Tyler Cowen
Economist at George Mason University, co-author of Marginal Revolution, host of Conversations with Tyler. Writes in short, dense claims about economics, culture and AI, and has moved his position on AI in public more than once.
Tyler Cowen did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
Filter All topics · Newest first
-
Their wordsBased on my interviews and research, I strongly support most of the report’s recommendations and conclusions, and I believe the wider science community should as well.
- 5 days earlier
-
Their wordsSecond, Bob is the greatest commentator on other people’s work of all time.
- 1 day earlier
-
Their wordsHer works are not just great cookbooks, they are among the best books period.
- 13 days earlier
-
Their wordsAt times we forget what an amazing wonder the Bundesrepublik Deutschland was. At the end of the World War II, Germany was one of the sickest and cruelest human societies in history, ever. Not too many years later, it was one of the best and most successful societies ever.
-
Their wordsBy the 1980s, living standards had caught up to the United States, with the provision of public goods sometimes superior. The country was fully democratic, pro-Western, and largely pro-American. Their rail system and postal service were amongst the best ever created.
-
Their wordsSo many policy mistakes have been made. So much leadership lost in the areas mentioned above. So much pessimism, sadly a lot of it seems to be justified.
- 2 days earlier
-
Their wordsIn my view, successful societies accept challenges and meet them. Solving problems, bit by bit, is the best way to ensure that we have the capabilities to meet big and truly existential risks, should those risks come along.
-
Their wordsMany people panicked about the possibility of strong AI models killing us all. That fear was not based on peer-reviewed scientific research showing a high chance of doom, nor was doom indicated in any market prices of the time, including measures of risk.
- 1 day earlier
-
Their wordsYou could say the country has maintained the (few) strengths of the former Soviet Union, and is arguably the only place that has.
-
Their wordsArmenia is not dirt cheap, but it is much cheaper than most of Europe and so can be considered a bargain in relative terms.
- 3 days earlier
-
governmentsemiconductorsrecursive self-improvement
Their wordsThe policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.
↗Banning self-recursive improvement in AI models?marginalrevolution.com
- 6 days earlier
-
Our reading
AI policy discussions should start with China rather than treating it as an afterthought.
Their wordsWhatever your ideas for regulating AI, I say start with China. Do not put China as an afterthought at the end of your proposal, mentioned in a vague wish that something good ought to happen and that maybe the future of humanity can be secured.
↗When discussing AI policy, start with Chinamarginalrevolution.com
-
Our reading
China declined U.S. nuclear-talk proposals in 2023 and broke off meaningful arms control talks.
Their wordsDuring the 2023 U.S.-China nuclear talks, America proposed missile-launch notifications, a nuclear crisis hotline, and processes to limit the use of outer space for military conflict. China declined all of those. Blame the U.S. if you wish (do we always keep our word?), but that is what happened. China also broke off meaningful arms control talks.
↗When discussing AI policy, start with Chinamarginalrevolution.com
-
Their wordsIf you are reading proposals or for that matter tweets for AI regulation, and the writer does not deal with these China issues in a forthright and very specific manner, you should be very suspicious indeed.
↗When discussing AI policy, start with Chinamarginalrevolution.com
-
Their wordsWe need much more effort in this direction, and I hope this subfield rises in status rapidly.
- 2 days earlier
-
Their wordsDo note that over time the allocation of humans to tasks will evolve so that more of the humans become more productive, not less.
↗Does AI assistance enhance or erode expertise?marginalrevolution.com
-
Their wordsRCTs somehow have the odd disadvantage of requiring too many things to be held constant, and so they can miss the benefits of longer-term adjustments.
↗Does AI assistance enhance or erode expertise?marginalrevolution.com
- 1 day earlier
-
Their wordsIn the model, intelligence and Polanyi knowledge combine to produce output. Substitutability is fairly limited. For instance, if you have problems of norms in your office, a mere dose of AI-drenched technocratic knowledge does not usually solve those problems. Sometimes it even can make those problems worse, by empowering rent-seekers further. Intelligence and Polanyi knowledge are not quite Leontief complements, but they are mostly complements.
↗A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
-
Their wordsIn this model, if someone or something could “commandeer” the Intelligence sector, their power over society would be much more limited than it might appear at first. The world does not change that much at first, because the necessary complements are lacking.
↗A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
-
Their wordsNow recently the U.S. economy has experienced a huge positive shock to its Intelligence, with more to come. The core prediction is that this increases marginal returns, employment, and real wages in the Polanyi knowledge sector.
↗A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
- 1 day earlier
-
Their wordsI expect the funding for mathematics, and the interest in the topic, to rise considerably, at least in the medium term.
-
Their wordsI expect the benefits to economic science from AI will be enormous, even if current practitioners cannot foresee most of those benefits today.
- 2 days earlier
-
Their wordsThus, Muhammad is one of the three or four most consequential leaders ever.
↗My very interesting Conversation with Jared Diamondmarginalrevolution.com
-
Their wordsIt still seems in expected value terms, Christ made an enormous difference.
↗My very interesting Conversation with Jared Diamondmarginalrevolution.com
- 1 day earlier
-
Their wordswhile the money premium from college is falling, the friends and marriage premium from college is going up and probably will rise further still.
-
Their wordsI do think going to college makes less sense, at the margin, than it did say seven or eight years ago
- 3 days earlier
-
Their wordsI am happy to admit that the answers here are far from obvious, and that I am myself expecting prices to rise somewhat.
- 4 days earlier
-
Their wordsI do not see AI as driving these changes, but an interesting result nonetheless
↗The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Eramarginalrevolution.com
- 1 day earlier
-
Their wordsYet each time, we drastically overreacted, letting ourselves get swept up in a climate of fear after one emotionally vivid incident
-
Their wordsWhen it comes to the cybersecurity risks from advanced AI, very likely they will not come close to being as bad as either Covid or global warming.