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← AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon.

17 connected korrents · 19 moments from 10 Dec 2015 to 18 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under neural networks neural networks Everything filed under reinforcement learning reinforcement learning Everything filed under AI and science AI and science Everything filed under OpenAI OpenAI Everything filed under Anthropic Anthropic Cannot both be trueIn tensionSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. AI model capabilities have not slowed downso far, and their progress probably won'tstop anytime soon. Last stated 2 months ago 3 Sept 2026 AR Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Cannot both be true: The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau. — tap to centre the map on it The LLM line of research will reacha capability plateau. Last stated 2 months ago 7 Aug 2026 FC François Chollet — no longer holds since 2026-08-07 — tap for who they are GM Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are In tension: Large language models could still plateau, and that possibility should be held open even though no evidence of it has appeared. — tap to centre the map on it Large language models could stillplateau, and that possibility shouldbe held open even though no evidenceof it has appeared. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. — tap to centre the map on it There will be no sudden fast takeoffin AI, even though model progress ishappening faster than ever. Last stated a month ago 6 Sept 2026 AA Anish Acharya — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are Same subject: The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. — tap to centre the map on it The current capabilities of existingAI models are barely being used andare often not even well understood. Last stated a month ago 18 Sept 2026 EM Ethan Mollick — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than peopleexpect, and ordinary scaling can beenough to solve problems that lookedvery hard. Last stated 2 years ago 2 Feb 2025 AC Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are SA Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are MB Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medicalprogress is one AI can remove, andwhich ones will remain can beguessed at now. Last stated a year ago 2 Aug 2025 JT Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI models are not yet capable of producing great code — tap to centre the map on it AI models are not yet capable ofproducing great code Last stated 2 years ago 16 Dec 2024 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2024-12-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: Current AI models still fall short of expert human performance. — tap to centre the map on it Current AI models still fall shortof expert human performance. Last stated 2 years ago 27 Jan 2025 NE Nelson Elhage — holds since 2025-01-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: Robot models will reach ChatGPT-level capability within the next few years, even without a ChatGPT-style moment. — tap to centre the map on it Robot models will reachChatGPT-level capability within thenext few years, even without aChatGPT-style moment. Last stated 2 months ago 12 Aug 2026 CF Chelsea Finn — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists. — tap to centre the map on it The bottleneck in AI is no longerthe progress of the models but theirdiffusion — if the models frozetoday, the economy would still takedecades to absorb what alreadyexists. Last stated 3 months ago 29 Jul 2026 AW Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces abehavior pulls it toward whateverimproves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 HK Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. — tap to centre the map on it A physical AI company needs threeAIs, not one — the agent, thesimulator and the critic — turningdeployment into a flywheel. Last stated 3 months ago 3 Aug 2026 DD Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it A verifiable task can be optimisedby reinforcement learning until aneural network performs it extremelywell. Last stated 11 months ago 17 Nov 2025 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: A layer should learn a residual with reference to its own input rather than an unreferenced function, which is what makes great depth trainable. — tap to centre the map on it A layer should learn a residual withreference to its own input ratherthan an unreferenced function, whichis what makes great depth trainable. Last stated 11 years ago 10 Dec 2015 JS Jian Sun — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are KH Kaiming He — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: A small enough winning ticket learns faster than the network it was cut out of, and ends up more accurate than it. — tap to centre the map on it A small enough winning ticket learnsfaster than the network it was cutout of, and ends up more accuratethan it. Last stated 9 years ago 9 Mar 2018 MC Michael Carbin — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are JF Jonathan Frankle — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A transduction model can rely entirely on self-attention for input and output representations without sequence-aligned RNNs or convolution. — tap to centre the map on it A transduction model can relyentirely on self-attention for inputand output representations withoutsequence-aligned RNNs orconvolution. Last stated 9 years ago 12 Jun 2017 IP Illia Polosukhin — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are JU Jakob Uszkoreit — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are NP Niki Parmar — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are AV Ashish Vaswani — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are NS Noam Shazeer — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are AG Aidan N. Gomez — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are +2 2 more Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Codelast while it stays first in use ismeasuring the wrong thing, and hasbeen for a year. Last stated 2 months ago 3 Sept 2026 DR Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
cannot both be truein tensionsame subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2015 to today — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they arefaded, dashed ring: they no longer hold it — they changed their mind

At the centre AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. Last stated 3 Sept 2026 · 2 months ago Holds Armin Ronacher Read this korrent →