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Jacob Trefethen

@jacob-trefethen · 14 positions · 0 changes of mind

Head of global health R&D at Open Philanthropy, where he directs funding for vaccines, drugs and diagnostics aimed at diseases that get little commercial attention. He writes at blog.jacobtrefethen.com and co-hosts the Hard Drugs podcast with Saloni Dattani.

Jacob Trefethen did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

  1. Our reading

    AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence.

    Their wordsThose are why I do not believe that AI could end disease within 10 years on its own, nor that 50-100 years of medical progress could occur 5-10 years after powerful AI due to AI progress alone

    ↗AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com 1st of 5 in this piece

    Interesting

  3. Our reading

    Rapid AI progress does not automatically produce rapid medical progress; without complementary investment, people still get cancer and Alzheimer's.

    Their wordsRapid AI progress does not automatically mean rapid medical progress. If the point of AI progress is human flourishing, we must make other complementary investments too.

    ↗What does AI progress mean for medical progress?blog.jacobtrefethen.com 1st of 2 in this piece

    Interesting

  5. Our reading

    Designing candidate molecules already feels like magic, but the arrival of new drugs at a doctor's prescription pad will not be sudden.

    Their wordsThe design of the initial molecules to test is pretty magic-feeling, and is happening already – but the arrival of new drugs prescribed by your doctor will not be magical and sudden.

    ↗AI could help lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com 1st of 3 in this piece

    design

    Interesting

  7. Our reading

    Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.

    Their wordsBut I don’t think all bottlenecks on medical progress are equally AI-able in the next decade, and I don’t think all will become irrelevant.

    ↗What does AI progress mean for medical progress?blog.jacobtrefethen.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

    Interesting

  9. Our reading

    Going all in on AI is not the highest-return strategy for human flourishing, even if AI does produce rapid scientific advances.

    Their wordsGoing all in on AI is not the highest return-on-investment strategy if you care about human flourishing, even if AI might lead to rapid scientific advances.

    ↗AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com 2nd of 5 in this piece

    Interesting

  11. Our reading

    The tools that make biology powerful for medicine are the same tools that make it dangerous, so the benefits and the misuse risk cannot be separated.

    Their wordsSome models could be used both for good and ill, yes. Diffusion models in particular could be used by bad actors to hallucinate toxins or other harmful proteins.

    ↗AI could help lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

    Interesting

  13. Our reading

    Fifty years on, monoclonal antibodies still cannot be manufactured cheaply enough to use them for obvious jobs like preventing malaria in children.

    Their wordsYet the production methods still can’t make them below $10 per gram, so they’re still not cheap enough for some “obvious” applications like preventing kids getting malaria in a rainy season.

    ↗AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com 3rd of 5 in this piece

    Interesting

  15. Our reading

    AI tools are already making scientists more productive and creative, and more discoveries should follow.

    Their wordsAI tools are helping make scientists more productive and creative already, and more discoveries should follow.

    ↗AI could help lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

    Interesting

  17. Our reading

    Because research is concentrated in rich countries, both what we know and what gets made are skewed away from the diseases of poor ones.

    Their wordsResearch predominance in rich countries leads to skewed knowledge and product availability.

    ↗AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com 4th of 5 in this piece

    Interesting

  19. Our reading

    Some diseases are technologically solved and still spread, because the remaining bottleneck is trust rather than science.

    Their wordsMeasles is technologically “solved”, but not everyone trusts the solutions or their messengers.

    ↗AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com 5th of 5 in this piece

    Interesting
  20. 2 months earlier

  21. Our reading

    R&D spending varies more than tenfold across diseases for no good reason, which is where the best opportunities in science funding are.

    Their wordsOur punchline is that R&D spending varies by 10X+ across diseases for no good reason. I've been poking at that punchline for the last six or so years, from different directions, and I am confident it's true.

    ↗A Quantitative Approach to Vaccine Fundingblog.jacobtrefethen.com 1st of 2 in this piece

    Interesting

  23. Our reading

    Infectious diseases get far less industry R&D per death than non-communicable ones, because they mostly kill people in countries where a cure pays less.

    Their wordsInfectious diseases as a category receive vastly less R&D spending from industry than non-communicable diseases, per death they cause, because they disproportionately kill people in lower- and middle-income countries where the payoff for making a cure is less lucrative.

    ↗A Quantitative Approach to Vaccine Fundingblog.jacobtrefethen.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

    Interesting
  24. 16 months earlier

  25. Our reading

    Technological progress does not deliver the most important technologies first; what people choose to work on decides what exists.

    Their wordsTechnological progress is not a mystical force that delivers the most important ones first.

    ↗10 technologies that won't exist in 5 yearsblog.jacobtrefethen.com 1st of 2 in this piece

    Interesting

  27. Our reading

    Ten billion dollars over ten years would deliver most of a list of missing life-saving health technologies, so their absence is a funding choice rather than a scientific limit.

    Their wordsWith an extra $10 billion over 10 years I’m pretty sure we’d get to 5 or 6 of the 10 on the list, and millions of unnecessary deaths would be prevented.

    ↗10 technologies that won't exist in 5 yearsblog.jacobtrefethen.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

    Interesting