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← Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or…
8 connected korrents · 9 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 6 Apr 2026.
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Everything filed under AGI
AGI Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. — tap to centre the map on it AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met… Last stated 5 months ago
6 Apr 2026
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2026-04-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range… Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around… Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it. — tap to centre the map on it Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of… Last stated a year ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will have ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster, which is what will make it hard for society to absorb. — tap to centre the map on it AI will have ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster, which is what… Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It is good that the agents-talking-to-agents scare happened in 2026 rather than in 2030, when AI could actually be scary enough to warrant it. — tap to centre the map on it It is good that the agents-talking-to-agents scare happened in 2026 rather than in 2030, when AI could… Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A compelling simulation of a human being could arrive within five years, and the technology is heading there whether or not it is a good idea. — tap to centre the map on it A compelling simulation of a human being could arrive within five years, and the technology is heading there… Last stated a year ago
30 Apr 2025
TS
Tim Sweeney — holds since 2025-04-30 — tap for who they are