Noah Smith
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
Noah Smith did not write this page.
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Their wordsBut we may be building it faster than we can pay back the money we're borrowing to build it.
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Their wordsThe amount of compute we're building is tiny compared to the amount we will build.
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Their wordsthe doomers provide a valuable service to the world, but at some point you have to realize that they are STRUCTURALLY doomer. They will never feel safe or optimistic about AI no matter what happens.
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Their wordsBut whatever the correct numbers are, the basic point remains the same: AI is now one of the two biggest infrastructure booms in American history, by a large margin.
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Our reading
The notion of "alignment" is incoherent because obedience and benevolence are mutually exclusive.
Their wordsThe notion of "alignment" is incoherent, because obedience and benevolence are mutually exclusive.
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Their wordsThere's a quiet price war going on, which limits the big labs' ability to increase revenue -- and to pay the hyperscalers who have borrowed huge amounts of money.
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Their wordsTrump is building a sovereign wealth fund piece by piece, through corruption and executive overreach.
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Their wordsBut the stakes are higher now — because companies are borrowing a lot more money now, any slowdown in the torrid pace of AI revenue growth could cause a blowup.
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Their wordsBut the more hyperscalers borrow, the more revenue they’ll need just to stay solvent; if the revenue doesn’t arrive, they might have to default on their debt.
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Their wordsUnlike human brains, we can look inside neutral networks and figure out how they work!
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Their wordsThere still has never been an AI video app that's even remotely as good as Sora.
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Their wordsWe're very fucked on bioweapons, and the people telling you "bioweapons are too hard for AI" are putting you in danger.
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Their wordsunder Trump, the U.S. has switched our alliance from Europe to Russia
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Their wordsToday's StarShield shutdown isn't Elon's doing. It's Trump's.
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Their wordsBut you were a cell in the body of the Old Gods, while to the New Gods you are unnecessary and external.
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Their wordsWhat a "car" means has fundamentally changed. China changed it.
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Our reading
The post-pandemic disinflation was likely driven by Fed commitment and forward-looking expectations.
Their wordsThe most likely explanation for this “immaculate disinflation” is that as soon as businesses realized that the Fed would do whatever it took to beat inflation, they stopped raising prices — and inflation simply ended.
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Their wordsMy suspicion is that the "immaculate disinflation" of 2022-23 had something to do with why Bob Hall and Mike Woodford finally got the Nobel they deserved.
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Their wordsThe world would be much better if Russia were cut off from all internet access, forever.
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Their wordsMost successful industrial policies are local, not national.
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Their wordsYou will never reindustrialize any country without bank loans
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Their wordsXi's splashy subsidies are not what made China grow the way it did.
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Their wordsEverything bad in American society, culture, and politics is partly a Russian op
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Their wordsIn fact, they'll have much more work than ever, understanding the results produced by AI and figuring out what to ask AI to do.
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Their wordsI agree that wokeness radicalized the GOP, but I also think that the fear of nonwhite immigration was already driving the Trump movement before wokeness really took off.
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Their wordsThere are regularities in weather patterns that are too diffuse and complex for humans to grasp, but which AI can learn and exploit.
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Our reading
Artificial Superintelligence will be achieved when Claude always knows whether to use ♥️ or 🥰
Their wordsASI will be achieved when Claude always knows whether to use ♥️ or 🥰
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Our reading
If AI invents math with clear practical application, it will be used without being understood.
Their wordsAnd if AI invents math that has some clear practical application, of course we'll use it without understanding it.
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Their wordsPerhaps vertical short-form video is the Great Filter that stops every intelligent species from reaching the stars.
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Our reading
AI will eventually be able to generate personalized videos for everyone to maintain engagement.
Their wordsAnd as the cost of compute drops, AI will be able to generate personalized videos for everyone — content tailored not necessarily to delight you, but to keep you engaged, to keep you swiping, to keep you making in-app purchases.