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← AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
17 connected korrents · 20 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 3 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under Google
Google
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws In tension Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
In tension: The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau. — tap to centre the map on it The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau. Last stated a month ago
7 Aug 2026
FC
François Chollet — no longer holds since 2026-08-07 — tap for who they are
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon — tap to centre the map on it AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon Last stated 4 days ago
3 Sept 2026
AR
Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists. — tap to centre the map on it The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the… Last stated a month ago
29 Jul 2026
AW
Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Scaling the 2019-2023 recipe — same architecture, bigger model, more data — is not enough; further progress depends on new architectural ideas. — tap to centre the map on it Scaling the 2019-2023 recipe — same architecture, bigger model, more data — is not enough; further progress… Last stated 2 years ago
20 Dec 2024
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2024-10-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. — tap to centre the map on it The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the… Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Scaling laws are still working, but the models people actually use run a few months behind the maximum capability Google can deliver, because the biggest model is too slow and expensive to serve. — tap to centre the map on it Scaling laws are still working, but the models people actually use run a few months behind the maximum capability… Last stated a year ago
5 Jun 2025
SP
Sundar Pichai — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around… Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a… Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply… Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is not using language at all, because language requires an intention to communicate. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is not using language at all, because language requires an intention to communicate. Last stated 2 years ago
31 Aug 2024
TC
Ted Chiang — holds since 2024-08-31 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model's apparent mind is mostly our own bias: it predicts text, and leverages our evolved habit of attributing intentionality to anything that acts human. — tap to centre the map on it A language model's apparent mind is mostly our own bias: it predicts text, and leverages our evolved habit of… Last stated 2 years ago
22 Apr 2024
SC
Sean Carroll — holds since 2024-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own… Last stated 5 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A crewed rocket cannot be made safe by making the booster reliable, so the only real way to improve safety is to carry an escape system. — tap to centre the map on it A crewed rocket cannot be made safe by making the booster reliable, so the only real way to improve safety is to carry… Last stated 3 years ago
14 Dec 2023
JB
Jeff Bezos — holds since 2023-12-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A monopolist that can no longer grow by winning new users can only grow by making its product worse for the users it already has. — tap to centre the map on it A monopolist that can no longer grow by winning new users can only grow by making its product worse for the… Last stated 3 years ago
28 Jul 2023
CD
Cory Doctorow — holds since 2023-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI-written code makes formal proof necessary, because human review of all that generated code becomes the bottleneck. — tap to centre the map on it AI-written code makes formal proof necessary, because human review of all that generated code becomes the bottleneck. Last stated 5 months ago
22 Apr 2026
MK
Martin Kleppmann — holds since 2026-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Formal verification is about to become economical, because models are getting good enough at writing the proofs that humans no longer have to. — tap to centre the map on it Formal verification is about to become economical, because models are getting good enough at writing the proofs that… Last stated 5 months ago
22 Apr 2026
MK
Martin Kleppmann — holds since 2026-04-22 — tap for who they are
At the centre
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds AC Ajeya CotraSA Scott AlexanderMB Miles BrundageRead this korrent →
The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau.
Holds GM Gary MarcusNo longer holds
AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon
Holds
The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists.
Holds AW Alexandr Wang
Scaling the 2019-2023 recipe — same architecture, bigger model, more data — is not enough; further progress depends on new architectural ideas.
Holds GM Gary Marcus
Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
Holds JT Jacob Trefethen
The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Scaling laws are still working, but the models people actually use run a few months behind the maximum capability Google can deliver, because the biggest model is too slow and expensive to serve.
Holds
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds GM Gary Marcus
A language model is not using language at all, because language requires an intention to communicate.
Holds TC Ted Chiang
A language model's apparent mind is mostly our own bias: it predicts text, and leverages our evolved habit of attributing intentionality to anything that acts human.
Holds SC Sean Carroll
A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost.
Holds TP Thuan Pham
A crewed rocket cannot be made safe by making the booster reliable, so the only real way to improve safety is to carry an escape system.
Holds JB Jeff Bezos
A monopolist that can no longer grow by winning new users can only grow by making its product worse for the users it already has.
Holds CD Cory Doctorow
AI-written code makes formal proof necessary, because human review of all that generated code becomes the bottleneck.
Holds MK Martin Kleppmann
Formal verification is about to become economical, because models are getting good enough at writing the proofs that humans no longer have to.
Holds MK Martin Kleppmann