Dario Amodei
Co-founder and CEO of Anthropic; previously VP of research at OpenAI.
Dario Amodei did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
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Their wordsIf AI-driven labor displacement ends up being large in magnitude and permanently drives down the demand for labor, it will likely be necessary to go beyond mere incentive programs to long-term income support for a significant fraction of the labor force.
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Their wordsFirst, enduring job displacement is undesirable and dangerous, and we should do everything we can to minimize or prevent it, not to bring it about.
- 4 months earlier
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Their wordsI will tell you though what the most surprising thing has been. The most surprising thing has been the lack of public recognition of how close we are to the end of the exponential.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 1st of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsI think there's something going on that pre-training it's it's not like the process of humans learning. It's somewhere between the process of humans learning and the process of human evolution.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 2nd of 29 in this recording
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scaling lawsreinforcement learning
Their wordsthe goal is not to teach the model every possible skill within RL just as we don't do that within pre-training, right? Within pre-training, we're not trying to expose the model to, you know, every every possible you know, way that words could be put together, right? You know, we're it's it's rather that the model trains on a lot of things and then and then it reaches generalization across pre-training, right?
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 3rd of 29 in this recording
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Their wordson the basic hypothesis of you know, as you put it, within 10 years we'll get to, you know, you know, what I call kind of country of geniuses in a data center. I'm at like 90% on that. Um and it's hard to go much higher than 90% cuz the world is so unpredictable.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 4th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordson the basic hypothesis of you know, as you put it, within 10 years we'll get to, you know, you know, what I call kind of country of geniuses in a data center. I'm at like 90% on that. Um and it's hard to go much higher than 90% cuz the world is so unpredictable.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 4th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsMy one little bit, the one little bit of of fundamental uncertainty even on long time scales is this thing about tasks that aren't verifiable. Like, planning a mission to Mars, like, uh you know, doing some fundamental scientific discovery like like CRISPR, like, you know, writing a writing a novel. Hard to hard to verify those tasks.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 5th of 29 in this recording
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Our reading
Models already generalise substantially from tasks that can be verified to tasks that cannot.
Their wordsWe already see substantial generalization from things that that verify to things that don't verify. We're already seeing that.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 6th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsBut but that's actually a very weak criterion, right? People thought I was saying like we won't need 90% of the software engineers. Those things are worlds apart, right?
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 7th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsbut it's not an infinitely compelling product, and I don't think even AGI or powerful AI or country of geniuses in a data center will be an infinitely compelling product. It will be a compelling product enough maybe to get three or five or 10x a year growth even when you're in the hundreds of billions of dollars, which is extremely hard to do and has never been done in history before, but not infinitely fast.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 8th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsLike we see the end productivity every few months in the form of model launches. Like there's no kidding yourself about this. Like the models make you more productive.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 9th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsLike I would say right now the coding models give maybe I don't know a a like 15 maybe 20% total factor speedup. Like that's my view. Um and 6 months ago it was maybe 5% and so and so it didn't matter.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 10th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsI think the trillions of dollars a year market, maybe all of the national security implications and the safety implications that I wrote about in adolescence of technology can happen without it, but I I I also think we, and I imagine others, are working on it. And I think there's a good chance that that, you know, that we get there within the next year or two.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 11th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsThere's There's nothing preventing longer context from working. You just have to train at longer context and then learn to to serve them at inference. And both of those are engineering problems that we are working on and that I would assume others are working on as well.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 12th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsAnd if my if my revenue is not a trillion dollars, if it's even 800 billion, there's no force on Earth. There's there's no hedge on Earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I if I buy that much compute.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 13th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsI kind of get the impression that, you know, some of the other companies have not written down the spreadsheet, that they don't really understand the risks they're taking. They're just kind of doing stuff cuz it sounds cool.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 14th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsI actually think profitability happens when you underestimated the amount of demand you were going to get and loss happens when you overestimated the amount of demand you were going to get because you're buying the data centers ahead of time.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 15th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsbut at the same time, we're spending $10 billion to train the next model because there's an exponential scale up. And so the company loses money. Each model makes money, but the company loses money.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 16th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsThe way you get industries in which there are small number of players are very high costs of entry, right? Um so, you know, uh cloud is like this. I think cloud is a good example of this. You have three, maybe four players within cloud. I think I think that's the same for AI, three maybe four.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 17th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsLike models are good at different types of coding. Models have different styles. Like I think I think these things are actually, you know, quite different from each other. And so expect more differentiation than you see in in um cloud.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 18th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsa worry I have is that the growth rate could be like 50% in Silicon Valley and, you know, parts of the world that are kind of socially connected to Silicon Valley and, you know, not that much faster than its current pace elsewhere. And I think that'd be a pretty messed up world.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 19th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsdoes that mean the robotics industry will also be generating trillions of dollars of revenue? My answer there is yes, but there will be the same extremely fast but not infinitely fast diffusion. So, will robotics be be revolutionized? Yeah, maybe tack on another year or two.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 20th of 29 in this recording
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Our reading
The history of machine learning is of proclaimed barriers dissolving inside the big blob of compute.
Their wordsIn fact, I would point to the history in in ML of people coming up with things that are barriers that end up kind of dissolving within the big blob of compute, right?
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 21st of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsThe the chatbot is already running into limitations of, you know, making it smarter doesn't really help the average consumer that much. But I don't think that's a limitation of AI models. I don't think that's evidence that, you know, the models are are the models are good enough and they're they're, you know, them getting better doesn't matter to the economy.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 22nd of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsso so I think we're definitely going to see business models that that recognize that, you know, at some point we're going to see, you know, pay for results or you you know, in some in some form or we may see forms of compensation that are like labor. Um, uh you know, that that kind of work by the hour.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 23rd of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsgiven the serious dangers that I lay out in adolescence of technology around things like the you know, kind of biological weapons and bioterrorism, autonomy risk and the timelines we've been talking about, like 10 years is an eternity. Like that's that's a that's a I I think that's a crazy thing to do.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 24th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsThe counterarguments against it are I'll politely call them fishy. Um, uh and yet it doesn't happen and we sell the chips because there's there's so much money. There's so much money riding on it.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 25th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsWhat I would say is that you know we are we are about to be in a world where growth and economic value will come very easily. If right if we're able to build these powerful AI models, growth and economic value will come very easily. What will not come easily is distribution of benefits, distribution of wealth, political freedom, um you know, these are the things that are going to be hard to achieve.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 26th of 29 in this recording
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Their wordsit's it's kind of purely a practical and empirical thing that we've observed that by teaching the model principles, getting it to learn from principles, its behavior is more consistent, it's easier to cover edge cases, and the model is more likely to do what people want it to do.
↗Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”youtube.com 27th of 29 in this recording