korrents

On changing your mind

What people here say about the act itself: holding a belief, testing it, moving it, or not. Who actually changed their mind is a separate record.

When the facts move

Being wrong is something to love, because it is what lets you define the problem more clearly, find the right solution, and solve it faster.

  1. Boris Cherny Creator of Claude Code at Anthropic I love being wrong. It is my favorite, because it helps me more clearly define the problem, find the right solution, learn more quickly, and solve the problem. I am often wrong — Boris Cherny's Blogborischerny.com · 19 Sept 2026
    Their wordsI love being wrong. It is my favorite, because it helps me more clearly define the problem, find the right solution, learn more quickly, and solve the problem.

    ↗I am often wrong — Boris Cherny's Blogborischerny.com

    19 Sept 2026

Changing your mind in light of new facts should be celebrated rather than held against you.

Mental modelsProbabilistic thinking, Error correction

  1. Gergely Orosz Writes The Pragmatic Engineer IDK why anyone has a problem with having strong opinions, weakly held. @GergelyOrosz on Xx.com · 7 Sept 2026
    Their wordsIDK why anyone has a problem with having strong opinions, weakly held.

    ↗@GergelyOrosz on Xx.com

    7 Sept 2026

  2. Pieter Levels Dutch bootstrapper who builds and runs his internet startups alone The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held and change them when new information arises The dumbest people I know keep their opinions the same just so they can remain consistent Time changes too fast try remain consistent, better to sail the waves to wherever they are taking you! The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly heldlevels.io · 7 Sept 2026
    Their wordsThe smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held and change them when new information arises The dumbest people I know keep their opinions the same just so they can remain consistent Time changes too fast try remain consistent, better to sail the waves to wherever they are taking you!

    ↗The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly heldlevels.io

    7 Sept 2026

  3. David Heinemeier Hansson Creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals I'd rather celebrate people updating their priors than dunking on them for being late. Make it cool to change your mind when you realize the facts have changed! @dhh on Xx.com · 3 Sept 2026
    Their wordsI'd rather celebrate people updating their priors than dunking on them for being late. Make it cool to change your mind when you realize the facts have changed!

    ↗@dhh on Xx.com

    3 Sept 2026

  4. Stephan Guyenet Obesity researcher with a PhD in neuroscience Inability to change one’s mind is a hallmark of an irrational belief system. Quickly assessing the credibility of public expertsstephanguyenet.com · 30 Aug 2018All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsInability to change one’s mind is a hallmark of an irrational belief system.

    ↗Quickly assessing the credibility of public expertsstephanguyenet.com

    30 Aug 2018

The smartest people the author knows hold strong opinions weakly and change them with new information, while the dumbest keep opinions fixed just to stay consistent.

  1. Pieter Levels Dutch bootstrapper who builds and runs his internet startups alone The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held and change them when new information arises The dumbest people I know keep their opinions the same just so they can remain consistent Time changes too fast try remain consistent, better to sail the waves to wherever they are taking you! The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly heldlevels.io · 7 Sept 2026
    Their wordsThe smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly held and change them when new information arises The dumbest people I know keep their opinions the same just so they can remain consistent Time changes too fast try remain consistent, better to sail the waves to wherever they are taking you!

    ↗The smartest people I know have strong opinions weakly heldlevels.io

    7 Sept 2026

In a fast-changing industry, anyone genuinely keeping up will change their mind as the developments happen.

  1. Gergely Orosz Writes The Pragmatic Engineer Especially in technology - one of the fastest changing industries - anyone keeping up with developments WILL change their minds when those developments happen!! @GergelyOrosz on Xx.com · 7 Sept 2026
    Their wordsEspecially in technology - one of the fastest changing industries - anyone keeping up with developments WILL change their minds when those developments happen!!

    ↗@GergelyOrosz on Xx.com

    7 Sept 2026

An “AI trained on person X” cannot stand in for that person, because people change their minds in light of new information and the model does not.

  1. Gergely Orosz Writes The Pragmatic Engineer This is, by the way, also why the category of “an AI trained on person X” is absolutely BS. People change their minds in light of new information, the “AI trained on X’s writing/videos/tweets” does not @GergelyOrosz on Xx.com · 7 Sept 2026
    Their wordsThis is, by the way, also why the category of “an AI trained on person X” is absolutely BS. People change their minds in light of new information, the “AI trained on X’s writing/videos/tweets” does not

    ↗@GergelyOrosz on Xx.com

    7 Sept 2026

Working with models has stopped being a theoretical science and become an empirical one, so your priors from computer science class are a hindrance.

  1. Boris Cherny Creator of Claude Code at Anthropic And it's really about being empirical. So forget all of the things that you learned about past models. Forget everything that you've learned about computer science theory in class. Look at the model, try to do a task, see where it struggles, and then based on that adjust. So it's just like very much become it's not a theoretical science, it's become an empirical science. Boris Cherny: We Cut 80% of Claude Code's Promptyoutube.com · 27 Jul 2026 · 31:41 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsAnd it's really about being empirical. So forget all of the things that you learned about past models. Forget everything that you've learned about computer science theory in class. Look at the model, try to do a task, see where it struggles, and then based on that adjust. So it's just like very much become it's not a theoretical science, it's become an empirical science.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 31:41 plays here

    ↗Boris Cherny: We Cut 80% of Claude Code's Promptyoutube.com

    27 Jul 2026 · video · 35m · spoken · machine transcript

Building at the AI frontier is science rather than programming: you pose hypotheses and invalidate them again and again.

  1. Clay Bavor Co-founder of the AI agent company Sierra so it's not a simple matter of programming it's not you know typing into a keyboard until or or I guess asking cursor to do something until a piece of software emerges, it's exploration, it's discovery, it's posing hypotheses and validating or invalidating those again and again and again. How is AI Different Than Other Technology Waves? (With Bret Taylor and Clay Bavor) [ACQ2]youtube.com · 18 Aug 2025 · 0:58:29 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsso it's not a simple matter of programming it's not you know typing into a keyboard until or or I guess asking cursor to do something until a piece of software emerges, it's exploration, it's discovery, it's posing hypotheses and validating or invalidating those again and again and again.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 0:58:29 plays here

    ↗How is AI Different Than Other Technology Waves? (With Bret Taylor and Clay Bavor) [ACQ2]youtube.com

    18 Aug 2025 · video · 1h 13m · spoken · machine transcript

Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong.

  1. David Reich Geneticist at Harvard Medical School The work that I've been involved in is consistently shown that I was wrong in my biases coming into the work and I've really been almost traumatized by this. Like again and again I've come into a project with some kind of guess about what the data was showing and then the data doesn't show that. David Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farmingyoutube.com · 8 May 2026 · 1:54:40 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsThe work that I've been involved in is consistently shown that I was wrong in my biases coming into the work and I've really been almost traumatized by this. Like again and again I've come into a project with some kind of guess about what the data was showing and then the data doesn't show that.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 1:54:40 plays here

    ↗David Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farmingyoutube.com

    8 May 2026 · video · 2h 13m · spoken · machine transcript

Always try your stupid ideas when the experiment is cheap and reversible, because the one that works has no competition.

Mental modelOne-way and two-way doors

  1. Kent Beck Creator of extreme programming and test-driven development Always try your stupid ideas if you can do it cheaply and reversibly. Jumping off a bridge is not a reversible decision. Not talking about that. I'm talking about stuff like this where you're just like, "Here's a stupid idea." 99 times out of a 100 it'll fail. But that one time you won't have any competition cuz nobody else is stupid enough to try this idea. How Kent Beck shapes the software engineering industryyoutube.com · 1 Jul 2026 · 1:20:14 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsAlways try your stupid ideas if you can do it cheaply and reversibly. Jumping off a bridge is not a reversible decision. Not talking about that. I'm talking about stuff like this where you're just like, "Here's a stupid idea." 99 times out of a 100 it'll fail. But that one time you won't have any competition cuz nobody else is stupid enough to try this idea.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 1:20:14 plays here

    ↗How Kent Beck shapes the software engineering industryyoutube.com

    1 Jul 2026 · video · 2h 28m · spoken · machine transcript

You cannot state the problem clearly without first trying and getting it wrong; the effort that looks wasted is how the thesis gets found.

  1. Nicole Forsgren Researcher of software delivery performance Oh, I agree. You know, one is being able to clearly articulate the problem or the thesis or the idea. Without trying, I don't get there. Nicole Forsgren: Leading high-performing engineering teams in the age of AI - The Pragmatic Summityoutube.com · 22 Mar 2026 · 15:57 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsOh, I agree. You know, one is being able to clearly articulate the problem or the thesis or the idea. Without trying, I don't get there.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 15:57 plays here

    ↗Nicole Forsgren: Leading high-performing engineering teams in the age of AI - The Pragmatic Summityoutube.com

    22 Mar 2026 · video · 32m · spoken · machine transcript

A theory gets abandoned when the old explanation becomes visibly insufficient: special relativity made Newtonian gravity's action at a distance impossible, and that was the forcing function.

  1. Michael Nielsen Physicist, writer and researcher Um and so, it's not a big leap to realize, "Oh, we have a big problem here." Um and so, you know, that's kind of the that's the forcing function there. It's it's you've realized that your old explanation is not sufficient. You need something new. Michael Nielsen – Why aliens will have a different tech stack than usyoutube.com · 7 Apr 2026 · 0:39:29 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsUm and so, it's not a big leap to realize, "Oh, we have a big problem here." Um and so, you know, that's kind of the that's the forcing function there. It's it's you've realized that your old explanation is not sufficient. You need something new.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 0:39:29 plays here

    ↗Michael Nielsen – Why aliens will have a different tech stack than usyoutube.com

    7 Apr 2026 · video · 2h 03m · spoken · machine transcript

Claims that can lose

Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake.

Mental modelProbabilistic thinking

  1. Scott Alexander Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten This wasn't exactly a mistake, since it's not wrong to give 60-40 odds on a false thing, but it seems worth acknowledging here. Mistakesastralcodexten.com · 1 Feb 2023
    Their wordsThis wasn't exactly a mistake, since it's not wrong to give 60-40 odds on a false thing, but it seems worth acknowledging here.

    ↗Mistakesastralcodexten.com

    1 Feb 2023

"There is no empirical evidence against my position" is not an argument for it.

  1. Dan Luu Programmer who has worked on hardware verification at Centaur Maybe, but if the strongest statement you can make for your position is that there's no empirical evidence against the position, that's not much of a position. Literature review on the benefits of static typesdanluu.com · 7 Nov 2014All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsMaybe, but if the strongest statement you can make for your position is that there's no empirical evidence against the position, that's not much of a position.

    ↗Literature review on the benefits of static typesdanluu.com

    7 Nov 2014

The AI-extinction position is non-scientific: it offers no testable hypothesis, nothing that would falsify it, and no threshold for danger.

  1. Marc Andreessen Co-founder of Netscape and of the venture firm Andreessen Horowitz My response is that their position is non-scientific – What is the testable hypothesis? What would falsify the hypothesis? How do we know when we are getting into a danger zone? Why AI Will Save The Worldpmarca.substack.com · 6 Jun 2023
    Their wordsMy response is that their position is non-scientific – What is the testable hypothesis? What would falsify the hypothesis? How do we know when we are getting into a danger zone?

    ↗Why AI Will Save The Worldpmarca.substack.com

    6 Jun 2023

A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.

Mental modelProbabilistic thinking

  1. Gary Klein Research psychologist who founded naturalistic decision making I may have I may be an investor. I have a track record of calling the market right in the last five times. People say, "Wow, he really knows what he's talking about." But there are lots of people who are trying to predict which way the market is going to go. And some of them are going to get it right by chance. And people assume it's because they know what they're what they're doing, and in fact they're just the lucky ones. Insights for Making Better Decisions | Gary Klein | Knowledge Project 144youtube.com · 9 Aug 2022 · 0:21:32 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsI may have I may be an investor. I have a track record of calling the market right in the last five times. People say, "Wow, he really knows what he's talking about." But there are lots of people who are trying to predict which way the market is going to go. And some of them are going to get it right by chance. And people assume it's because they know what they're what they're doing, and in fact they're just the lucky ones.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 0:21:32 plays here

    ↗Insights for Making Better Decisions | Gary Klein | Knowledge Project 144youtube.com

    9 Aug 2022 · video · 1h 39m · spoken · machine transcript

A study should be interpreted at exactly the level of certainty its design supports, no higher and no lower.

  1. Peter Attia Physician and founder of Early Medical Every study deserves to be interpreted at exactly the level of certainty its design can support. Multifactorial trials: taking apart the kitchen sinkpeterattiamd.com · 15 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsEvery study deserves to be interpreted at exactly the level of certainty its design can support.

    ↗Multifactorial trials: taking apart the kitchen sinkpeterattiamd.com

    15 Aug 2026

Mathematics gives practitioners corrective feedback on being wrong that moral philosophy lacks.

  1. Neel Nanda Runs the mechanistic interpretability team at Google DeepMind Mathematicians get feedback re whether there proofs work in a way that, as far as I can tell, moral philosophy doesn't Post 47: How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safetyneelnanda.io · 27 Feb 2022All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsMathematicians get feedback re whether there proofs work in a way that, as far as I can tell, moral philosophy doesn't

    ↗Post 47: How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safetyneelnanda.io

    27 Feb 2022

Much of the wisdom programmers pass on to each other is nonsense that nobody ever tested, and refusing to be dogmatic about untested practice is what marks out a good engineer.

Mental modelFirst principles

  1. Casey Muratori Game and engine programmer I find there's a lot of like received programming wisdom that's just nonsense. Like clearly no one's ever tested it and if they did they would have found out that it's that there's no actual basis for it. Why performant code matters (but gets widely ignored), with Casey Muratoriyoutube.com · 26 Aug 2026 · 1:32:14 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsI find there's a lot of like received programming wisdom that's just nonsense. Like clearly no one's ever tested it and if they did they would have found out that it's that there's no actual basis for it.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 1:32:14 plays here

    ↗Why performant code matters (but gets widely ignored), with Casey Muratoriyoutube.com

    26 Aug 2026 · video · 1h 53m · spoken · machine transcript

What gets in the way

Organisations say they want disagreement but charge social capital for it, until people stop evaluating the argument and start evaluating the source.

Mental modelIncentives

  1. Sunil Pai Systems and developer-tools engineer at Cloudflare as of 2026 we say we want disagreement, but every disagreement costs the person making it a little social/political capital. do it often enough and you become the negative person. people stop evaluating the argument and start evaluating the source. every company needs a cassandrasunilpai.dev · 9 Aug 2026
    Their wordswe say we want disagreement, but every disagreement costs the person making it a little social/political capital. do it often enough and you become the negative person. people stop evaluating the argument and start evaluating the source.

    ↗every company needs a cassandrasunilpai.dev

    9 Aug 2026

Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds.

  1. Adam Grant Organizational psychologist and professor at the Wharton School We know from decades of research that blaming and shaming only leads people to get defensive, dig in their heels, or tune you out altogether. Silence Is Not Necessarily Violenceadamgrant.substack.com · 9 Jun 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsWe know from decades of research that blaming and shaming only leads people to get defensive, dig in their heels, or tune you out altogether.

    ↗Silence Is Not Necessarily Violenceadamgrant.substack.com

    9 Jun 2026

When somebody accuses you of being arrogant about an idea, almost all they ever mean is that they disagree with you.

  1. Sean Carroll Theoretical physicist at Johns Hopkins University Yeah, it is interesting because, when people react against you by saying you are being arrogant about this, 99.999% of the time, all they mean is I disagree. That’s all they really mean, right? Sean Carroll: General Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, Black Holes & Aliens | Lex Fridman Podcast #428youtube.com · 22 Apr 2024 · 2:27:40 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsYeah, it is interesting because, when people react against you by saying you are being arrogant about this, 99.999% of the time, all they mean is I disagree. That’s all they really mean, right?

    Where this was said

    Watch from 2:27:40 plays here

    ↗Sean Carroll: General Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, Black Holes & Aliens | Lex Fridman Podcast #428youtube.com

    22 Apr 2024 · video · 2h 35m · spoken · official transcript

People gravitate toward arrogant leaders in uncertain times because they mistake swagger for strength and skill.

  1. Adam Grant Organizational psychologist and professor at the Wharton School People are more drawn to arrogant leaders in an uncertain world, because they mistake swagger for strength and skill. The Allure of Narcissistic Leaders and the Forgotten Joy of Being Ordinaryadamgrant.substack.com · 24 May 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsPeople are more drawn to arrogant leaders in an uncertain world, because they mistake swagger for strength and skill.

    ↗The Allure of Narcissistic Leaders and the Forgotten Joy of Being Ordinaryadamgrant.substack.com

    24 May 2026

Fixation errors come from explaining away anomalies and holding on to a wrong first impression until it is far too late.

Mental modelCognitive biases

  1. Gary Klein Research psychologist who founded naturalistic decision making So we we want people, that's the way we break out of fixation, is we notice the anomalies. The way we get stuck in fixation and making fixation errors is we explain away the anomalies, hold on to the original wrong impression until it's far too late. Insights for Making Better Decisions | Gary Klein | Knowledge Project 144youtube.com · 9 Aug 2022 · 0:40:47 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsSo we we want people, that's the way we break out of fixation, is we notice the anomalies. The way we get stuck in fixation and making fixation errors is we explain away the anomalies, hold on to the original wrong impression until it's far too late.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 0:40:47 plays here

    ↗Insights for Making Better Decisions | Gary Klein | Knowledge Project 144youtube.com

    9 Aug 2022 · video · 1h 39m · spoken · machine transcript

Talking to customers about your product risks discovering that you are wrong.

  1. Steve Coast Founder of OpenStreetMap The problem with talking to the customer for anything you are making is that you might be wrong. In Defense of OpenStreetMap's Data Modelstevecoast.com · 6 Jun 2022All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThe problem with talking to the customer for anything you are making is that you might be wrong.

    ↗In Defense of OpenStreetMap's Data Modelstevecoast.com

    6 Jun 2022

Frequent conversations with customers continually correct a founder's mistaken assumptions about the market.

Mental modelFeedback loops

  1. Arvid Kahl Software entrepreneur who bootstrapped and sold… Your assumptions will constantly clash with reality, and they will be refined slightly every single time you have a conversation. The 1% Improvement Myth: Why Customer Conversations Beat Micro-Improvements Every Timethebootstrappedfounder.com · 23 Jan 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsYour assumptions will constantly clash with reality, and they will be refined slightly every single time you have a conversation.

    ↗The 1% Improvement Myth: Why Customer Conversations Beat Micro-Improvements Every Timethebootstrappedfounder.com

    23 Jan 2026

Convincing others to care and act matters more than simply being right.

  1. Eugene Yan Member of technical staff at Anthropic Being right is less than half the battle. You also have to convince others that you're right, and more importantly, convince them to care enough to act on it. Advice for New Principal Tech ICs (i.e., Notes to Myself)eugeneyan.com · 19 Oct 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsBeing right is less than half the battle. You also have to convince others that you're right, and more importantly, convince them to care enough to act on it.

    ↗Advice for New Principal Tech ICs (i.e., Notes to Myself)eugeneyan.com

    19 Oct 2025

A large fraction of what the people around you believe is mistaken, and nobody is going to teach you to think for yourself.

Mental modelCognitive biases

  1. Patrick Collison by Co-founder and CEO of Stripe and co-founder of the Arc Institute More broadly, nobody is going to teach you to think for yourself. A large fraction of what people around you believe is mistaken. Internalize this and practice coming up with your own worldview. Advicepatrickcollison.com · by 5 Jul 2018
    Their wordsMore broadly, nobody is going to teach you to think for yourself. A large fraction of what people around you believe is mistaken. Internalize this and practice coming up with your own worldview.

    ↗Advicepatrickcollison.com

    by 5 Jul 2018

Holding still

A top-down aesthetic belief is what sustains a researcher when the experiments contradict them, because data alone cannot tell a wrong idea from a bug.

  1. Ilya Sutskever Co-founder and chief scientist of Safe Superintelligence Inc. And then the top down belief is the thing that sustains you when the experiments contradict you. Because if you just trust the data all the time, well, sometimes you can be doing a correct thing, but there's a bug. Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com · 25 Nov 2025 · 1:34:54 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsAnd then the top down belief is the thing that sustains you when the experiments contradict you. Because if you just trust the data all the time, well, sometimes you can be doing a correct thing, but there's a bug.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 1:34:54 plays here

    ↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com

    25 Nov 2025 · video · 1h 36m · spoken · machine transcript

The only way to build something that matters is to develop conviction in a set of beliefs nobody else agrees with yet, long before they become consensus.

  1. Alexandr Wang Founder of Scale AI and, since 2025, Chief AI Officer… I think the the key thing is you need to develop conviction in a set of beliefs that nobody else um agrees with. Like, I think if you look at all the most successful companies in the world, um they were started at a time long before the sort of like core idea was popular. Alexandr Wang: “This is a Once-in-a-Civilization Opportunity”youtube.com · 29 Jul 2026 · 6:49 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsI think the the key thing is you need to develop conviction in a set of beliefs that nobody else um agrees with. Like, I think if you look at all the most successful companies in the world, um they were started at a time long before the sort of like core idea was popular.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 6:49 plays here

    ↗Alexandr Wang: “This is a Once-in-a-Civilization Opportunity”youtube.com

    29 Jul 2026 · video · 32m · spoken · machine transcript

I am a classicist rather than a contrarian: I am in step with what thinkers about the mind have always held, and content to be out of step with my own field for decades.

  1. Richard Sutton Computer scientist who founded the field of reinforcement learning I I really view myself as a classicist rather than as a contrarian. I go to what what the larger community of of thinkers about the mind have always thought. Richard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead endyoutube.com · 26 Sept 2025 · 0:47:17 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsI I really view myself as a classicist rather than as a contrarian. I go to what what the larger community of of thinkers about the mind have always thought.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 0:47:17 plays here

    ↗Richard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead endyoutube.com

    26 Sept 2025 · video · 1h 07m · spoken · machine transcript

Engineers will always ask for more data, so someone has to decide without certainty and own the risk to human life.

  1. Wayne Hale Retired NASA engineer and manager The engineers will always always always ask for more tests, more analysis, more time to get more information to be more certain of their conclusions. Flight Rationalewaynehale.wordpress.com · 5 Aug 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThe engineers will always always always ask for more tests, more analysis, more time to get more information to be more certain of their conclusions.

    ↗Flight Rationalewaynehale.wordpress.com

    5 Aug 2024

Under uncertainty, the best decision is the one that preserves the most future options.

  1. Chip Huyen Engineer and writer on machine-learning systems In the face of uncertainty, I lean towards the decision that would give me the most future options. Measuring personal growthhuyenchip.com · 17 Apr 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsIn the face of uncertainty, I lean towards the decision that would give me the most future options.

    ↗Measuring personal growthhuyenchip.com

    17 Apr 2024

Insisting on knowing whether you have talent, or started too late, closes doors that staying uncertain would have left open.

  1. George Saunders American short-story writer and novelist The more we know – the more we insist on being sure – the more doors we close. The Natural-Born Artist.georgesaunders.substack.com · 9 Jul 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThe more we know – the more we insist on being sure – the more doors we close.

    ↗The Natural-Born Artist.georgesaunders.substack.com

    9 Jul 2026

Why a person picked these

Every other collection on this site is built by a machine, matching a word or an embedding. Both were tried here and both fail, because a claim about revising a belief uses the same words as a person actually revising one: wrong, update, changed my mind. A pattern that catches one catches the other.

So a person picked these and sorted them into four groups. Take the groups as a reading, not a survey. Everyone's own words are printed under each heading, so the reading can be checked. Something missing?

The map

All 36 claims in our four groups, as one canvas. Pinch or scroll to zoom, drag to move, tap a claim to read it.

When the facts move 12 Being wrong is something to love, because it is what lets you define the problem more clearly, find the right solution, and solve it faster. — Boris Cherny Being wrong is somethingto love, because it iswhat lets you define the… Boris Cherny · 19 Sept 2026 When there is new data, you have to update your priors, even when the resulting churn feels thrashy. — Boris Cherny When there is new data,you have to update yourpriors, even when the… Boris Cherny · 19 Sept 2026 Changing your mind in light of new facts should be celebrated rather than held against you. — Gergely Orosz Changing your mind inlight of new facts shouldbe celebrated rather than… Gergely Orosz · 7 Sept 2026 The smartest people the author knows hold strong opinions weakly and change them with new information, while the dumbest keep opinions fixed just to stay consistent. — Pieter Levels The smartest people theauthor knows hold strongopinions weakly and… Pieter Levels · 7 Sept 2026 In a fast-changing industry, anyone genuinely keeping up will change their mind as the developments happen. — Gergely Orosz In a fast-changingindustry, anyonegenuinely keeping up will… Gergely Orosz · 7 Sept 2026 An “AI trained on person X” cannot stand in for that person, because people change their minds in light of new information and the model does not. — Gergely Orosz An “AI trained on personX” cannot stand in forthat person, because… Gergely Orosz · 7 Sept 2026 Working with models has stopped being a theoretical science and become an empirical one, so your priors from computer science class are a hindrance. — Boris Cherny Working with models hasstopped being atheoretical science and… Boris Cherny · 27 Jul 2026 Building at the AI frontier is science rather than programming: you pose hypotheses and invalidate them again and again. — Clay Bavor Building at the AIfrontier is sciencerather than programming… Clay Bavor · 18 Aug 2025 Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong. — David Reich Coming into a projectwith a guess about whatthe data will show has… David Reich · 8 May 2026 Always try your stupid ideas when the experiment is cheap and reversible, because the one that works has no competition. — Kent Beck Always try your stupidideas when the experimentis cheap and reversible… Kent Beck · 1 Jul 2026 You cannot state the problem clearly without first trying and getting it wrong; the effort that looks wasted is how the thesis gets found. — Nicole Forsgren You cannot state theproblem clearly withoutfirst trying and getting… Nicole Forsgren · 22 Mar 2026 A theory gets abandoned when the old explanation becomes visibly insufficient: special relativity made Newtonian gravity's action at a distance impossible, and that was the forcing function. — Michael Nielsen A theory gets abandonedwhen the old explanationbecomes visibly… Michael Nielsen · 7 Apr 2026 Claims that can lose 9 Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake. — Scott Alexander Giving something 60-40odds and being wrong isnot itself a mistake. Scott Alexander · 1 Feb 2023 A retraction can itself be wrong, and be worth retracting. — Scott Alexander A retraction can itselfbe wrong, and be worthretracting. Scott Alexander · 22 Jun 2023 "There is no empirical evidence against my position" is not an argument for it. — Dan Luu "There is no empiricalevidence against myposition" is not an… Dan Luu · 7 Nov 2014 The AI-extinction position is non-scientific: it offers no testable hypothesis, nothing that would falsify it, and no threshold for danger. — Marc Andreessen The AI-extinctionposition isnon-scientific: it offers… Marc Andreessen · 6 Jun 2023 A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — Gary Klein A run of correctforecasts is not evidenceof expertise, because… Gary Klein · 9 Aug 2022 A study should be interpreted at exactly the level of certainty its design supports, no higher and no lower. — Peter Attia A study should beinterpreted at exactlythe level of certainty… Peter Attia · 15 Aug 2026 The way to tell legal analysis from partisan lying is to distrust absolute certainty and to trust conceded ambiguity. — Ken White The way to tell legalanalysis from partisanlying is to distrust… Ken White · 2 Aug 2023 Mathematics gives practitioners corrective feedback on being wrong that moral philosophy lacks. — Neel Nanda Mathematics givespractitioners correctivefeedback on being wrong… Neel Nanda · 27 Feb 2022 Much of the wisdom programmers pass on to each other is nonsense that nobody ever tested, and refusing to be dogmatic about untested practice is what marks out a good engineer. — Casey Muratori Much of the wisdomprogrammers pass on toeach other is nonsense… Casey Muratori · 26 Aug 2026 What gets in the way 9 Organisations say they want disagreement but charge social capital for it, until people stop evaluating the argument and start evaluating the source. — Sunil Pai Organisations say theywant disagreement butcharge social capital for… Sunil Pai · 9 Aug 2026 Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds. — Adam Grant Blaming and shamingpeople only makes themdefensive, dig in their… Adam Grant · 9 Jun 2026 When somebody accuses you of being arrogant about an idea, almost all they ever mean is that they disagree with you. — Sean Carroll When somebody accuses youof being arrogant aboutan idea, almost all they… Sean Carroll · 22 Apr 2024 People gravitate toward arrogant leaders in uncertain times because they mistake swagger for strength and skill. — Adam Grant People gravitate towardarrogant leaders inuncertain times because… Adam Grant · 24 May 2026 Fixation errors come from explaining away anomalies and holding on to a wrong first impression until it is far too late. — Gary Klein Fixation errors come fromexplaining away anomaliesand holding on to a wrong… Gary Klein · 9 Aug 2022 Talking to customers about your product risks discovering that you are wrong. — Steve Coast Talking to customersabout your product risksdiscovering that you are… Steve Coast · 6 Jun 2022 Frequent conversations with customers continually correct a founder's mistaken assumptions about the market. — Arvid Kahl Frequent conversationswith customerscontinually correct a… Arvid Kahl · 23 Jan 2026 Convincing others to care and act matters more than simply being right. — Eugene Yan Convincing others to careand act matters more thansimply being right. Eugene Yan · 19 Oct 2025 A large fraction of what the people around you believe is mistaken, and nobody is going to teach you to think for yourself. — Patrick Collison A large fraction of whatthe people around youbelieve is mistaken, and… Patrick Collison · by 5 Jul 2018 Holding still 6 A top-down aesthetic belief is what sustains a researcher when the experiments contradict them, because data alone cannot tell a wrong idea from a bug. — Ilya Sutskever A top-down aestheticbelief is what sustains aresearcher when the… Ilya Sutskever · 25 Nov 2025 The only way to build something that matters is to develop conviction in a set of beliefs nobody else agrees with yet, long before they become consensus. — Alexandr Wang The only way to buildsomething that matters isto develop conviction in… Alexandr Wang · 29 Jul 2026 I am a classicist rather than a contrarian: I am in step with what thinkers about the mind have always held, and content to be out of step with my own field for decades. — Richard Sutton I am a classicist ratherthan a contrarian: I amin step with what… Richard Sutton · 26 Sept 2025 Engineers will always ask for more data, so someone has to decide without certainty and own the risk to human life. — Wayne Hale Engineers will always askfor more data, so someonehas to decide without… Wayne Hale · 5 Aug 2024 Under uncertainty, the best decision is the one that preserves the most future options. — Chip Huyen Under uncertainty, thebest decision is the onethat preserves the most… Chip Huyen · 17 Apr 2024 Insisting on knowing whether you have talent, or started too late, closes doors that staying uncertain would have left open. — George Saunders Insisting on knowingwhether you have talent,or started too late… George Saunders · 9 Jul 2026

6 people hold more than one of these, and one of them appears in more than one group. Tap a face to light up theirs.

Nothing in the archive records any two of these claims as agreeing or contradicting each other. What connects them is the people who hold several — the lines you get by picking one — and our reading of what each group has in common.