A korrentour readingWhat is a korrent?
Drawn from what Miles Brundage, Ajeya Cotra and 1 other said
Word for word, with the source under each one. They did not write this page.
Independent AI policy researcher
Their wordsGPT-2, R1, and nearly every other AI model released since 2018 have all been part of a consistent story: AI capabilities that rival and ultimately exceed human intelligence are easier and cheaper to build than almost anyone can intuitively grasp, and this gets easier and cheaper every month.
Where this was said
↗The Real Lesson of DeepSeek's R1milesbrundage.substack.com
All 3 korrents from this piecethis one is 1st
AI researcher and grantmaker
Their wordsThis rapid scaleup will probably drive another qualitative leap forward in capability like what we saw over the last 18 months.
Where this was said
↗Language models surprised usplanned-obsolescence.org
All 4 korrents from this piecethis one is 3rd
Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten
Their wordsI think this matches the general finding that AI progress is faster than expected, and increases my certainty that scale and normal progress can sometimes be enough to solve even very difficult problems.
Where this was said
↗I Won My Three Year AI Progress Bet In Three Monthsastralcodexten.substack.com
Added to korrents 12 Sept 2022 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us
In tension with
The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau.
Alexander took his image-model bet as evidence that scale and ordinary progress can be enough to solve problems that looked hard. Chollet says the LLM line of research reaches a capability plateau and that new architectural ideas are what further progress needs. One reads the last few years as the trend continuing; the other as the run-up to it stopping.
Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.