Scott Aaronson
Theoretical computer scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, known for work on quantum computing and computational complexity. Writes the blog Shtetl-Optimized, where he has kept both his old forecasts and his later verdicts on them in public.
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· held 15 years
Believed beforesaid
Their words thenIf I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I’d say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia (with the obvious potential for black swans along the way).
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsOnce I saw the empirical case that a generative AI revolution was imminent—sometime during the pandemic—I updated, hard.
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· held 15 years
Believed beforesaid
Their words thenprecisely because smart people do devote brain-cycles to these possibilities, the rest of us have correspondingly less need to.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsone must never use radical ignorance as an excuse to default, in practice, to the guess that everything will stay basically the same.
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· held 15 years
Believed beforesaid
Their words thenIf I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I'd say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsOnce I saw the empirical case that a generative AI revolution was imminent—sometime during the pandemic—I updated, hard.