Ilya Sutskever
Co-founder and chief scientist of Safe Superintelligence Inc., and previously co-founder and chief scientist of OpenAI.
Ilya Sutskever did not write this page.
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Their wordsAnd one of the one thing you could do, and I think that's something that is done inadvertently, is that people take inspiration from the evals.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 1st of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsThe models are much more like the first student but even more because then we say okay so the model should be good at competitive programming so let's get every single competitive programming problem ever and then let's do some data augmentation so we have even more competitive programming problems
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 2nd of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsI don't think there is a human analog to pre-training.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 3rd of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsI think for example our intuitive feeling of hunger is not succeeding in guiding us correctly in this world with an abundance of food.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 4th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsAnd it's just this, this is an example of how language affects thought. Scaling is what just one word, but it's such a powerful word because it informs people what to do.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 5th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsLike it would be different for sure but like is the belief that if you just 100x the scale everything would be transformed. I don't think that's true. So it's back to the age of research again just with big computers.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 6th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsI want to like emphasize that I think the value function is something like it's going to make RL more efficient and I think that makes a difference but I think that anything you can do with a value function you can do without just more slowly.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 7th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsThe thing which I think is the most fundamental is that these models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 8th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsAt least for me, when I remember myself being 5 years old, my I was I was very excited about cars back then, and I'm pretty sure my car recognition was more than adequate for self-driving already.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 9th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsWhat I meant to say is that language math and coding and especially math and coding suggests that whatever it is that makes people good at learning is probably not so much a complicated prior but something more some fundamental thing.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 10th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsThey have a general sense which is also by the way extremely robust in people like whatever it is the human value function whatever the human value function is with a few exceptions around addiction it's actually very very robust
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 11th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsAnd so because scaling sucked out all the air in the room, everyone started to do the same thing. We got to the point where uh we are in a world where there are more companies than ideas by quite a bit.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 12th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsSo there definitely for for research you need like definitely some amount of compute but it's far from obvious that you need the absolutely largest amount of compute ever for research.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 13th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsLike basically I think I think that there is a big benefit from AI being in the public and that would be a reason for us to not be quite straight shot.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 14th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsA human being, a human being lacks a huge amount of knowledge. Instead, we rely on continual learning. We rely on continual learning.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 15th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsBut I think the idea of very rapid economic growth for some time, I think it's very possible from broad deployment.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 16th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsone of the one of the ways in which my thinking has been changing is that I now place more importance on AI being deployed incrementally and in advance.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 17th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsIndeed, the whole problem, what is the problem of AI and AGI? The whole problem is the power. The whole problem is the power. When the power is really big, what's going to happen?
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 18th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsI do think that at some point the AI will start to feel powerful actually and I think when that happens we will see a big change in the way all AI companies approach safety.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 19th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsI think in particular it will be there's a case to be made that it will be easier to build an AI that cares about sentient life than an AI that cares about human life alone because the AI itself will be sentient.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 20th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsNumber three, I think it would be really materially helpful if the power of the most powerful super intelligence was somehow capped because it would address a lot of these concerns.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 21st of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsAnd the solution is if people become part AI with some kind of neural link++ because what will happen as a result is that now the AI understands something and we understand it too like because now the understanding is transmitted wholesale.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 22nd of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsI maintain that in the end there will be a convergence of strategies. So I think there will be a convergence of strategies where at some point as AI becomes more powerful it's going to become more or less clearer to everyone what the strategy should be.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 23rd of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsI think what's going to happen is that the way competition like competition loves specialization and you see it in the market, you see it in evolution as well. So you're going to have lots of different niches and you're going to have lots of different companies who are occupying different niches
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 24th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsI think I think there'll definitely be there'll be diminishing returns because you want you want people who think differently rather than the same. I think that if they were literal copies of me, I'm not sure how much more incremental value you'd get.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 25th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsSo the reason there has been no diversity I believe is because of pre-training. All the pre-trained models are the same pretty much because the pre-train on the same data.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 26th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsNow the the thing is that selfplay at least the way it was done in the past when you have agents which are somehow compete with each other it's only good for developing a certain set of skills it is too narrow.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 27th of 28 in this recording
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Their wordsAnd then the top down belief is the thing that sustains you when the experiments contradict you. Because if you just trust the data all the time, well, sometimes you can be doing a correct thing, but there's a bug.
↗Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of researchyoutube.com 28th of 28 in this recording