Aswath Damodaran
Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business, known for his work on valuation. Publishes his valuations, spreadsheets and data openly at Musings on Markets, and revises them in public when the numbers move against him.
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Their wordsAny investor or founder who blindly follows the pathway of scaling first and profiting later for every business is using a cookbook approach to business building, and runs the risk of making small failures into big ones.
↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 1st of 5 in this piece
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Their wordsVC success is measured based on price at entry and price at exit on an investment, rather than the quality of the business built
↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 2nd of 5 in this piece
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Their wordsthe median venture capitalist has not been much better at harvesting alpha than the median mutual fund manager or PE investor
↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 3rd of 5 in this piece
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Their wordsthere is evidence that the reversal effect has weakened over time, leaving investors who bet on mean reversion and a return to fundamentals in the lurch
↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 4th of 5 in this piece
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Their wordsWhile it was routine for companies going public in the 1980s to be profitable (>80% were), less that a quarter of the companies that have gone public in the last decade have been profitable.
↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 5th of 5 in this piece
- 13 days earlier
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Their wordsI would argue that AI's total addressable market, in the US, cannot be greater than $12.96 trillion, the total employee compensation in 2025
↗AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
The trillion-plus prices rumoured for OpenAI and Anthropic ahead of their listings look rich.
Their wordsI will confess that the rumored pricing for both companies ($1.5 to $ 2 trillion) looks rich, but I am open to being surprised
↗AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsanyone who claims to have conviction that they know what's coming is being either ignorant or arrogant
↗AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 2 months earlier
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Their wordsthere is almost no counter to the argument that active investing collectively creates a drag on portfolio performance
↗SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsMuch of active investing is built around publicly available information and a belief in the power of mean reversion, not original research and seeking information.
↗SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsDoomsday stories about how passive investing is making markets less efficient and less inclined to reflect fundamentals strike me as overwrought
↗SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 6 months earlier
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Their wordsthe delusion comes from the reality that if you aggregated these breakeven revenues across companies, the market is not big enough to sustain all of them
↗Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 1st of 4 in this piece
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Their wordsinvestors at many tech companies, including most on the large cap list, have given up their corporate governance rights, often voluntarily (through the acceptance of shares with different voting rights), to founders and top management in these companies
↗Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 2nd of 4 in this piece
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Their wordsIf you are an investor who considers any highly priced company to be overvalued, I hope that this post leads you to reconsider.
↗Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 3rd of 4 in this piece
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Their wordsI think that the pathway that you would need (in terms of revenue growth and profitability) to justify Nvidia's and OpenAI's current pricing is improbable, but that is just my view
↗Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 4th of 4 in this piece