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← Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 14 Sept 2008 to 25 Sept 2026.
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venture capital In tension — Scott Alexander said both Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake. Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Feb 2023
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2023-02-01 — tap for who they are
In tension: A writer should keep a public list of the things they got significantly wrong, so that readers can judge their credibility. — tap to centre the map on it A writer should keep a public list of the things they got significantly wrong, so that readers can judge their credibility. Last stated 7 years ago
21 Aug 2019
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2019-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. — tap to centre the map on it Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. Last stated a year ago
21 Sept 2025
JZ
Julie Zhuo — holds since 2025-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A retraction can itself be wrong, and be worth retracting. — tap to centre the map on it A retraction can itself be wrong, and be worth retracting. Last stated 3 years ago
22 Jun 2023
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2023-06-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. — tap to centre the map on it Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. Last stated 8 years ago
14 May 2018
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The wise bet heavily when the world offers them the odds, and not the rest of the time — tap to centre the map on it The wise bet heavily when the world offers them the odds, and not the rest of the time
CM
Charlie Munger — holds since c. 1994 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An investor with a 20-, 30- or 50-year game should not take cues from people playing a different game, such as trading for the next quarter, and that is where much of investing's danger comes from. — tap to centre the map on it An investor with a 20-, 30- or 50-year game should not take cues from people playing a different game, such as trading for the next quarter, and that is where much of investing's danger comes from. Last stated 2 years ago
28 May 2024
MH
Morgan Housel — holds since 2024-05-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis. — tap to centre the map on it Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis. Last stated a year ago
5 Oct 2025
AC
Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Quoting a number for P(doom) is a ridiculous notion, because it implies a precision that nobody actually has. — tap to centre the map on it Quoting a number for P(doom) is a ridiculous notion, because it implies a precision that nobody actually has. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims — tap to centre the map on it In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims Last stated 18 years ago
14 Sept 2008
NT
Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since 2008-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A browser that answers with generated prose instead of links is not a web browser but an anti-web browser, and it hides that substitution from the person using it. — tap to centre the map on it A browser that answers with generated prose instead of links is not a web browser but an anti-web browser, and it hides that substitution from the person using it. Last stated a year ago
22 Oct 2025
AD
Anil Dash — holds since 2025-10-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first draft is necessarily bad, and that is exactly why one has to be written. — tap to centre the map on it A first draft is necessarily bad, and that is exactly why one has to be written. Last stated 4 years ago
12 Oct 2022
AK
Austin Kleon — holds since 2022-10-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first draft should not be graded good or bad; it is only the material that taste then gets to act on. — tap to centre the map on it A first draft should not be graded good or bad; it is only the material that taste then gets to act on. Last stated 3 months ago
6 Aug 2026
GS
George Saunders — holds since 2026-08-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 8 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated 4 weeks ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 4 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. — tap to centre the map on it A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
SA
A view that moved — Scott Alexander: this claim 21 Aug 2019, then the centre claim 1 Feb 2023
At the centre
Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake.
Holds Read this korrent →
A writer should keep a public list of the things they got significantly wrong, so that readers can judge their credibility.
A view that moved. Scott Alexander said both: this one 21 Aug 2019, then the centre claim 1 Feb 2023.Holds
Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science.
Holds
A retraction can itself be wrong, and be worth retracting.
Holds
Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side.
Holds
The wise bet heavily when the world offers them the odds, and not the rest of the time
Last stated c. 1994
Holds
An investor with a 20-, 30- or 50-year game should not take cues from people playing a different game, such as trading for the next quarter, and that is where much of investing's danger comes from.
Holds
Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis.
Holds
Quoting a number for P(doom) is a ridiculous notion, because it implies a precision that nobody actually has.
Holds
In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims
Holds
A browser that answers with generated prose instead of links is not a web browser but an anti-web browser, and it hides that substitution from the person using it.
Holds
A first draft is necessarily bad, and that is exactly why one has to be written.
Holds
A first draft should not be graded good or bad; it is only the material that taste then gets to act on.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack.
Holds
A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market.
Holds
A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit.
Holds
A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for.
Holds