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← AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
17 connected korrents · 19 moments from 12 Sept 2022 to 22 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under recursive self-improvement
recursive self-improvement
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science In tension Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
In tension: The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau. — tap to centre the map on it The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau. Last stated 2 months ago
7 Aug 2026
FC
François Chollet — no longer holds since 2026-08-07 — tap for who they are
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. — tap to centre the map on it AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. Last stated 2 months ago
3 Sept 2026
AR
Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. — tap to centre the map on it There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
AA
Anish Acharya — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The AI research cycle from idea to experiment will likely soon be 10x faster, but that may not make researchers 10x more productive in the field's net understanding. — tap to centre the map on it The AI research cycle from idea to experiment will likely soon be 10x faster, but that may not make researchers 10x more productive in the field's net understanding. Last stated 4 weeks ago
22 Sept 2026
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. — tap to centre the map on it The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
EM
Ethan Mollick — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists. — tap to centre the map on it The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists. Last stated 3 months ago
29 Jul 2026
AW
Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Scaling the 2019-2023 recipe — same architecture, bigger model, more data — is not enough; further progress depends on new architectural ideas. — tap to centre the map on it Scaling the 2019-2023 recipe — same architecture, bigger model, more data — is not enough; further progress depends on new architectural ideas. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Dec 2024
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2024-10-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The current speed of AI progress could be sustained all the way into recursive self-improvement. — tap to centre the map on it The current speed of AI progress could be sustained all the way into recursive self-improvement. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. — tap to centre the map on it A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A proposal to pace frontier AI development is unrealistic and mainly serves political control of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A proposal to pace frontier AI development is unrealistic and mainly serves political control of AI. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
BT
Ben Thompson — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Adapting over time is a workable answer to humans misusing AI and no answer at all to losing control of systems smarter than us. — tap to centre the map on it Adapting over time is a workable answer to humans misusing AI and no answer at all to losing control of systems smarter than us. Last stated 2 years ago
5 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. — tap to centre the map on it Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: No company should be making the decisions about AGI, and no one person should have super-voting control of one; governments have to put rules of the road in place. — tap to centre the map on it No company should be making the decisions about AGI, and no one person should have super-voting control of one; governments have to put rules of the road in place. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Superhuman persuasion will arrive before superhuman intelligence, which means whoever builds a model can embed their ideals in it long before anyone reaches AGI. — tap to centre the map on it Superhuman persuasion will arrive before superhuman intelligence, which means whoever builds a model can embed their ideals in it long before anyone reaches AGI. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Feb 2025
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
At the centre
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds Read this korrent →
The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau.
Holds No longer holds
AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon.
Holds
There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever.
Holds
The AI research cycle from idea to experiment will likely soon be 10x faster, but that may not make researchers 10x more productive in the field's net understanding.
Holds
The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood.
Holds
The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists.
Holds
Scaling the 2019-2023 recipe — same architecture, bigger model, more data — is not enough; further progress depends on new architectural ideas.
Holds
The current speed of AI progress could be sustained all the way into recursive self-improvement.
Holds
Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds
A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean.
Holds
A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that.
Holds
A proposal to pace frontier AI development is unrealistic and mainly serves political control of AI.
Holds
Adapting over time is a workable answer to humans misusing AI and no answer at all to losing control of systems smarter than us.
Holds
Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.
Holds
No company should be making the decisions about AGI, and no one person should have super-voting control of one; governments have to put rules of the road in place.
Holds
Superhuman persuasion will arrive before superhuman intelligence, which means whoever builds a model can embed their ideals in it long before anyone reaches AGI.
Holds