Domain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• Agency and clock speed beat domain experience in a hire, and in a fast-moving field experience is often a crutch of habits that need discarding. ACAlbert Cheng5 Oct 2025similar wording
• AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years. MBMiles Brundage20 Dec 2024similar wording
• The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run. RGRyan Greenblatt11 Aug 2026similar wording
• Bigger is smarter, always: bringing your special domain knowledge to the model is the wrong side of the bitter lesson. SYSteve Yegge11 Mar 2026similar wording
• Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap. ACAjeya Cotra29 Aug 2023similar wording

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