Adam Kucharski
Epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who studies infectious-disease outbreaks. Author of The Rules of Contagion and Proof. Writes the Understanding the unseen newsletter on epidemiology, evidence and AI.
Adam Kucharski did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
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Our reading
Seasonal epidemics are driven by a combination of biological and epidemiological factors.
Their wordsThere will be a combination of biological and epidemiological factors behind the patterns we observe. And if that combination of factors changes, we shouldn't necessarily expect epidemics at the same time of year.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
Unusually cool weather does not appear to be a valid explanation for the early rise in flu cases.
Their wordsIn short, unusually cool weather doesn't seem to hold up well as an explanation.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIf we look at school-age children (5 to 14), the rise was later and smaller, and began in late August, during the summer holidays (English schools go back in early September). Schools out... as a theory currently, it would appear.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 1 day earlier
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Their wordsThis focus on the specifics of the content is a common approach when dealing with information that is spreading, much like people often over-index on the pathogen itself when evaluating a new disease risk, rather than considering the wider context in which it is emerging.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsIn the heat of the moment, though, they would often share false content that triggered an emotional response or was aligned with their political views.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 5 weeks earlier
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Their wordsPeople can be remarkably good at filling gaps in memory with plausible conversation, especially if they've had jobs that involved talking to a lot of people.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIn my experience, this only makes the process of providing support harder and slower. Denial, and the delays it brings, gets reinforced by the well-meaning remarks of people who don't see the day-to-day problems.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsI'm no economist, but I suspect countries could give themselves a decent GDP bump by reducing all the time people have to spend unwinding scams and inappropriate salesmanship while supporting relatives with dementia.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 5 days earlier
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Our reading
Domain knowledge can be more important than data when investigating cause-and-effect using AI.
Their wordsWhen investigating cause-and-effect, AI shows that domain knowledge can matter more than data
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsBut if there are organisation or population-specific quirks, uncovering and encoding information about these can be much more valuable than adding more rows to a misinterpreted spreadsheet.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 6 weeks earlier
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Their wordsBut we shouldn't assume that just because a journal or publisher drew a line under a past incident, with some additional quotation marks or references, that it's always the full story.
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their words'Everyone gets it wrong sometimes' is a bad argument when assessing track records
↗Understanding the unseenkucharski.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece