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← Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 22 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Everything filed under mathematics
mathematics
Everything filed under protein structure prediction
protein structure prediction
Everything filed under recursive self-improvement
recursive self-improvement
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. Last stated 3 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists. — tap to centre the map on it The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists. Last stated 3 months ago
29 Jul 2026
AW
Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. — tap to centre the map on it AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. Last stated 2 months ago
3 Sept 2026
AR
Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI-assisted biological research still depends on physical wet-lab work that remains a necessary bottleneck for now. — tap to centre the map on it AI-assisted biological research still depends on physical wet-lab work that remains a necessary bottleneck for now. Last stated a month ago
16 Sept 2026
KJ
Katelyn Jetelina — holds since 2026-09-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. — tap to centre the map on it The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
EM
Ethan Mollick — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A narrow, highly accurate model can beat a general one inside its own domain, as AlphaFold did, and materials science and chip design are next. — tap to centre the map on it A narrow, highly accurate model can beat a general one inside its own domain, as AlphaFold did, and materials science and chip design are next. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JD
Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Contemporary physical and evolutionary structure-prediction approaches fall far short of experimental accuracy without a close experimental homologue, limiting biological utility. — tap to centre the map on it Contemporary physical and evolutionary structure-prediction approaches fall far short of experimental accuracy without a close experimental homologue, limiting biological utility. Last stated 5 years ago
15 Jul 2021
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2021-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Deep learning has effectively solved the problem of predicting a protein's 3D structure from its sequence. — tap to centre the map on it Deep learning has effectively solved the problem of predicting a protein's 3D structure from its sequence. Last stated a year ago
29 Jun 2025
EH
Elliot Hershberg — holds since 2025-06-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock. — tap to centre the map on it A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock. Last stated 8 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. — tap to centre the map on it A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. Last stated 4 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. — tap to centre the map on it A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. Last stated 4 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Last stated 4 weeks ago
22 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started. — tap to centre the map on it AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started. Last stated 3 months ago
3 Aug 2026
CP
Chamath Palihapitiya — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
Holds Read this korrent →
AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence.
Holds
The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists.
Holds
AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon.
Holds
AI-assisted biological research still depends on physical wet-lab work that remains a necessary bottleneck for now.
Holds
The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood.
Holds
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holds
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.
Holds
A narrow, highly accurate model can beat a general one inside its own domain, as AlphaFold did, and materials science and chip design are next.
Holds
Contemporary physical and evolutionary structure-prediction approaches fall far short of experimental accuracy without a close experimental homologue, limiting biological utility.
Holds
Deep learning has effectively solved the problem of predicting a protein's 3D structure from its sequence.
Holds
A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock.
Holds
A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved.
Holds
A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent.
Holds
A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.
Holds
AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started.
Holds
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds