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← There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 10 Dec 2015 to 27 Sept 2026.
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AI alignment Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. Last stated 4 weeks ago
6 Sept 2026
AA
Anish Acharya — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon — tap to centre the map on it AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
AR
Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. — tap to centre the map on it The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. Last stated 2 weeks ago
18 Sept 2026
EM
Ethan Mollick — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives. — tap to centre the map on it A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Feb 2018
PC
Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is a slow takeoff, and it will take years to understand what it can actually do. — tap to centre the map on it AI is a slow takeoff, and it will take years to understand what it can actually do. Last stated 5 days ago
27 Sept 2026
MG
Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement. — tap to centre the map on it AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement. Last stated a month ago
24 Aug 2026
JC
Jack Clark — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A deliberately slower pace of AI model releases would still feel faster than the pace of AI improvement that came before it. — tap to centre the map on it A deliberately slower pace of AI model releases would still feel faster than the pace of AI improvement that came before it. Last stated 3 weeks ago
14 Sept 2026
BH
Byrne Hobart — holds since 2026-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. — tap to centre the map on it An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A layer should learn a residual with reference to its own input rather than an unreferenced function, which is what makes great depth trainable. — tap to centre the map on it A layer should learn a residual with reference to its own input rather than an unreferenced function, which is what makes great depth trainable. Last stated 11 years ago
10 Dec 2015
JS
Jian Sun — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are
KH
Kaiming He — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A small enough winning ticket learns faster than the network it was cut out of, and ends up more accurate than it. — tap to centre the map on it A small enough winning ticket learns faster than the network it was cut out of, and ends up more accurate than it. Last stated 9 years ago
9 Mar 2018
MC
Michael Carbin — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are
JF
Jonathan Frankle — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A transduction model can rely entirely on self-attention for input and output representations without sequence-aligned RNNs or convolution. — tap to centre the map on it A transduction model can rely entirely on self-attention for input and output representations without sequence-aligned RNNs or convolution. Last stated 9 years ago
12 Jun 2017
IP
Illia Polosukhin — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
JU
Jakob Uszkoreit — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
NP
Niki Parmar — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
AV
Ashish Vaswani — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
NS
Noam Shazeer — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
AG
Aidan N. Gomez — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
+2
2 more
Same subject: A business making hundreds of millions from an open source project owes it money or contribution, and can be refused its trademarks if it gives neither. — tap to centre the map on it A business making hundreds of millions from an open source project owes it money or contribution, and can be refused its trademarks if it gives neither. Last stated 2 years ago
26 Sept 2024
MM
Matt Mullenweg — holds since 2024-09-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A codec does not really exist until everyone can decode it. — tap to centre the map on it A codec does not really exist until everyone can decode it. Last stated 4 months ago
31 May 2026
JK
Jean-Baptiste Kempf — holds since 2026-05-31 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that will not accept a project’s terms is free to go and use a more permissive project instead. — tap to centre the map on it A company that will not accept a project’s terms is free to go and use a more permissive project instead. Last stated 2 years ago
26 Sept 2024
MM
Matt Mullenweg — holds since 2024-09-26 — tap for who they are
At the centre
There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever.
Holds Read this korrent →
AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon
Holds
The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood.
Holds
A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives.
Holds
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds
AI is a slow takeoff, and it will take years to understand what it can actually do.
Holds
AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement.
Holds
A deliberately slower pace of AI model releases would still feel faster than the pace of AI improvement that came before it.
Holds
An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
A layer should learn a residual with reference to its own input rather than an unreferenced function, which is what makes great depth trainable.
Holds
A small enough winning ticket learns faster than the network it was cut out of, and ends up more accurate than it.
Holds
A transduction model can rely entirely on self-attention for input and output representations without sequence-aligned RNNs or convolution.
Holds
A business making hundreds of millions from an open source project owes it money or contribution, and can be refused its trademarks if it gives neither.
Holds
A codec does not really exist until everyone can decode it.
Holds
A company that will not accept a project’s terms is free to go and use a more permissive project instead.
Holds