Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake.
17 connected korrents · 18 moments on record from 24 Oct 2017 to 4 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under peer review
peer review
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI In tension — Scott Alexander is on record for both Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake. Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Feb 2023
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2023-02-01 — tap for who they are
In tension: A writer should keep a public list of the things they got significantly wrong, so that readers can judge their credibility. — tap to centre the map on it A writer should keep a public list of the things they got significantly wrong, so that readers can judge their credibility. Last stated 7 years ago
21 Aug 2019
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2019-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. — tap to centre the map on it Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. Last stated 12 months ago
21 Sept 2025
JZ
Julie Zhuo — holds since 2025-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A retraction can itself be wrong, and be worth retracting. — tap to centre the map on it A retraction can itself be wrong, and be worth retracting. Last stated 3 years ago
22 Jun 2023
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2023-06-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis. — tap to centre the map on it Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis. Last stated 11 months ago
5 Oct 2025
AC
Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Quoting a number for P(doom) is a ridiculous notion, because it implies a precision that nobody actually has. — tap to centre the map on it Quoting a number for P(doom) is a ridiculous notion, because it implies a precision that nobody actually has. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve. — tap to centre the map on it Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve. Last stated 2 years ago
22 Apr 2024
SC
Sean Carroll — holds since 2024-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The replication crisis is not an aberration; many of the things we believe are wrong — tap to centre the map on it The replication crisis is not an aberration; many of the things we believe are wrong Last stated 4 days ago
4 Sept 2026
SR
Stuart Ritchie — holds since 2022-12-27 — tap for who they are
NF
Nat Friedman — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: At a market price-earnings ratio of twenty-three there is little upside and a long way to fall, where at fifteen there would be much less risk. — tap to centre the map on it At a market price-earnings ratio of twenty-three there is little upside and a long way to fall, where at fifteen there would be much less risk. Last stated a year ago
16 Jul 2025
JD
Jamie Dimon — holds since 2025-07-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A saboteur among our AI investigators would be hard to spot, because these models are sloppy and spiky enough that a suspicious error just looks like ordinary incompetence. — tap to centre the map on it A saboteur among our AI investigators would be hard to spot, because these models are sloppy and spiky enough that a suspicious error just looks like ordinary incompetence. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough. — tap to centre the map on it A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Oct 2017
ÉT
Émile P. Torres — holds since 2017-10-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Fraudulent papers pass peer review routinely, which is direct evidence that peer review does not do the job it is supposed to do. — tap to centre the map on it Fraudulent papers pass peer review routinely, which is direct evidence that peer review does not do the job it is supposed to do. Last stated 4 years ago
13 Dec 2022
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2022-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: History has a reproducibility problem worse than science’s replication crisis, because hardly anyone ever goes back to the sources to check what a historian claimed they say. — tap to centre the map on it History has a reproducibility problem worse than science’s replication crisis, because hardly anyone ever goes back to the sources to check what a historian claimed they say. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AH
Anton Howes — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Needing a reviewer's approval before an idea counts for anything makes scientists worse at thinking, and costs the field its most unusual ideas. — tap to centre the map on it Needing a reviewer's approval before an idea counts for anything makes scientists worse at thinking, and costs the field its most unusual ideas. Last stated 4 years ago
13 Dec 2022
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2022-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. Last stated 5 days ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
SA
A view that moved — Scott Alexander: this claim 21 Aug 2019, then the centre claim 1 Feb 2023
At the centre
Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake.
Holds SA Scott AlexanderRead this korrent →
A writer should keep a public list of the things they got significantly wrong, so that readers can judge their credibility.
SA A view that moved. Scott Alexander is on record for both: this one 21 Aug 2019, then the centre claim 1 Feb 2023.Holds SA Scott Alexander
Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science.
Holds JZ Julie Zhuo
A retraction can itself be wrong, and be worth retracting.
Holds SA Scott Alexander
Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis.
Holds AC Albert Cheng
Quoting a number for P(doom) is a ridiculous notion, because it implies a precision that nobody actually has.
Holds DH Demis Hassabis
Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve.
Holds SC Sean Carroll
The replication crisis is not an aberration; many of the things we believe are wrong
Holds SR Stuart RitchieNF Nat Friedman
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds BS Buck Shlegeris
At a market price-earnings ratio of twenty-three there is little upside and a long way to fall, where at fifteen there would be much less risk.
Holds JD Jamie Dimon
A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean.
Holds IS Ilya Sutskever
A saboteur among our AI investigators would be hard to spot, because these models are sloppy and spiky enough that a suspicious error just looks like ordinary incompetence.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough.
Holds ÉT Émile P. Torres
Fraudulent papers pass peer review routinely, which is direct evidence that peer review does not do the job it is supposed to do.
Holds AM Adam Mastroianni
History has a reproducibility problem worse than science’s replication crisis, because hardly anyone ever goes back to the sources to check what a historian claimed they say.
Holds AH Anton Howes
Needing a reviewer's approval before an idea counts for anything makes scientists worse at thinking, and costs the field its most unusual ideas.
Holds AM Adam Mastroianni
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz