korrents

korrents · piece

The Real Lesson of DeepSeek's R1

Miles Brundage · 2 Feb 2025

Others here said this too

AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.

Their wordsGPT-2, R1, and nearly every other AI model released since 2018 have all been part of a consistent story: AI capabilities that rival and ultimately exceed human intelligence are easier and cheaper to build than almost anyone can intuitively grasp, and this gets easier and cheaper every month.

Also said by Scott Alexander, Ajeya Cotra

Read the piece on milesbrundage.substack.com ↗

3 korrents from this piece ↓

Miles Brundage did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.

    Their wordsGPT-2, R1, and nearly every other AI model released since 2018 have all been part of a consistent story: AI capabilities that rival and ultimately exceed human intelligence are easier and cheaper to build than almost anyone can intuitively grasp, and this gets easier and cheaper every month.

  2. Our reading

    Any given AI capability becomes cheap and widely available within a couple of years of first being reached, so nobody can be kept away from it for long.

    Their wordsEach and every time, it took at most a few years but typically months before other companies would achieve the same level of performance using a broadly similar, and always relatively simple, recipe.

  3. Our reading

    The United States cannot hold a monopoly on superhuman AI, so competing with China has to be paired with coexisting with it.

    Their wordsAI competition needs to be tempered with a recognition that China isn’t going away as a player in AI, and that coexistence must also be a part of America’s strategy.

Keep reading

The other pieces are the ones whose claims are worded most like this one's. That measures language, not agreement: they may argue the opposite.