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← The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau.
17 connected korrents · 20 moments from 3 Oct 2012 to 3 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under neural networks
neural networks
Everything filed under Anthropic
Anthropic
Everything filed under measuring intelligence
measuring intelligence
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment Cannot both be true In tension Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau. The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau. Last stated 2 months ago
7 Aug 2026
FC
François Chollet — no longer holds since 2026-08-07 — tap for who they are
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Cannot both be true: AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. — tap to centre the map on it AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. Last stated a month ago
3 Sept 2026
AR
Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
In tension: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Language models are already a form of AGI; what the labs are chasing is a further step, not the arrival of general intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it Language models are already a form of AGI; what the labs are chasing is a further step, not the arrival of general intelligence. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Feb 2025
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The memorize-fetch-apply paradigm behind LLMs can reach arbitrary skill given training data, but it cannot adapt to novelty or acquire new skills on the fly. — tap to centre the map on it The memorize-fetch-apply paradigm behind LLMs can reach arbitrary skill given training data, but it cannot adapt to novelty or acquire new skills on the fly. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Dec 2024
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
FC
François Chollet — no longer holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Work on large language models is not progress toward artificial general intelligence, because the models do not understand what they read. — tap to centre the map on it Work on large language models is not progress toward artificial general intelligence, because the models do not understand what they read. Last stated a year ago
30 Jul 2025
AG
Alexey Guzey — holds since 2024-08-09 — tap for who they are
AG
Alexey Guzey — no longer holds since 2025-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Current techniques restrict pre-trained representation power because standard language models are unidirectional. — tap to centre the map on it Current techniques restrict pre-trained representation power because standard language models are unidirectional. Last stated 8 years ago
11 Oct 2018
KT
Kristina Toutanova — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
MC
Ming-Wei Chang — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
KL
Kenton Lee — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
JD
Jacob Devlin — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Language models perform better on benchmark problems released before their training data cutoff, indicating data contamination inflates scores. — tap to centre the map on it Language models perform better on benchmark problems released before their training data cutoff, indicating data contamination inflates scores. Last stated 2 years ago
13 May 2024
SR
Sebastian Ruder — holds since 2024-05-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Large language models could still plateau, and that possibility should be held open even though no evidence of it has appeared. — tap to centre the map on it Large language models could still plateau, and that possibility should be held open even though no evidence of it has appeared. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. — tap to centre the map on it A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. Last stated a year ago
10 Jun 2025
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AGI research made no progress in its first six decades. — tap to centre the map on it AGI research made no progress in its first six decades. Last stated 14 years ago
3 Oct 2012
DD
David Deutsch — holds since 2012-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A layer should learn a residual with reference to its own input rather than an unreferenced function, which is what makes great depth trainable. — tap to centre the map on it A layer should learn a residual with reference to its own input rather than an unreferenced function, which is what makes great depth trainable. Last stated 11 years ago
10 Dec 2015
JS
Jian Sun — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are
KH
Kaiming He — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A small enough winning ticket learns faster than the network it was cut out of, and ends up more accurate than it. — tap to centre the map on it A small enough winning ticket learns faster than the network it was cut out of, and ends up more accurate than it. Last stated 9 years ago
9 Mar 2018
MC
Michael Carbin — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are
JF
Jonathan Frankle — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A transduction model can rely entirely on self-attention for input and output representations without sequence-aligned RNNs or convolution. — tap to centre the map on it A transduction model can rely entirely on self-attention for input and output representations without sequence-aligned RNNs or convolution. Last stated 9 years ago
12 Jun 2017
IP
Illia Polosukhin — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
JU
Jakob Uszkoreit — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
NP
Niki Parmar — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
AV
Ashish Vaswani — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
NS
Noam Shazeer — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
AG
Aidan N. Gomez — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are
+2
2 more
Same subject: "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. — tap to centre the map on it "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. Last stated 7 months ago
19 Mar 2026
KP
Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. Last stated a month ago
3 Sept 2026
DR
Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do. — tap to centre the map on it A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do. Last stated 7 months ago
19 Mar 2026
KP
Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. Last stated a year ago
7 Oct 2025
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The LLM line of research will reach a capability plateau.
Holds No longer holds Read this korrent →
AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon.
Holds
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds
Language models are already a form of AGI; what the labs are chasing is a further step, not the arrival of general intelligence.
Holds
The memorize-fetch-apply paradigm behind LLMs can reach arbitrary skill given training data, but it cannot adapt to novelty or acquire new skills on the fly.
No longer holds
Work on large language models is not progress toward artificial general intelligence, because the models do not understand what they read.
No longer holds
Current techniques restrict pre-trained representation power because standard language models are unidirectional.
Holds
Language models perform better on benchmark problems released before their training data cutoff, indicating data contamination inflates scores.
Holds
Large language models could still plateau, and that possibility should be held open even though no evidence of it has appeared.
Holds
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.
Holds
AGI research made no progress in its first six decades.
Holds
A layer should learn a residual with reference to its own input rather than an unreferenced function, which is what makes great depth trainable.
Holds
A small enough winning ticket learns faster than the network it was cut out of, and ends up more accurate than it.
Holds
A transduction model can rely entirely on self-attention for input and output representations without sequence-aligned RNNs or convolution.
Holds
"I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out.
Holds
A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year.
Holds
A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do.
Holds
A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad.
Holds