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Jacob Trefethen

Jacob Trefethen

@jacob-trefethen · 14 positions · On ppll ↗

Head of global health R&D at Open Philanthropy, where he directs funding for vaccines, drugs and diagnostics aimed at diseases that get little commercial attention. He writes at blog.jacobtrefethen.com and co-hosts the Hard Drugs podcast with Saloni Dattani.

Jacob Trefethen did not write this page.

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6 of Jacob Trefethen's claims fit 3 mental models. Most often: Bottlenecks, Incentives, Leverage.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Bottlenecks

A system moves only as fast as its narrowest point; speed up anything else and nothing changes.

Used by 88 others

AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence.

  1. Jacob Trefethen Head of global health R&D at Open Philanthropy Those are why I do not believe that AI could end disease within 10 years on its own, nor that 50-100 years of medical progress could occur 5-10 years after powerful AI due to AI progress alone AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com · 2 Aug 2025All korrents from this piece
    Those are why I do not believe that AI could end disease within 10 years on its own, nor that 50-100 years of medical progress could occur 5-10 years after powerful AI due to AI progress alone

Some diseases are technologically solved and still spread, because the remaining bottleneck is trust rather than science.

  1. Jacob Trefethen Head of global health R&D at Open Philanthropy Measles is technologically “solved”, but not everyone trusts the solutions or their messengers. AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com · 2 Aug 2025All korrents from this piece
    Measles is technologically “solved”, but not everyone trusts the solutions or their messengers.

Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.

  1. Jacob Trefethen Head of global health R&D at Open Philanthropy But I don’t think all bottlenecks on medical progress are equally AI-able in the next decade, and I don’t think all will become irrelevant. What does AI progress mean for medical progress?blog.jacobtrefethen.com · 2 Aug 2025All korrents from this piece
    But I don’t think all bottlenecks on medical progress are equally AI-able in the next decade, and I don’t think all will become irrelevant.

Rapid AI progress does not automatically produce rapid medical progress; without complementary investment, people still get cancer and Alzheimer's.

  1. Jacob Trefethen Head of global health R&D at Open Philanthropy Rapid AI progress does not automatically mean rapid medical progress. If the point of AI progress is human flourishing, we must make other complementary investments too. What does AI progress mean for medical progress?blog.jacobtrefethen.com · 2 Aug 2025All korrents from this piece
    Rapid AI progress does not automatically mean rapid medical progress. If the point of AI progress is human flourishing, we must make other complementary investments too.

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Incentives

Look at what people are rewarded for; it explains more behaviour than what they say, your own included.

Used by 85 others

Infectious diseases get far less industry R&D per death than non-communicable ones, because they mostly kill people in countries where a cure pays less.

  1. Jacob Trefethen Head of global health R&D at Open Philanthropy Infectious diseases as a category receive vastly less R&D spending from industry than non-communicable diseases, per death they cause, because they disproportionately kill people in lower- and middle-income countries where the payoff for making a cure is less lucrative. A Quantitative Approach to Vaccine Fundingblog.jacobtrefethen.com · 29 May 2025All korrents from this piece
    Infectious diseases as a category receive vastly less R&D spending from industry than non-communicable diseases, per death they cause, because they disproportionately kill people in lower- and middle-income countries where the payoff for making a cure is less lucrative.

Leverage

Tools, code, capital and debt multiply what one person can do, in both directions.

Used by 29 others

AI tools are already making scientists more productive and creative, and more discoveries should follow.

  1. Jacob Trefethen Head of global health R&D at Open Philanthropy AI tools are helping make scientists more productive and creative already, and more discoveries should follow. AI could help lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com · 2 Aug 2025All korrents from this piece
    AI tools are helping make scientists more productive and creative already, and more discoveries should follow.