@noah-smith · 164 positions · 1 change of mind · On ppll ↗
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
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Each column is a stretch of time in which the same views came up; a new column starts when one appears or goes quiet. Quiet means nothing on it in our sources for that stretch, which is not the same as a change of mind; Dropped means they said they no longer hold it; tap the card for which claim and when. Revised means the view carries on but one of its claims was dropped. Each row is one view, in the same place all the way along. The number is how many claims in that stretch; we hold 10 in 2025, 171 in 2026.
AI will be central to the world, and its biological and alignment risks are underrated
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterThat was true of industrial technology in 1870-1970; people basically got used to the idea that railroads and factories and oil and industrialized warfare and such matters were central to the way the world was run and to the collective future of humanity. AI is going to be like that going forward, and we’re just going to have to get used to that.↗Roundup #88: Is it time to panic yet?noahpinion.blog · 18 Sept 2026
Their wordsThat was true of industrial technology in 1870-1970; people basically got used to the idea that railroads and factories and oil and industrialized warfare and such matters were central to the way the world was run and to the collective future of humanity. AI is going to be like that going forward, and we’re just going to have to get used to that.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterThe people who are confidently proclaiming that AI won't be able to make bioweapons are BEING VERY FOOLISH.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 17 Sept 2026
Their wordsThe people who are confidently proclaiming that AI won't be able to make bioweapons are BEING VERY FOOLISH.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterRemember this when you hear people who tell you that AI can't create superviruses because it doesn't have enough real-world data↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 23 Sept 2026
Their wordsRemember this when you hear people who tell you that AI can't create superviruses because it doesn't have enough real-world data
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterThere are only five possible futures for superintelligence: 1. Kills human race 2. Human disempowerment 3. Paperclip maximizer 4. Departs for parts unknown 5. Stoner↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 18 Sept 2026
Their wordsThere are only five possible futures for superintelligence: 1. Kills human race 2. Human disempowerment 3. Paperclip maximizer 4. Departs for parts unknown 5. Stoner
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterAI alignment will forever be balancing the tradeoff between paperclip-maximizing and disempowerment, because these two rival concepts of alignment are fundamentally incompatible.↗Roundup #87: Technology BAD!!noahpinion.blog · 1 Sept 2026
Their wordsAI alignment will forever be balancing the tradeoff between paperclip-maximizing and disempowerment, because these two rival concepts of alignment are fundamentally incompatible.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter10% is pretty much the standard number you get when you ask AI people about the risk of human extinction from AI.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 11 Sept 2026
Their words10% is pretty much the standard number you get when you ask AI people about the risk of human extinction from AI.
Their wordsDomain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them, because they mistake human difficulties for universal difficulty.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterAI has plenty of issues, but it also creates plenty of benefits for regular Americans: 1. Huge consumer surplus (people love using chatbots) 2. Lots of construction jobs 3. Property tax revenue 4. Supporting the whole macroeconomy↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 5 Oct 2026
Their wordsAI has plenty of issues, but it also creates plenty of benefits for regular Americans: 1. Huge consumer surplus (people love using chatbots) 2. Lots of construction jobs 3. Property tax revenue 4. Supporting the whole macroeconomy
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterPaul Krugman says of AI: "This is a technology of, by and for oligarchs, with hardly any of the benefits trickling down to regular Americans." He is wrong.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 5 Oct 2026
Their wordsPaul Krugman says of AI: "This is a technology of, by and for oligarchs, with hardly any of the benefits trickling down to regular Americans." He is wrong.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterIn fact, although estimates of the effect of the data center buildout on construction employment produce very different numbers, they all agree that it’s a significant positive impact.↗What the AI boom is doing for Americansnoahpinion.blog · 5 Oct 2026
Their wordsIn fact, although estimates of the effect of the data center buildout on construction employment produce very different numbers, they all agree that it’s a significant positive impact.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterThat means that AI will show up in GDP as part of the value added in other sectors like health care, entertainment, and manufacturing.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 2 Oct 2026
Their wordsThat means that AI will show up in GDP as part of the value added in other sectors like health care, entertainment, and manufacturing.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterI'm not sure why people keep saying that the AI boom is bigger than the railroads. It's getting close, and the decade average might end up bigger, but railroads hit 5.4% of GDP in the 1870s and 4% of GDP in the 1880s.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 26 Sept 2026
Their wordsI'm not sure why people keep saying that the AI boom is bigger than the railroads. It's getting close, and the decade average might end up bigger, but railroads hit 5.4% of GDP in the 1870s and 4% of GDP in the 1880s.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterSocial media is destroying out society. Quitting doesn't help because everyone else is still on it. It's a bad equilibrium. It needs to be solved with government regulations.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 15 Sept 2026
Their wordsSocial media is destroying out society. Quitting doesn't help because everyone else is still on it. It's a bad equilibrium. It needs to be solved with government regulations.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterSocial media put our entire discourse in the hands of our society's biggest assholes and idiots, just in time for the arrival of an alien superintelligence↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 14 Sept 2026
Their wordsSocial media put our entire discourse in the hands of our society's biggest assholes and idiots, just in time for the arrival of an alien superintelligence
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterGiven the timing and the microeconomic evidence, smartphones are the likeliest explanation for why instead of leveling out near 2, the total fertility rate in rich countries — and, increasingly, in middle-income countries — has busted right through that floor and headed down toward zero.↗Maybe the Rapture is already herenoahpinion.blog · 9 Oct 2026
Their wordsGiven the timing and the microeconomic evidence, smartphones are the likeliest explanation for why instead of leveling out near 2, the total fertility rate in rich countries — and, increasingly, in middle-income countries — has busted right through that floor and headed down toward zero.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterPerhaps vertical short-form video is the Great Filter that stops every intelligent species from reaching the stars.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 9 Oct 2026
Their wordsPerhaps vertical short-form video is the Great Filter that stops every intelligent species from reaching the stars.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterwe're actually ruled by 27-year-old staffers who mainline extremist X and TikTok slop↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 4 Oct 2026
Their wordswe're actually ruled by 27-year-old staffers who mainline extremist X and TikTok slop
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterAmericans hate AI because the last wave of technology -- the social-mobile age -- went badly for them.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 24 Sept 2026
Their wordsAmericans hate AI because the last wave of technology -- the social-mobile age -- went badly for them.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterA third principle that liberals should embrace is that the purpose of immigration is to benefit the people who already live in the country that is receiving the immigrants. Immigration to America must be for the benefit of Americans.↗Liberalism needs a new philosophy of immigrationnoahpinion.blog · 9 Sept 2026
Their wordsA third principle that liberals should embrace is that the purpose of immigration is to benefit the people who already live in the country that is receiving the immigrants. Immigration to America must be for the benefit of Americans.
Their wordsBut speaking only for my own country, I believe that if America gives up immigration, it will lose one of the key things that has made it great.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newslettermany immigrants are the type of people who built America and who keep it strong and dynamic↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 9 Sept 2026
Their wordsmany immigrants are the type of people who built America and who keep it strong and dynamic
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterI think there aren't many Indians in America right now, and I would like to bring in a lot more 🙋↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 15 Sept 2026
Their wordsI think there aren't many Indians in America right now, and I would like to bring in a lot more 🙋
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterMost importantly, they see the world in terms of collective zero-sum competition between groups. To the New Right, if Indians get into the University of Texas, it means that White people must have been “replaced” at that university — or at American universities in general.↗The anti-American Rightnoahpinion.blog · 16 Sept 2026
Their wordsMost importantly, they see the world in terms of collective zero-sum competition between groups. To the New Right, if Indians get into the University of Texas, it means that White people must have been “replaced” at that university — or at American universities in general.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterThe New Right sees the world as a zero-sum collective competition between racial groups.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 16 Sept 2026
Their wordsThe New Right sees the world as a zero-sum collective competition between racial groups.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterIt’s this pathological inability to understand alliances and coalition-building that will ultimately doom the New Right. Like the far Left, this is a movement built to exclude and divide and splinter — both because of the querulous personalities of rightists themselves, and because of the intransigence of a racial ideology that abhors any impurity.↗The anti-American Rightnoahpinion.blog · 16 Sept 2026
Their wordsIt’s this pathological inability to understand alliances and coalition-building that will ultimately doom the New Right. Like the far Left, this is a movement built to exclude and divide and splinter — both because of the querulous personalities of rightists themselves, and because of the intransigence of a racial ideology that abhors any impurity.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterRightists will scream "Colorblind meritocracy!" right up until the point where Indian people start doing well, at which point every rightist turns into Ibram Kendi↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 3 Oct 2026
Their wordsRightists will scream "Colorblind meritocracy!" right up until the point where Indian people start doing well, at which point every rightist turns into Ibram Kendi
Their wordsI believe that the MAGA movement is simply one of America’s periodic nativist backlashes, like the Know-Nothings in the 1850s or the restrictionists of the 1910s.
Their wordsImmigrants and their children should not be required to forsake every symbol of the old world, abandon their religion, or forget their heritage.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterHe has willfully degraded or torn up America’s key alliances, especially with Europe, and created enmity where friendship once reigned.↗How we can beat Chinanoahpinion.blog · 20 Sept 2026
Their wordsHe has willfully degraded or torn up America’s key alliances, especially with Europe, and created enmity where friendship once reigned.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterTrump has done lots of things to make inflation worse in his second term: 1. Tariffs 2. Massive deficits that he says we can "pay back" with inflation 3. The Iran War↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 3 Oct 2026
Their wordsTrump has done lots of things to make inflation worse in his second term: 1. Tariffs 2. Massive deficits that he says we can "pay back" with inflation 3. The Iran War
Their wordsThe current problem with prices might be one part AI construction boom, but it is one part Trump's tariffs and one part Trump's war in Iran as well.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterThe United States is simply too internally divided to engage in the sort of far-seeing, purposeful, smart kind of international competition that we pursued so effectively in the 20th century.↗How we can beat Chinanoahpinion.blog · 20 Sept 2026
Their wordsThe United States is simply too internally divided to engage in the sort of far-seeing, purposeful, smart kind of international competition that we pursued so effectively in the 20th century.
Their wordsBut overall, the era of heavy U.S. involvement in the Middle East has been a disaster for U.S. power and prestige, and it’s time for that era to end.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterWhat the United States needs, now more than ever, is general disengagement from the Middle East — an end to military adventures, a dialing back of support for Middle Eastern “allies” (including Israel), and a forceful rejection of Middle Eastern issues in American domestic politics.↗Get the Middle East out of my politics!noahpinion.blog · 12 Sept 2026
Their wordsWhat the United States needs, now more than ever, is general disengagement from the Middle East — an end to military adventures, a dialing back of support for Middle Eastern “allies” (including Israel), and a forceful rejection of Middle Eastern issues in American domestic politics.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterTechnological leapfrogging in action. China realized that internal combustion cars are largely obsolete, and mastered the he technology of the future. We didn't.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 29 Aug 2026
Their wordsTechnological leapfrogging in action. China realized that internal combustion cars are largely obsolete, and mastered the he technology of the future. We didn't.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterChina scaled solar and batteries when America refused to, because the CCP got scared of climate change.↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 14 Sept 2026
Their wordsChina scaled solar and batteries when America refused to, because the CCP got scared of climate change.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterBecause solar has, broadly speaking, won the technological race. Intermittency was the last big problem, and batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to make solar reliable.↗Why you won’t get a flying carnoahpinion.blog · 3 Sept 2026
Their wordsBecause solar has, broadly speaking, won the technological race. Intermittency was the last big problem, and batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to make solar reliable.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterExport controls work. "Export controls just make Chinese companies work harder or catch up" is propaganda ass shite↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com · 18 Sept 2026
Their wordsExport controls work. "Export controls just make Chinese companies work harder or catch up" is propaganda ass shite
Their wordsUnless and until AI gets smart enough to study human society from a bird’s-eye view, I think we should be humble about how much we expect development economists to be able to contribute to developing countries’ growth policies in real time.
Their wordsSo we should be careful that exhortations for development economists to focus on the Big Questions don’t pressure them to pretend that they have the Big Answers.
Their wordsThe real problem is the absence of firms small and large to employ people productively. The root of the problem is political instability, economic uncertainty, and a country’s high cost structure, among other things. A government’s attention is properly on these bigger issues.
Their wordsIf countries want to be great manufacturers, they can’t just find a few industries they’re good at; they need to work on developing whole domestic ecosystems of interrelated industries.
Their wordsMost manufacturing miracles in history started with women migrating from farms to cities to work in labor-intensive light industry (garments, toys, electronics, etc.).
Their wordsThis is extremely encouraging, as it shows that countries can still catch up all the way to developed status even without world-beating national champion manufacturers like Samsung and Hyundai.
Their wordsIn other words, if India keeps growing as fast as it’s growing right now, it will be a developed country before kids born today are out of college.
Their wordsThe counterargument here — which I made in 2020 and which a number of economists made in response to JFV’s post — is that it’s better to study something knowable than to study something unknowable, even if the knowable things are less important.