korrents

Investing

What people on korrents have said about investing, in their own words — 51 claims from 6 people.

Ben Carlson, Ray Dalio, Aswath Damodaran, Morgan Housel, Nick Maggiulli, Howard Marks

Five viewsour reading; the words are theirs

Nobody can tell whether the AI boom is a bubble while it is still inflating I would argue that AI's total addressable market, in the US, cannot be greater than $12.96 trillion, the total employee compensation in 2025 — Aswath Damodaran, 2026 Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks 12 claims

Claims that a bubble is only visible after it bursts, that today's prices already assume revenues nobody has shown a path to, and that the excess spending is not itself proof of foolishness.

AI’s total addressable market in the United States cannot exceed what American employers pay their employees, about $13 trillion a year.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business I would argue that AI's total addressable market, in the US, cannot be greater than $12.96 trillion, the total employee compensation in 2025 AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 20 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsI would argue that AI's total addressable market, in the US, cannot be greater than $12.96 trillion, the total employee compensation in 2025

    ↗AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    20 Aug 2026

Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.

Mental modelProbabilistic thinking

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business anyone who claims to have conviction that they know what's coming is being either ignorant or arrogant AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 20 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsanyone who claims to have conviction that they know what's coming is being either ignorant or arrogant

    ↗AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    20 Aug 2026

  2. Howard Marks Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management Given the vast potential of AI but also the large number of enormous unknowns, I think virtually no one can say for sure. Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsGiven the vast potential of AI but also the large number of enormous unknowns, I think virtually no one can say for sure.

    ↗Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com

    9 Dec 2025

The trillion-plus prices rumoured for OpenAI and Anthropic ahead of their listings look rich.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business I will confess that the rumored pricing for both companies ($1.5 to $ 2 trillion) looks rich, but I am open to being surprised AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 20 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsI will confess that the rumored pricing for both companies ($1.5 to $ 2 trillion) looks rich, but I am open to being surprised

    ↗AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    20 Aug 2026

If AI enthusiasm does not produce a bubble on the historical pattern, it will be the first transformative technology that did not.

  1. Howard Marks Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management If that enthusiasm doesn’t produce a bubble conforming to the historical pattern, that will be a first. Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsIf that enthusiasm doesn’t produce a bubble conforming to the historical pattern, that will be a first.

    ↗Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com

    9 Dec 2025

Transformative technologies reliably attract more investment and infrastructure than they need, and that excess is what speeds their adoption.

  1. Howard Marks Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management There’s a consistent history of transformational technologies generating excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in more infrastructure than is needed and asset prices that prove to have been too high. The excesses accelerate the adoption of the technology in a way that wouldn’t occur in their absence. Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThere’s a consistent history of transformational technologies generating excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in more infrastructure than is needed and asset prices that prove to have been too high. The excesses accelerate the adoption of the technology in a way that wouldn’t occur in their absence.

    ↗Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com

    9 Dec 2025

There is no way to capture a new technology’s upside without being exposed to the losses if the enthusiasm proves excessive.

Mental modelTrade-offs

  1. Howard Marks Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management There can be no way to participate fully in the potential benefits from the new technology without being exposed to the losses that will arise if the enthusiasm and thus investors’ behavior prove to have been excessive. Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThere can be no way to participate fully in the potential benefits from the new technology without being exposed to the losses that will arise if the enthusiasm and thus investors’ behavior prove to have been excessive.

    ↗Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com

    9 Dec 2025

Leverage in the AI build-out is neither to be applauded nor feared; what matters is how much debt there is and what backs it.

Mental modelLeverage

  1. Howard Marks Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management Debt is neither a good thing nor a bad thing per se. Likewise, the use of leverage in the AI industry shouldn’t be applauded or feared. Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsDebt is neither a good thing nor a bad thing per se. Likewise, the use of leverage in the AI industry shouldn’t be applauded or feared.

    ↗Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com

    9 Dec 2025

A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business If you are an investor who considers any highly priced company to be overvalued, I hope that this post leads you to reconsider. Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 3 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsIf you are an investor who considers any highly priced company to be overvalued, I hope that this post leads you to reconsider.

    ↗Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    3 Dec 2025

AI pricing is a big market delusion: each company’s implied revenues look plausible alone, but added together they exceed any market that could exist.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business the delusion comes from the reality that if you aggregated these breakeven revenues across companies, the market is not big enough to sustain all of them Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 3 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsthe delusion comes from the reality that if you aggregated these breakeven revenues across companies, the market is not big enough to sustain all of them

    ↗Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    3 Dec 2025

The revenue growth and margins needed to justify Nvidia’s and OpenAI’s late-2025 pricing are improbable.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business I think that the pathway that you would need (in terms of revenue growth and profitability) to justify Nvidia's and OpenAI's current pricing is improbable, but that is just my view Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 3 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsI think that the pathway that you would need (in terms of revenue growth and profitability) to justify Nvidia's and OpenAI's current pricing is improbable, but that is just my view

    ↗Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    3 Dec 2025

A portfolio is something to be held through a cycle, not predicted Stock market concentration is a bull market phenomenon. — Ben Carlson, 2026 Ben Carlson, Nick Maggiulli, Ray Dalio 13 claims · 1 change of mind

Claims that losing money periodically is ordinary, that a call based on the last few years gets the base rate wrong, and that portfolios actually change for reasons in a life rather than reasons in a chart.

The weight of the largest US companies in the index matches their share of the earnings, so the concentration is justified.

  1. Ben Carlson Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz… The market cap weights make sense relative to the fundamentals. It’s a Concentrated Worldawealthofcommonsense.com · 6 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThe market cap weights make sense relative to the fundamentals.

    ↗It’s a Concentrated Worldawealthofcommonsense.com

    6 Sept 2026

Whatever AI does to the size of the pie, it will most likely increase concentration in the market and the economy.

  1. Ben Carlson Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz… Even if AI makes the pie grow bigger, it feels like a better bet that it will only increase the level of concentration in the stock market and economy if the past is a good predictor of the future. It’s a Concentrated Worldawealthofcommonsense.com · 6 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsEven if AI makes the pie grow bigger, it feels like a better bet that it will only increase the level of concentration in the stock market and economy if the past is a good predictor of the future.

    ↗It’s a Concentrated Worldawealthofcommonsense.com

    6 Sept 2026

Portfolios get changed because of life events far more often than because of market events.

  1. Ben Carlson Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz… One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned working in wealth management all these years is that portfolio changes in client accounts happen more frequently from life events rather than market events. How to Invest When Your Portfolio Gets Biggerawealthofcommonsense.com · 3 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsOne of the biggest lessons I’ve learned working in wealth management all these years is that portfolio changes in client accounts happen more frequently from life events rather than market events.

    ↗How to Invest When Your Portfolio Gets Biggerawealthofcommonsense.com

    3 Sept 2026

Saving dominates returns early in a career and returns dominate saving later, because compounding is back-loaded.

Mental modelsCompounding, Exponential growth

  1. Ben Carlson Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz… How much you save has a far greater impact than your investments early on in your career. But as your portfolio grows, investment returns swamp your savings because of the wonders of compounding. How to Invest When Your Portfolio Gets Biggerawealthofcommonsense.com · 3 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsHow much you save has a far greater impact than your investments early on in your career. But as your portfolio grows, investment returns swamp your savings because of the wonders of compounding.

    ↗How to Invest When Your Portfolio Gets Biggerawealthofcommonsense.com

    3 Sept 2026

Losing money periodically is a normal part of owning stocks, not a sign that something has gone wrong.

  1. Ben Carlson Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz… Occasional downturns in the stock market are perfectly normal. You have to get used to losing money if you want to survive the stock market. 10 Things You Need to Know About Investing in Stocksawealthofcommonsense.com · 27 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsOccasional downturns in the stock market are perfectly normal. You have to get used to losing money if you want to survive the stock market.

    ↗10 Things You Need to Know About Investing in Stocksawealthofcommonsense.com

    27 Aug 2026

There is no average year in the stock market; the long-run average only shows up over a very long horizon.

Mental modelsThe map is not the territory, Play long games

  1. Ben Carlson Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz… There is no such thing as an average experience in the stock market until you’ve been investing for a very long time. 10 Things You Need to Know About Investing in Stocksawealthofcommonsense.com · 27 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThere is no such thing as an average experience in the stock market until you’ve been investing for a very long time.

    ↗10 Things You Need to Know About Investing in Stocksawealthofcommonsense.com

    27 Aug 2026

Stock market history is too short to settle much: it holds only three non-overlapping thirty-year periods.

  1. Ben Carlson Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz… But if you think about this another way, there have only been three non-overlapping 30 year periods in modern stock market history. 10 Things You Need to Know About Investing in Stocksawealthofcommonsense.com · 27 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsBut if you think about this another way, there have only been three non-overlapping 30 year periods in modern stock market history.

    ↗10 Things You Need to Know About Investing in Stocksawealthofcommonsense.com

    27 Aug 2026

The S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio no longer signals what it once did, because today’s companies earn higher margins.

  1. Nick Maggiulli Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data… Therefore, the only correct interpretation of the P/S ratio over the last decade is that it doesn’t signal what it used to. Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com · 25 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsTherefore, the only correct interpretation of the P/S ratio over the last decade is that it doesn’t signal what it used to.

    ↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com

    25 Aug 2026

The base rate for US stocks over any one year is that they rise, and forgetting it is how market calls go wrong.

  1. Nick Maggiulli Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data… the base rate for U.S. stock performance (in aggregate) over one year is that they go up Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com · 25 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsthe base rate for U.S. stock performance (in aggregate) over one year is that they go up

    ↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com

    25 Aug 2026

A portfolio you cannot hold through an ordinary market cycle is not a portfolio but a bet.

  1. Nick Maggiulli Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data… Because if you can’t handle standard market cycles, then you don’t have a portfolio, you have a bet. Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com · 25 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsBecause if you can’t handle standard market cycles, then you don’t have a portfolio, you have a bet.

    ↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com

    25 Aug 2026

An investor's starting point should be the portfolio that is best to hold independent of any tactical market view

  1. Nick Maggiulli Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data… it’s better to have a portfolio that can handle stocks whether they are overvalued or not Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com · 25 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsit’s better to have a portfolio that can handle stocks whether they are overvalued or not

    ↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com

    25 Aug 2026

  2. Ray Dalio Founder of Bridgewater Associates I think everyone’s starting point for investing should be to know and be in the portfolio that is best to have, independent of any tactical views of the markets. Gold is the Safest Moneyraydalio.substack.com · 19 Feb 2026
    Their wordsI think everyone’s starting point for investing should be to know and be in the portfolio that is best to have, independent of any tactical views of the markets.

    ↗Gold is the Safest Moneyraydalio.substack.com

    19 Feb 2026

The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off.

  1. Nick Maggiulli · held 12 months Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data… Since then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided. Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com · 25 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece

    No longer holdsSince then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided.

    Their words nowMy issue wasn’t that the parallels didn’t exist—they did. My issue was that much of the speculative stuff of 2021 ended up failing (NFTs, DeFi, etc.) while much of the speculative stuff of 2025 (AI) seems to be succeeding.

    ↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com

    25 Aug 2026

Money is a tool for a life, and most people quietly treat it as a scoreboard instead The habituation to novel experiences makes spending money earlier in life more valuable than later in life. — Nick Maggiulli, 2026 Nick Maggiulli, Morgan Housel 13 claims

Claims about what debt, saving and copying a successful person actually buy, and about why market history explains why something happened but never what happens next.

Money spent in your twenties buys more experience than the same money spent in your sixties, because novelty wears off.

  1. Nick Maggiulli Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data… The habituation to novel experiences makes spending money earlier in life more valuable than later in life. Why $100 in Your 20s is Worth $500 in Your 60sofdollarsanddata.com · 4 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThe habituation to novel experiences makes spending money earlier in life more valuable than later in life.

    ↗Why $100 in Your 20s is Worth $500 in Your 60sofdollarsanddata.com

    4 Aug 2026

Hoarding money you will never spend is a worse mistake than overspending when young.

  1. Nick Maggiulli Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data… Blowing all your money while young isn’t a smart move, but hoarding money now that you won’t spend later is worse. Why $100 in Your 20s is Worth $500 in Your 60sofdollarsanddata.com · 4 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsBlowing all your money while young isn’t a smart move, but hoarding money now that you won’t spend later is worse.

    ↗Why $100 in Your 20s is Worth $500 in Your 60sofdollarsanddata.com

    4 Aug 2026

Every year spent keeping your options open is a year not spent on whatever you eventually commit to.

Mental modelTrade-offs

  1. Nick Maggiulli Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data… Every year you spend with options is another year you don’t spend on the thing you eventually commit to. The Problem with Optionalityofdollarsanddata.com · 28 Jul 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsEvery year you spend with options is another year you don’t spend on the thing you eventually commit to.

    ↗The Problem with Optionalityofdollarsanddata.com

    28 Jul 2026

Refusing to commit is the right strategy inside a portfolio and the wrong one everywhere else in life.

  1. Nick Maggiulli Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data… In investing, non-commitment leads to better than average outcomes for the typical investor. The Problem with Optionalityofdollarsanddata.com · 28 Jul 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsIn investing, non-commitment leads to better than average outcomes for the typical investor.

    ↗The Problem with Optionalityofdollarsanddata.com

    28 Jul 2026

Cycles are hard to predict because forecasters extrapolate in straight lines and cannot see the forces undoing the present.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money Cycles are so hard to predict, because it’s easier to forecast in straight lines. A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure Aboutcollabfund.com · 6 Jan 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsCycles are so hard to predict, because it’s easier to forecast in straight lines.

    ↗A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure Aboutcollabfund.com

    6 Jan 2026

When most people expect a top-five-per-cent outcome, mass disappointment is guaranteed.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money But when a majority of people expect a top 5% outcome the result is guaranteed mass disappointment. A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure Aboutcollabfund.com · 6 Jan 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsBut when a majority of people expect a top 5% outcome the result is guaranteed mass disappointment.

    ↗A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure Aboutcollabfund.com

    6 Jan 2026

Debt is best understood as narrowing the range of outcomes you can survive, not as a cost of capital.

Mental modelMargin of safety

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life. How I Think About Debtcollabfund.com · 30 Apr 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsI think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life.

    ↗How I Think About Debtcollabfund.com

    30 Apr 2024

The real price of debt is paid in options and flexibility, which is the asset that matters most.

Mental modelsMargin of safety, Trade-offs

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money you start to see it as a constraint on the asset that matters most: having options and flexibility How I Think About Debtcollabfund.com · 30 Apr 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsyou start to see it as a constraint on the asset that matters most: having options and flexibility

    ↗How I Think About Debtcollabfund.com

    30 Apr 2024

When learning from someone successful, copy only what is repeatable; the rest of their success cannot be reproduced.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money It’s so important to know the difference between the two when attempting to learn from someone. You want to try to emulate skills that are repeatable. Lucky vs. Repeatablecollabfund.com · 7 Apr 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsIt’s so important to know the difference between the two when attempting to learn from someone. You want to try to emulate skills that are repeatable.

    ↗Lucky vs. Repeatablecollabfund.com

    7 Apr 2024

Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money you want to learn the big lessons about why things behave the way they do without assuming the past is a direct guide to the future, because it’s not – most of the details are not repeatable Lucky vs. Repeatablecollabfund.com · 7 Apr 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsyou want to learn the big lessons about why things behave the way they do without assuming the past is a direct guide to the future, because it’s not – most of the details are not repeatable

    ↗Lucky vs. Repeatablecollabfund.com

    7 Apr 2024

Money is used either as a tool for a better life or as a yardstick of status, and most people aim at the first while chasing the second.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money There are two ways to use money. One is as a tool to live a better life. The other is as a yardstick of status to measure yourself against others. A Few Thoughts on Spending Moneycollabfund.com · 31 Jan 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThere are two ways to use money. One is as a tool to live a better life. The other is as a yardstick of status to measure yourself against others.

    ↗A Few Thoughts on Spending Moneycollabfund.com

    31 Jan 2024

Unspent money buys freedom and control over your own time, which is what makes saving worth more than whatever it could have bought.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money Unspent money buys something intangible but valuable: freedom, independence, autonomy, and control over your time. A Few Thoughts on Spending Moneycollabfund.com · 31 Jan 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsUnspent money buys something intangible but valuable: freedom, independence, autonomy, and control over your time.

    ↗A Few Thoughts on Spending Moneycollabfund.com

    31 Jan 2024

There is no objective level of wealth: how rich you are is always a judgement made against someone else.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money There is no such thing as an objective level of wealth. Everything is relative to someone else. A Few Thoughts on Spending Moneycollabfund.com · 31 Jan 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThere is no such thing as an objective level of wealth. Everything is relative to someone else.

    ↗A Few Thoughts on Spending Moneycollabfund.com

    31 Jan 2024

Whether markets have grown more efficient or less is itself disputed there is evidence that the reversal effect has weakened over time, leaving investors who bet on mean reversion and a return to fundamentals in the lurch — Aswath Damodaran, 2026 Aswath Damodaran 4 claims

One claim that active management collectively subtracts value from investors as a group, another that markets have grown less efficient at long horizons over the same decades -- which, if both hold, means the inefficiency is real and nobody in particular is capturing it.

The pull of fundamentals that used to reverse market momentum has weakened, so betting on mean reversion is more dangerous than it was.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business there is evidence that the reversal effect has weakened over time, leaving investors who bet on mean reversion and a return to fundamentals in the lurch The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 2 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsthere is evidence that the reversal effect has weakened over time, leaving investors who bet on mean reversion and a return to fundamentals in the lurch

    ↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    2 Sept 2026

The claim that passive investing has made markets less efficient is overwrought.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business Doomsday stories about how passive investing is making markets less efficient and less inclined to reflect fundamentals strike me as overwrought SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 18 Jun 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsDoomsday stories about how passive investing is making markets less efficient and less inclined to reflect fundamentals strike me as overwrought

    ↗SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    18 Jun 2026

Active investing collectively drags down portfolio returns, and the evidence leaves almost no counter-argument.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business there is almost no counter to the argument that active investing collectively creates a drag on portfolio performance SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 18 Jun 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsthere is almost no counter to the argument that active investing collectively creates a drag on portfolio performance

    ↗SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    18 Jun 2026

Most active investors are not hunting for information; they are betting on mean reversion in data everyone already has.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business Much of active investing is built around publicly available information and a belief in the power of mean reversion, not original research and seeking information. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 18 Jun 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsMuch of active investing is built around publicly available information and a belief in the power of mean reversion, not original research and seeking information.

    ↗SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    18 Jun 2026

Venture investing's economics do not work the way its reputation suggests Any investor or founder who blindly follows the pathway of scaling first and profiting later for every business is using a cookbook approach to business building, and runs the risk of making small failures into big ones. — Aswath Damodaran, 2026 Aswath Damodaran 5 claims

Claims that a venture capitalist is judged on entry and exit price rather than the business, that the median fund has not beaten a mutual fund, and that governance has been quietly signed away.

Applying scale-first, profit-later to every business is a cookbook that turns small failures into big ones.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business Any investor or founder who blindly follows the pathway of scaling first and profiting later for every business is using a cookbook approach to business building, and runs the risk of making small failures into big ones. The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 2 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsAny investor or founder who blindly follows the pathway of scaling first and profiting later for every business is using a cookbook approach to business building, and runs the risk of making small failures into big ones.

    ↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    2 Sept 2026

Venture capitalists are judged on the price they entered and exited at, not on the quality of the business they built.

Mental modelIncentives

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business VC success is measured based on price at entry and price at exit on an investment, rather than the quality of the business built The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 2 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsVC success is measured based on price at entry and price at exit on an investment, rather than the quality of the business built

    ↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    2 Sept 2026

The median venture capitalist has produced no more excess return than the median mutual-fund or private-equity manager.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business the median venture capitalist has not been much better at harvesting alpha than the median mutual fund manager or PE investor The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 2 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsthe median venture capitalist has not been much better at harvesting alpha than the median mutual fund manager or PE investor

    ↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    2 Sept 2026

Companies now go public later, bigger and unprofitable: fewer than a quarter of the last decade’s IPOs were making money.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business While it was routine for companies going public in the 1980s to be profitable (>80% were), less that a quarter of the companies that have gone public in the last decade have been profitable. The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 2 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsWhile it was routine for companies going public in the 1980s to be profitable (>80% were), less that a quarter of the companies that have gone public in the last decade have been profitable.

    ↗The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    2 Sept 2026

Investors in the largest tech companies have voluntarily surrendered their governance rights, leaving founders with unchecked power.

  1. Aswath Damodaran Professor of finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business investors at many tech companies, including most on the large cap list, have given up their corporate governance rights, often voluntarily (through the acceptance of shares with different voting rights), to founders and top management in these companies Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 3 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsinvestors at many tech companies, including most on the large cap list, have given up their corporate governance rights, often voluntarily (through the acceptance of shares with different voting rights), to founders and top management in these companies

    ↗Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

    3 Dec 2025

Read togetherour reading of the record — ours, not theirs

Money people on the AI build-out and on whether a portfolio is something you build or survive.

What is a view?

Our reading of what a group of claims have in common. Nobody holds a belief about investing as such; people hold beliefs about the handful of live questions the name stands for, and each view is one of them. The claims are printed under it, so the sentence can be checked against them.

Claims are filed here — never people. Somebody is named on a card because a dated claim of theirs sits under it, and somebody whose claims sit under two views is named on both. There are no counts of who believes what: the people under a view are the names printed there.

Read, and under none of the views

On this subject, but saying something the views above do not cover.

Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little.

  1. Ray Dalio Founder of Bridgewater Associates I know through my experiences that even the most advanced artificial intelligences don’t have adequate enough insights to allow one to blindly follow them and that unique human understanding and insights are still invaluable, and that that is especially true in investing where value-added is a zero-sum game (so that, when it comes to adding value, what is widely known is of little value.) Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com · 10 Jun 2026
    Their wordsI know through my experiences that even the most advanced artificial intelligences don’t have adequate enough insights to allow one to blindly follow them and that unique human understanding and insights are still invaluable, and that that is especially true in investing where value-added is a zero-sum game (so that, when it comes to adding value, what is widely known is of little value.)

    ↗Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com

    10 Jun 2026

Decision criteria have to come from logical cause-and-effect understanding, not from data-mining what worked before, and not from asking an AI what to do.

Mental modelFirst principles

  1. Ray Dalio Founder of Bridgewater Associates To be clear, these criteria are not best derived by looking at what would have worked in the past and assuming that it will work in the future—i.e., data mining—or simply asking an AI what to do. They are based on logical understandings converted into decision-making systems. Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com · 10 Jun 2026
    Their wordsTo be clear, these criteria are not best derived by looking at what would have worked in the past and assuming that it will work in the future—i.e., data mining—or simply asking an AI what to do. They are based on logical understandings converted into decision-making systems.

    ↗Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com

    10 Jun 2026

Systematising principled decision-making with AI is now the line between staying competitive and not; there is no position in between.

  1. Ray Dalio Founder of Bridgewater Associates What this process can now do in creating understanding of the timeless and universal cause:effect relationship and enhancing and systemizing whatever one is thinking is mind-blowing. I believe that you will either stay at the cutting edge of doing this or you will be uncompetitive. Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com · 10 Jun 2026
    Their wordsWhat this process can now do in creating understanding of the timeless and universal cause:effect relationship and enhancing and systemizing whatever one is thinking is mind-blowing. I believe that you will either stay at the cutting edge of doing this or you will be uncompetitive.

    ↗Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com

    10 Jun 2026

Success now requires combining the best human intelligence with the best artificial intelligence

  1. Ray Dalio Founder of Bridgewater Associates I believe that the path to success is best achieved by putting the best human intelligence together with the best artificial intelligence and that the way of thinking I am describing here is essential to understand and use in the new human/artificial intelligence era. Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com · 10 Jun 2026
    Their wordsI believe that the path to success is best achieved by putting the best human intelligence together with the best artificial intelligence and that the way of thinking I am describing here is essential to understand and use in the new human/artificial intelligence era.

    ↗Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com

    10 Jun 2026

On this subject, not yet placed

Matched by wording, not yet read into a view. The archive grows on its own — the watcher adds claims every two hours — so this is where new ones wait for somebody to read them.

The stream

The same 167 positions as the timeline, threaded — each on the rail of the view it is filed under, and 147 on no rail yet. Tap a view to follow it.

October 2026

David Heinemeier Hansson ·

Investing in whatever Elon Musk does next is a great and inspiring bet.

Paul Graham ·

When investors reject founders for seemingly stupid reasons, it may be because the investors are actually stupid, or because they dislike the founder and are making up the reason.

Pieter Levels ·

The remaining business moats are proprietary data, network effects, distribution, hardware, capital, and regulation.

September 2026

Ben Carlson ·

This period has been one of the best times for individual investors to outperform the market.

Ben Carlson ·

Venture capital investing is a power-law strategy where a small number of big winners are expected to make up for many losses.

Ben Carlson ·

Companies are staying private longer partly because private-market investors have overvalued them.

Ben Carlson ·

Venture investments are essentially lottery tickets for individual investors.

Pieter Levels ·

Investment returns can surpass business revenue.

Barry Ritholtz ·

Investors are underestimating Nvidia's ability to keep innovating and defend its dominant position as AI shifts toward inference.

Nick Maggiulli ·

Nobody should take on a concentrated, illiquid asset that is correlated with their main source of income, because that same risk is why outsized rewards exist in the first place.

Brad DeLong ·

Curation is an inevitable bet on judgment over completeness: accepting that almost everything will be missed, and investing attention in a few trusted curators.

Jack Clark ·

The United States' current AI strategy is focused on accelerating capability rather than investing in safety measures.

Tanner Greer ·

The AI industry has significantly underestimated the risk that political forces outside its control could slow or halt progress in artificial intelligence.

Brad DeLong ·

A maritime chokepoint crisis permanently redirects long-term pipeline and terminal investment, not just short-term oil prices.

Nick Maggiulli ·

The optimal portfolio is the one an investor can actually stick with no matter what happens in the world, not the mathematically best-performing one.

Roger Martin ·

Intangible assets are arguably harder to replicate than tangible ones.

Matthew Yglesias ·

If AI investment pulled back, the capital and resources involved would shift to other productive uses rather than sit idle.

Geoff Charles ·

Product organizations are probably not investing nearly enough in technical product managers who build the internal factory.

Nick Maggiulli ·

Gains earned too quickly can trap an investor in a position they feel unable to escape.

Anish Acharya ·

For investors today, the idea not worth engaging with is the one that is too small, where it used to be the one that was too ambitious.

Paul Graham ·

Being formidable means getting what you want in any situation, and that is exactly why investors want it: a formidable founder's interests and theirs are the same.

Aswath Damodaran ·

Applying scale-first, profit-later to every business is a cookbook that turns small failures into big ones.

Aswath Damodaran ·

The median venture capitalist has produced no more excess return than the median mutual-fund or private-equity manager.

Aswath Damodaran ·

The pull of fundamentals that used to reverse market momentum has weakened, so betting on mean reversion is more dangerous than it was.

Mitchell Hashimoto ·

Investing in strong fundamentals and invisible supports makes good outcomes follow naturally

Paul Graham ·

Unlike later-stage investors, YC has to be prepared to give advice to founders about practically everything.

Casey Newton ·

The current pace of AI development is worse for society than a coordinated slowdown would be for investors' portfolios.

Paul Graham ·

No credential gives more credibility with investors than growth does.

Paul Graham ·

If whatever is being done is done well enough, investors won't be needed at all.

August 2026

Matt Webb ·

Taking action through iterated adjustments based on a trend is cognitively easier than interpreting an absolute value at each moment.

Ben Carlson ·

There is no average year in the stock market; the long-run average only shows up over a very long horizon.

Henry Farrell ·

AI's development today is being directed by a small self-selecting group of business leaders and investors, not left unsteered.

Meb Faber ·

Stock market investors spend most of their time below their previous all-time-high wealth, not at new peaks.

Nick Maggiulli · no longer holds

The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off.

Nick Maggiulli ·

An investor's starting point should be the portfolio that is best to hold independent of any tactical market view

Kevin Kelly ·

Investing in relationships yields better returns than investing in speculative assets like crypto.

Ray Dalio ·

A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement.

Meb Faber ·

Investors often ignore the impact of taxes on their portfolio until it is too late to act on it.

Meb Faber ·

Bonds are not risk-free, and bond portfolios can suffer major drawdowns.

Meb Faber ·

Fees are one of the most impactful determinants of investment portfolio performance, and most investors overlook them.

Isaiah Taylor ·

Nuclear plants should be financed with venture equity rather than project finance, because what is left is technology-execution risk and American venture capital is the best in the world at underwriting that.

Max Hodak ·

Telling your investors after a Series A that you are going to vibe-code your own purchasing system is contrarian enough that any reasonable board would question it.

Zach Holman ·

Asking a referring investor whether they personally invested puts the startup being referred at a disadvantage.

Zach Holman ·

An investor who passes on a pitch they find truly novel will often still refer it to another investor, to get credit for having found it.

July 2026

JL Collins ·

Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance.

JL Collins ·

Buying beyond what you can comfortably afford leaves people financially weaker and stuck living paycheck to paycheck.

Nick Maggiulli ·

Refusing to commit is the right strategy inside a portfolio and the wrong one everywhere else in life.

David Heinemeier Hansson ·

An investor whose only act has ever been allocating money is one to be skeptical of; the ones worth talking to have built something.

David Heinemeier Hansson ·

Bezos's money mattered less as money than as permission: it bought the confidence to say no to every other investor, and the certainty of not needing a job on Monday.

Lyn Alden ·

Businesses acquired by private equity funds fail more often than average because of the leverage loaded onto them.

Lyn Alden ·

Private equity's short fund cycles push firms toward aggressive cost-cutting that erodes what made an acquired business successful.

Tiago Forte ·

Under rising uncertainty, people should shorten their planning horizon rather than invest in a distant future.

Jason Zweig ·

Good economic times tend to produce bad financial ideas, while bad times produce good ones.

June 2026

Aswath Damodaran ·

Active investing collectively drags down portfolio returns, and the evidence leaves almost no counter-argument.

Aswath Damodaran ·

Most active investors are not hunting for information; they are betting on mean reversion in data everyone already has.

Aswath Damodaran ·

The claim that passive investing has made markets less efficient is overwrought.

Brad Feld ·

Markets reward growth until it stalls, then they reward profitability instead.

Vicki Boykis ·

The local AI model ecosystem is worth investing in now.

Ray Dalio ·

Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little.

Bill Gurley ·

Investors have collectively absorbed the idea of increasing returns and power laws, and that belief is what makes them take ever more risk.

Phil Trammell ·

Whoever fails to satiate in capital rationally saves more, and therefore ends up holding most of the wealth in the long run.

Kelsey Hightower ·

Money is worth having as freedom tokens: the point of it is being able to leave the game, not what it buys.

Mark Pincus ·

A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at.

Sasha Chapin ·

Most contemporary restaurants are over-optimized, investor-backed, and homogenized by branding rather than genuine culinary vision.

May 2026

Dan Shipper ·

SaaS stocks are a buy right now.

Tommy Geoco ·

The skill worth investing in is building intent and moving between altitudes, from product thinking to the interaction moment to workflows.

Eric Ries ·

Foundation-owned companies are six times more likely to reach their fiftieth year, and they return more to investors rather than less.

Eric Ries ·

Becoming a public benefit corporation does not make you the good guys, but it does stop investors suing you for pursuing your stated purpose.

April 2026

Jensen Huang ·

Nvidia's real miss was not seeing that a frontier lab could never be funded by venture capital, so its compute suppliers had to become its investors.

March 2026

swyx ·

People who actively participate in a field give better commentary on it than pure observers with no stake in the outcome.

JL Collins ·

The point of money is what it can earn, not what it can buy.

Sanjay Bakshi ·

Retained corporate earnings do not automatically translate into capital appreciation equal to the earnings retained.

Sanjay Bakshi ·

A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack.

February 2026

Ray Dalio ·

An investor's starting point should be the portfolio that is best to hold independent of any tactical market view

January 2026

Tynan ·

By the time an opportunity is widely known and talked about, it's too late to capitalize on it.

c. 2024–2025

Yuval Noah Harari ·

Getting at the truth requires investing in costly self-correcting mechanisms, which Silicon Valley thought it was exempt from

December 2025

Jason Zweig ·

Investors' expectations for market returns over the next decade are shaped mainly by the events of the last few days, not long-term fundamentals.

Jason Zweig ·

The best time to invest is when professional money managers are too fearful to act and the public is gripped by fear and anger.

Howard Marks ·

Leverage in the AI build-out is neither to be applauded nor feared; what matters is how much debt there is and what backs it.

Howard Marks ·

A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.

Howard Marks ·

If AI enthusiasm does not produce a bubble on the historical pattern, it will be the first transformative technology that did not.

Howard Marks ·

There is no way to capture a new technology’s upside without being exposed to the losses if the enthusiasm proves excessive.

Aswath Damodaran ·

AI pricing is a big market delusion: each company’s implied revenues look plausible alone, but added together they exceed any market that could exist.

Aswath Damodaran ·

Investors in the largest tech companies have voluntarily surrendered their governance rights, leaving founders with unchecked power.

Aswath Damodaran ·

A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires.

Lyn Alden ·

Bitcoin's roughly $2 trillion market capitalization is still early relative to its long-term adoption potential.

October 2025

Albert Cheng ·

Reverse trials work where a product accumulates lock-in, which is why they suit B2B tools and rarely beat an ordinary free trial in consumer products.

August 2025

Nick Maggiulli ·

The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off.

Bret Taylor ·

An applied AI company should not train its own foundation model, because a foundation model is the fastest deteriorating asset there is.

Casey Handmer ·

Nobody will finance new gas turbine factories, because paying one off takes twenty years of a market that solar and batteries will already have taken.

July 2025

Jamie Dimon ·

Being risk-conscious does not mean getting rid of risk; it means pricing it properly and understanding the range of outcomes.

Jamie Dimon ·

Financial history rhymes because every crisis has the same cause: too much leverage, too much risk, and everybody believing it will stay good.

Jamie Dimon ·

At a market price-earnings ratio of twenty-three there is little upside and a long way to fall, where at fifteen there would be much less risk.

Jamie Dimon ·

A margin only counts while you are still investing heavily, because cutting the investment raises this year's margin and lowers the long-term one.

Lyn Alden ·

Daily-reset leveraged ETFs underperform their underlying asset over volatile periods, making them unsuitable outside short-term trading.

June 2025

Guy Spier ·

All genuinely intelligent investing is, by nature, sustainable investing.

Guy Spier ·

Switzerland's private banking industry is destined to become a global center of investing excellence, not just wealth management.

May 2025

JL Collins ·

Robinhood is designed for active traders rather than long-term investors.

Guy Spier ·

AI-enhanced access to information makes copying top investors' strategies smarter than ever before.

JL Collins ·

Market corrections, bear markets and crashes are a normal, recurring part of investing.

JL Collins ·

Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end.

March 2025

Rahul Vohra ·

Launch-early advice does not survive contact with mission-critical software: email is not something you can ship half-baked.

January 2025

Doug O'Laughlin ·

The AI build-out is not yet a bubble, because it lacks the self-reinforcing feedback loop that drove the railway and telecom manias.

Miles Brundage ·

AI companies will not fix their own security without outside pressure, because they bear the cost of investing and everyone else bears the cost of their not investing.

October 2024

Jason Zweig ·

Constant market connectivity has made disciplined, independent investing harder than ever before.

Jason Zweig ·

Successful investing is fundamentally about self-control rather than understanding markets.

Eli Dourado ·

Investors avoid hard tech for its capital intensity while the largest returns available are in exactly those physical markets.

September 2024

Lyn Alden ·

Bitcoin tracks the direction of global liquidity more consistently than any other major asset class.

Lyn Alden ·

As Bitcoin's ecosystem matures and regulatory clarity increases, idiosyncratic 'Black Swan' shocks to its price will become less frequent.

August 2024

Jason Zweig ·

Buying and holding a handful of index funds for decades outperforms most people who trade to beat the market, including most professionals.

June 2024

Tobias Sjösten ·

Wealth is defined by assets that continuously generate money, not by how much money is saved.

May 2024

Morgan Housel ·

Susceptibility to FOMO, especially in markets inflamed by social media, leaves little hope of building wealth over time.

Morgan Housel ·

An investor with a 20-, 30- or 50-year game should not take cues from people playing a different game, such as trading for the next quarter, and that is where much of investing's danger comes from.

Morgan Housel ·

Because stock returns are concentrated in a few winners that are very hard to know in advance, owning the whole index guarantees owning whichever ones turn out to be the drivers.

Morgan Housel ·

In investing, extra effort tends to correlate negatively with results for the vast majority of people, with some exceptions such as Renaissance Technologies.

Morgan Housel ·

Most financial debates are not real disagreements but people with different personalities talking over each other, and there may be no single right answer.

Morgan Housel ·

Risk is best defined as whatever could keep a person from their own goals, so stock-market volatility is a risk for a day trader and not for someone retiring in fifty years.

Morgan Housel ·

Being average for an above-average period of time can lead to a well above-average result, because endurance rather than this year's return is the variable that matters.

April 2024

Morgan Housel ·

Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat.

March 2024

Sam Altman ·

Compute will be the currency of the future and the most precious commodity in the world, so we should be investing heavily to make far more of it.

February 2024

Bill Ackman ·

A margin of safety means paying a discount deep enough that being wrong about what a company is worth still leaves you whole.

Bill Ackman ·

Judging how wide a company's moat is is the hardest thing an investor does, and this is the most disruptable period in history.

Bill Ackman ·

Incentives drive all human behaviour, which makes a management team's incentives central to valuing a company.

Bill Ackman ·

Investing well requires reversing the human instinct to grow excited as prices rise and fearful as they fall.

Bill Ackman ·

An investor who never borrows against their securities can afford to think, because no fall in price can force them to sell.

Bill Ackman ·

Almost no mutual fund earns the fees it charges, so most investors are better off buying an index fund.

Bill Ackman ·

About a dozen holdings captures nearly all the benefit of diversification; going to fifty adds almost nothing.

Bill Ackman ·

Individual investors analysed Tesla better than the professional investors and analysts did.

Bill Ackman ·

Short selling is inherently treacherous and should almost never be done.

Andrew Chen ·

The Bay Area's strength as a startup hub comes more from its culture than from its access to capital or expertise.

June 2023

Nick Maggiulli ·

There is no correct list of best investing books, only the books that speak to a given reader

March 2023

Michael Mauboussin ·

Value investing today is simply buying something for less than it is worth, which all intelligent investing should be

Michael Mauboussin ·

Almost all great investors are intensely intellectually curious

Michael Mauboussin ·

Complex adaptive systems are the best way to think about markets: hard to beat, yet periodically haywire

September 2022

Ray Dalio ·

Risk can be reduced without reducing returns by structuring bets in a more diversified way.

Boris Cherny ·

Most investment returns come from long-term compounding rather than the price paid at purchase.

August 2022

Gary Klein ·

A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.

June 2022

Olivier Blanchard ·

Sovereign debt markets can suffer sudden stops in investor demand even without material changes in economic fundamentals.

Olivier Blanchard ·

A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.

January 2022

Marc Andreessen ·

Investment performance should be judged at the level of a portfolio, never at the level of an individual investment.

Yuval Noah Harari ·

Preventing catastrophic climate change would cost only low single digits of global GDP, perhaps an extra 2%

August 2021

Oliver Burkeman · by

The answer to living inside the news is not to stop reading it but to move your emotional investment back into the part of the world you can actually affect.

April 2021

David Heinemeier Hansson ·

Over-investing in wind and solar may leave you with an expensive, unreliable, dirty grid without sovereignty

March 2021

Gwern ·

More intelligent people tend to be better investors because of lower time-discounting, greater risk tolerance, and more accurate economic forecasts, not any single factor.

January 2021

Howard Marks ·

Value investing should mean buying whatever offers the better value proposition on all factors, not buying one side of the value/growth divide.

Howard Marks ·

The value-versus-growth distinction does not serve investors well in a fast-changing world.

Howard Marks ·

Readily measurable indicators of cheapness are no longer sufficient on their own to produce a sustainable investing edge.

October 2020

Chamath Palihapitiya ·

When the direction of a variable such as interest rates is unknown, one can allocate to sectors that benefit either way.

Chamath Palihapitiya ·

The main fight in investing is with oneself: panicking, overreacting, underreacting, refusing to observe the present, living in the past or over-believing in the future are psychological traps.

Chamath Palihapitiya ·

Defining behavioural principles that protect against the worst parts of one's own psychology can be a winning investment strategy.

June 2020

Amanda Askell ·

Insurance against failure for people pursuing ethical careers would enable more of the risks needed to do the most good.

February 2020

Josh Waitzkin ·

Where accurate feedback is scarce, as in investing, progress depends on creating feedback loops

October 2019

Daniel Kahneman ·

Noise is useless variability: unlike variability that has a selection mechanism and feedback, as in evolution, nothing is learned from it and it is costly.

January 2019

Sam Altman ·

With compounding, the thing to do is trust the exponential and be patient.

October 2018

Tren Griffin ·

An investor has extensive information about the past and the present but, by definition, none about the future.

February 2017

Warren Buffett ·

Investors do better over time in a low-cost index fund than in a group of hedge funds, on average.

Warren Buffett ·

When trillions of dollars are managed by high-fee Wall Street managers, it is the managers who reap the outsized profits, not their clients.

July 2016

Gabriel Weinberg · by

Seeking out and applying mental models across a wide array of disciplines is powerful.

February 2014

Warren Buffett ·

His advice to his own estate's trustee is the same advice he gives everyone: almost all of it into a low-cost S&P 500 index fund, not with a high-fee manager.

November 2009

Alice Schroeder ·

Invest in your education as early as you can, so it has the longest time to compound

Alice Schroeder ·

The biggest business misconception about Buffett is that he is a buy-and-hold-forever investor

September 2008

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ·

Depending on exposure, one can be extremely wrong and be fine, or slightly wrong and blow up

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ·

Prosperity comes from avoiding blowups, as longer life comes from avoiding death

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ·

Only fools optimize, since a simple model error can blow through their capital

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ·

Absence of volatility should not be confused with absence of risk

c. 1994

Charlie Munger ·

The wise bet heavily when the world offers them the odds, and not the rest of the time

Charlie Munger ·

Over the long term a stock is hard put to earn a much better return than the business underneath it earns

The same record, other ways: every position as a chronology, or person by person.