Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake.

Added to korrents 7 Sept 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

Where this collides

• In tension with

  A writer should keep a public list of the things they got significantly wrong, so that readers can judge their credibility.

  Alexander’s Mistakes page says up front that it excludes failed predictions, because it is not wrong to give 60-40 odds on a false thing. He then lists the fluvoxamine call anyway, saying it seems worth acknowledging. The rule and the entry pull against each other, and where the line falls is the interesting question for anyone keeping such a list.

Shared subject first, then similar wording. They may agree or disagree.

• Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. JZJulie Zhuo21 Sept 2025
• A retraction can itself be wrong, and be worth retracting. SAScott Alexander22 Jun 2023
• Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. SPShane Parrish14 May 2018
• The wise bet heavily when the world offers them the odds, and not the rest of the time CMCharlie Mungerc. 1994
• An investor with a 20-, 30- or 50-year game should not take cues from people playing a different game, such as trading for the next quarter, and that is where much of investing's danger comes from. MHMorgan Housel28 May 2024

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