview hiring processes is over. Gergely Orosz ·
- AI models' capabilities are rapidly changing Thorsten Ball ·
- Good deeds and good faith will eventually yield positive results David Heinemeier Hansson ·
- Germany has fewer road fatalities per mile traveled than the US David Heinemeier Hansson ·
8 added · Scott Alexander (3), Sam Altman (2), Noah Smith (1), François Chollet (1) and 1 more
- The competitiveness of the AI model-making industry is uncertain. Noah Smith ·
- AI subscriptions should be usable across different platforms Sam Altman ·
- Some people can build whole startups in a short period of time. Sam Altman ·
- AI can help identify medical issues that doctors miss Scott Alexander ·
- AI can assist in medical diagnosis and treatment planning Scott Alexander ·
- AI can have a significant positive impact on people's lives Scott Alexander ·
- LRMs perform better on ARC 1 than LLMs of similar size. François Chollet ·
- Not streaming a talk can be surprisingly powerful Paul Graham ·
8 added · Brad DeLong (3), John Scalzi (2), M.G. Siegler (2), Bill McKibben (1)
- Permitting reform may not significantly reduce carbon emissions if it also enables more fossil fuel projects Bill McKibben ·
- Having separate identities for private and work life is healthier and provides a better product experience Brad DeLong ·
- A self made legible to all roles at once maximizes role strain rather than resolving it Brad DeLong ·
- The world coheres because people follow scripts for different roles Brad DeLong ·
- Using popular culture examples can make management theory more engaging and accessible. John Scalzi ·
- Effective management involves considering the well-being of people and the environment. John Scalzi ·
- The new home device will be priced around $499 M.G. Siegler ·
- Siri AI is now good enough for Apple to build a home device around M.G. Siegler ·
6 added · Brad DeLong (5), John H. Cochrane (1)
- Solar power's global rise is driven by supply-side factors, particularly Chinese export deflation Brad DeLong ·
- The US rooftop solar market is stalled due to policy shifts, not declining hardware costs Brad DeLong ·
- Cheap Chinese solar panels are transforming energy generation in areas with scarce, expensive, or unreliable power Brad DeLong ·
- Deporting immigrants tends to lower native-born employment and wages Brad DeLong ·
- There is no employment or wage-growth boom for native-born workers after deportations Brad DeLong ·
- Central banks should hold inflation-protected bonds as primary assets John H. Cochrane ·
How recent
The shading behind a date fills in quarters: said within a month, six months, a year, or three years. Empty means more than three years ago. It says when, not whether it still holds — a change of mind is marked on the claim itself.
Striped means we only know the words existed by that date; they may be older.