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Miles Brundage

@miles-brundage · 11 positions · 0 changes of mind

Independent AI policy researcher. Was head of policy research and then senior adviser for AGI readiness at OpenAI until October 2024, and now writes about AI governance from outside the labs.

Miles Brundage did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

  1. Our reading

    AI will eliminate many millions of jobs within the next few years, and that disruption will shape the politics of everything else about AI.

    Their wordsI’m quite confident that AI will eliminate many millions of people’s jobs in the next few years.

    ↗Some Very Important Things (That I Won't Be Working On This Year)milesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece

    politics

    Interesting

  3. Our reading

    Companies do not have sufficient incentives to mitigate the major risks of AI, and competition between them is driving corner-cutting.

    Their wordsContrary to some people’s beliefs, companies do not in fact have sufficient incentives to mitigate all major risks, and competition is driving corner-cutting that needs to be reined in somehow.

    ↗Some Very Important Things (That I Won't Be Working On This Year)milesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

    Interesting
  4. 13 days earlier

  5. Our reading

    AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.

    Their wordsGPT-2, R1, and nearly every other AI model released since 2018 have all been part of a consistent story: AI capabilities that rival and ultimately exceed human intelligence are easier and cheaper to build than almost anyone can intuitively grasp, and this gets easier and cheaper every month.

    ↗The Real Lesson of DeepSeek's R1milesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece

    Interesting

  7. Our reading

    Any given AI capability becomes cheap and widely available within a couple of years of first being reached, so nobody can be kept away from it for long.

    Their wordsEach and every time, it took at most a few years but typically months before other companies would achieve the same level of performance using a broadly similar, and always relatively simple, recipe.

    ↗The Real Lesson of DeepSeek's R1milesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

    Interesting

  9. Our reading

    The United States cannot hold a monopoly on superhuman AI, so competing with China has to be paired with coexisting with it.

    Their wordsAI competition needs to be tempered with a recognition that China isn’t going away as a player in AI, and that coexistence must also be a part of America’s strategy.

    ↗The Real Lesson of DeepSeek's R1milesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

    ChinaAmerica

    Interesting
  10. 3 weeks earlier

  11. Our reading

    AI companies will not fix their own security without outside pressure, because they bear the cost of investing and everyone else bears the cost of their not investing.

    Their wordsAnd while the costs of investing in security are largely borne by the company, the costs of under-investing are borne by a much larger set of actors, e.g. perhaps the country or world as a whole.

    ↗Why Security Comes Firstmilesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece

    Interesting

  13. Our reading

    Securing model weights against theft is a more urgent policy priority than safety research, because security is built out of atoms and takes calendar time that safety does not.

    Their wordsIncreasing the incentive and technical ability of AI companies to have good security is a very high priority, and in my view even more urgent than safety (though that’s also very important).

    ↗Why Security Comes Firstmilesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

    Interesting
  14. 3 weeks earlier

  15. Our reading

    AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years.

    Their wordsAI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built and deployed in the next few years.

    ↗Time's Up for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 4 in this piece

    Interesting

  17. Our reading

    Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.

    Their wordsIf there are ways that you can help improve the governance of AI in these and other countries, you should be doing it now or in the next few months, not planning for ways to have an impact several years from now.

    ↗Time's Up for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 4 in this piece

    Interesting

  19. Our reading

    There is no private evidence behind frontier-lab confidence in fast AI progress; the evidence is public and outsiders have simply not absorbed it.

    Their wordsThere is no secret insight that frontier AI companies have which explains why people who work there are so bullish about AI capabilities improving rapidly in the next few years.

    ↗Time's Up for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 4 in this piece

    Interesting

  21. Our reading

    Once model weights leave their owner's control the loss is irreversible, which is why securing them is the precondition for governing AI at all.

    Their wordsIf you can’t control where AI weights go (i.e., prevent leaking or theft), you can’t govern the technology.

    ↗Time's Up for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com 4th of 4 in this piece

    Interesting