Miles Brundage
Independent AI policy researcher. Was head of policy research and then senior adviser for AGI readiness at OpenAI until October 2024, and now writes about AI governance from outside the labs.
Miles Brundage did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
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Their wordsBut in a climate of rushed decisions and fierce competition, we could lose control over AI even if almost no one wants that outcome.
↗My speech at Borgo Laudato Si’milesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsAI is developing at a very rapid pace, far more rapidly than most outside of the industry fully understand, and far more rapidly than almost anyone in the industry predicted.
↗My speech at Borgo Laudato Si’milesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsLoss of control is a risk for the next few years, not the next few decades as many experts once thought.
↗My speech at Borgo Laudato Si’milesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 5 months earlier
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Their wordsWe need to accept that at best, we will just barely avoid some of the worst case scenarios (e.g., an AI-enabled biological weapon that kills billions, a rogue AI takeover, or stable global totalitarianism enabled by AI), given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to the pace of governance.
↗We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsHistory has shown very extensively that, left to their own devices, even if something could be done safely, people in a hurry will find all sorts of ways to f*** things up.
↗We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsI think frontier AI auditing (covering both safety and security) is both urgently needed and doable, and can help avoid extreme concentration of power, since it introduces external oversight into the decision-making of people with a "country of geniuses in a datacenter" at their disposal.
↗We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 5 weeks earlier
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Their wordsIn short, whether AI is a normal technology or an unusually dangerous one, it doesn't make sense for companies to check their own homework on safety and security.
↗The Launch of AVERImilesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsScrutiny applied to AI is way below other technologies that - even if you totally ignore the doomers - could put far fewer lives at risk than AI in a single incident.
↗The Launch of AVERImilesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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behavioural scienceattitude change
Their wordsScrutiny typically either jumps several points on any 10-point scale after an incident that kills a bunch of people, or increases very slowly over decades.
↗The Launch of AVERImilesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 4 months earlier
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Their wordsCompanies and countries are tempted to cut corners by default and would benefit from some rules of the road, at least if they're sure others will follow those rules.
↗Some Recent Stuff I Wrotemilesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsthe perspective I outline is very bullish on AI capabilities and very concerned about the risks which may arise by default, but also hopeful that, through foresight and vigorous action, we can mitigate the worst of these risks.
↗Some Recent Stuff I Wrotemilesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsapplying AI to cyberdefense will help us defend against AI that is leveraged for cyberoffense.
↗Some Recent Stuff I Wrotemilesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 4 weeks earlier
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Our reading
AI is becoming capable of synthesizing knowledge, one of the core functions megapapers serve.
Their wordsAI is increasingly adept at directly achieving some goals that megapapers help to achieve, such as synthesizing knowledge.
↗Megapapers and How to Write Themmilesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsBut they can't do everything that megapapers do, such as conveying intellectual heft and legitimacy, and they are not yet a replacement for real, diverse experts.
↗Megapapers and How to Write Themmilesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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LLMsOpenAIAI writingbehavioural science
Their wordsI think that changing societal outcome requires changing minds, and the "heft" that comes from many authors with different backgrounds endorsing a certain set of conclusions is hard to replicate with a link to a shared ChatGPT chat.
↗Megapapers and How to Write Themmilesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 6 weeks earlier
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Their wordsThe state-of-the-art today can be more accurately described as "last-minute, black-box product testing" rather than auditing, and I think this situation threatens public safety, international stability, and sustainable commercial adoption of AI.
- 4 weeks earlier
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Their wordsgoverning frontier AI requires standards for safety and security, incentives for the leading AI developers to follow those standards, and evidence that the standards are being followed.
↗Standards, Incentives, and Evidence: The Frontier AI Governance Triadmilesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsAs AI gets more capable, the risks associated with mistaken claims, fraudulent claims, or too-vague-to-be-verified claims will increase, and a cloud of suspicion between competitors could drive corner-cutting (indeed, this is happening already and could get worse).
↗Standards, Incentives, and Evidence: The Frontier AI Governance Triadmilesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe stronger such policies are, the more "absence of evidence" (lack of visible whistleblowing or lawsuits) can become "evidence of absence" (regarding flagrant violations).
↗Standards, Incentives, and Evidence: The Frontier AI Governance Triadmilesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 1 day earlier
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Their wordsI think computing supply chains are much easier to monitor than nuclear ones - there is only one TSMC and one ASML, but there are nine and maybe soon ten nuclear powers
↗Iran and the opportunities and limits of an “IAEA for AI”milesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsthe current situation in Iran shows that even if an "IAEA for AI" is necessary for some purposes, it won't be sufficient for resolving the tricky geopolitical issues raised by AI.
↗Iran and the opportunities and limits of an “IAEA for AI”milesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsWith AI, breakout times could conceivably be very short - it could be hours, minutes, or even seconds for some very specific but important change to occur.
↗Iran and the opportunities and limits of an “IAEA for AI”milesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 4 months earlier
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Their wordsI’m quite confident that AI will eliminate many millions of people’s jobs in the next few years.
↗Some Very Important Things (That I Won't Be Working On This Year)milesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsContrary to some people’s beliefs, companies do not in fact have sufficient incentives to mitigate all major risks, and competition is driving corner-cutting that needs to be reined in somehow.
↗Some Very Important Things (That I Won't Be Working On This Year)milesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 13 days earlier
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Their wordsGPT-2, R1, and nearly every other AI model released since 2018 have all been part of a consistent story: AI capabilities that rival and ultimately exceed human intelligence are easier and cheaper to build than almost anyone can intuitively grasp, and this gets easier and cheaper every month.
↗The Real Lesson of DeepSeek's R1milesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsEach and every time, it took at most a few years but typically months before other companies would achieve the same level of performance using a broadly similar, and always relatively simple, recipe.
↗The Real Lesson of DeepSeek's R1milesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsAI competition needs to be tempered with a recognition that China isn’t going away as a player in AI, and that coexistence must also be a part of America’s strategy.
↗The Real Lesson of DeepSeek's R1milesbrundage.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 3 weeks earlier
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Their wordsAnd while the costs of investing in security are largely borne by the company, the costs of under-investing are borne by a much larger set of actors, e.g. perhaps the country or world as a whole.
↗Why Security Comes Firstmilesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsIncreasing the incentive and technical ability of AI companies to have good security is a very high priority, and in my view even more urgent than safety (though that’s also very important).
↗Why Security Comes Firstmilesbrundage.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 3 weeks earlier
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Their wordsAI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built and deployed in the next few years.
↗Time's Up for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com 1st of 4 in this piece