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← Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
17 connected korrents · 15 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 29 Jul 2026.
Everything filed under mathematics
mathematics
Everything filed under formal proof
formal proof
Everything filed under physics
physics Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint… Last stated 2 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists. — tap to centre the map on it The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the… Last stated a month ago
29 Jul 2026
AW
Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a… Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around… Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. — tap to centre the map on it It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no… Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very… Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. — tap to centre the map on it An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff… Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. — tap to centre the map on it Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the… Last stated a year ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. — tap to centre the map on it A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after… Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. — tap to centre the map on it A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more… Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Academic credentials — grades, major, the prestige of the degree — barely matter to industry hiring. — tap to centre the map on it Academic credentials — grades, major, the prestige of the degree — barely matter to industry hiring. Last stated 15 years ago
28 Oct 2011
PM
Patrick McKenzie — holds since 2011-10-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. — tap to centre the map on it AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of… Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. — tap to centre the map on it AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory… Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Current AI struggles even to rediscover old laws of physics from data, and when it does, contamination from training is the first suspect. — tap to centre the map on it Current AI struggles even to rediscover old laws of physics from data, and when it does, contamination from training is… Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI-written code makes formal proof necessary, because human review of all that generated code becomes the bottleneck. — tap to centre the map on it AI-written code makes formal proof necessary, because human review of all that generated code becomes the bottleneck. Last stated 5 months ago
22 Apr 2026
MK
Martin Kleppmann — holds since 2026-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Formal verification is about to become economical, because models are getting good enough at writing the proofs that humans no longer have to. — tap to centre the map on it Formal verification is about to become economical, because models are getting good enough at writing the proofs that… Last stated 5 months ago
22 Apr 2026
MK
Martin Kleppmann — holds since 2026-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Formalising a proof in Lean currently takes about ten times the effort of writing it out: doable, but annoying. — tap to centre the map on it Formalising a proof in Lean currently takes about ten times the effort of writing it out: doable, but annoying. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
Holds JT Jacob TrefethenRead this korrent →
AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence.
Holds RT Ruxandra TesloJT Jacob Trefethen
The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists.
Holds AW Alexandr Wang
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds AC Ajeya CotraSA Scott AlexanderMB Miles Brundage
An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario.
Holds DH Demis Hassabis
Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.
Holds HT Helen TonerMB Miles Brundage
A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
Academic credentials — grades, major, the prestige of the degree — barely matter to industry hiring.
Holds PM Patrick McKenzie
AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder.
Holds TT Terence Tao
AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that.
Holds LF Lex Fridman
Current AI struggles even to rediscover old laws of physics from data, and when it does, contamination from training is the first suspect.
Holds TT Terence Tao
AI-written code makes formal proof necessary, because human review of all that generated code becomes the bottleneck.
Holds MK Martin Kleppmann
Formal verification is about to become economical, because models are getting good enough at writing the proofs that humans no longer have to.
Holds MK Martin Kleppmann
Formalising a proof in Lean currently takes about ten times the effort of writing it out: doable, but annoying.
Holds TT Terence Tao