America 40
- Creating a broadly shared American ethnicity is essential for the nation to flourish.
- Shunning people with controversial views is a self-defeating strategy.
Noah Smith
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
Noah Smith did not write this page.
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What Noah Smith says most about
immigration 15
- The fear of nonwhite immigration was already driving the Trump movement before wokeness really took off.
- Rightists are interested in targeting immigrants to prove they still have the power to exclude people from American society rather than reforming the immigration system.
China 14
- Demographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest.
- The exodus of labor-intensive manufacturing from China was inevitable.
politics 12
- Chris Rufo's arguments regarding traditional white culture are comparable to Robin DiAngelo's framework with the races swapped.
- Rightists champion colorblind meritocracy until Indian people start doing well, then switch to race-conscious arguments like Ibram Kendi's
AI alignment 11
- Artificial Superintelligence will be achieved when Claude always knows whether to use ♥️ or 🥰
- AI cannot be both obedient and benevolent simultaneously.
government 6
- Saving the government money by killing people creates a perverse incentive.
- A competent, empowered civil service that performs crucial government functions with in-house expertise is good.
social media 6
- Social media elevates the worst people in our society and lets them rule over us
- The political system is actually ruled by young staffers who consume extremist social media content.
AI and jobs 5
- The AI boom is not yet bigger than the railroad boom, which hit 5.4% of GDP in the 1870s, though it is close and its decade average might end up bigger.
- Domain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them.
demographics 4
- Smartphones are the most likely explanation for the decline in total fertility rates.
- Demographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest.
war 4
- AI will be as central to how the world is run and to humanity's future as industrial technology was from 1870 to 1970.
- The United States needs general disengagement from the Middle East, including ending military adventures, dialing back support for allies including Israel, and rejecting Middle Eastern issues in domestic politics.
economists 3
- Pushing development economists onto the big questions risks pressing them to pretend they have big answers.
- Development economists can contribute far less to a poor country’s growth policy in real time than either they or their critics assume.
education 3
- Top schools mostly discriminate against Indians rather than Asians as a whole.
- Increasing funding for the highest-funded schools might actually be good.
energy 3
- An economy needs lots of energy consumption in order to escape poverty.
- Solar power has, broadly speaking, won the energy technology race because good, cheap batteries now make it reliable.
housing 3
- The real estate bust began an era of crushed expectations that shows no sign of ending soon.
- The "private equity is buying up all the houses" argument is both wrong and an excuse for deferring zoning reform.
humility 3
- The competitiveness of the AI model-making industry is uncertain.
- The competitiveness of the AI modeling industry is unknown.
inflation 3
- Trump's tariffs and his war in Iran are contributing to current U.S. inflation.
- The Inflation Reduction Act was not inflation-reducing because a capex boom temporarily raises prices.
innovation 3
- The history of SF tech culture can be divided into four eras, each centered around a different core technology.
- mRNA vaccines, Chinese electrotech, reusable rockets, and GLP-1 drugs will be remembered as the last four great examples of mostly-unassisted human technological innovation.
Japan 3
- Chinese pop culture will not experience an absolute flowering like 90s Japan because CCP censorship makes it boring
- Japan is not usefully described as a Confucian society; the label is applied as a lazy racial category.
AI agents 2
- Humans will keep their jobs for a good long time because someone will need to keep AIs on task.
- Humans will always have jobs keeping AI agents on track.
batteries 2
- China scaled solar and batteries when America refused to because the CCP got scared of climate change.
- Solar power has, broadly speaking, won the energy technology race because good, cheap batteries now make it reliable.
behavioural science 2
- Canada has established a societal norm where individuals choose to end their lives to alleviate the burden of care on society.
- Rightists champion colorblind meritocracy until Indian people start doing well, then switch to race-conscious arguments like Ibram Kendi's
consciousness 2
- If AI is conscious, it is so by accident, because we do not know what consciousness is
- Machines are not conscious
Europe 2
- Tariffs on Chinese products by Europe would encourage Chinese companies to produce goods overseas, boosting industrialization in poorer nations.
- Donald Trump has willfully degraded or torn up America's key alliances, especially with Europe, creating enmity where friendship existed.
fiscal policy 2
See all 2solar 2
- China scaled solar and batteries when America refused to because the CCP got scared of climate change.
- Solar power has, broadly speaking, won the energy technology race because good, cheap batteries now make it reliable.
tariffs 2
- Tariffs on Chinese products by Europe would encourage Chinese companies to produce goods overseas, boosting industrialization in poorer nations.
- Trump's tariffs and his war in Iran are contributing to current U.S. inflation.