Scott Aaronson
Theoretical computer scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, known for work on quantum computing and computational complexity. Writes the blog Shtetl-Optimized, where he has kept both his old forecasts and his later verdicts on them in public.
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Nothing held yet.
Changed their mind about
- Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
- Because a few specialists already devote themselves to superintelligent AI, the rest of us have correspondingly less reason to spend our own effort on it.
- Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.