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The Real Lesson of DeepSeek's R1

Miles Brundage · 2 Feb 2025 · milesbrundage.substack.com

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Miles Brundage did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. GPT-2, R1, and nearly every other AI model released since 2018 have all been part of a consistent story: AI capabilities that rival and ultimately exceed human intelligence are easier and cheaper to build than almost anyone can intuitively grasp, and this gets easier and cheaper every month.
  2. Each and every time, it took at most a few years but typically months before other companies would achieve the same level of performance using a broadly similar, and always relatively simple, recipe.
  3. AI competition needs to be tempered with a recognition that China isn’t going away as a player in AI, and that coexistence must also be a part of America’s strategy.