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← Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 3 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under AI and human skill
AI and human skill
Everything filed under formal proof
formal proof Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it. Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it. Last stated a year ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. — tap to centre the map on it AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. Last stated 5 months ago
6 Apr 2026
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2026-04-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce. — tap to centre the map on it Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Jun 2023
GH
George Hotz — holds since 2023-06-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Future AI, say in fifteen years, will not be built on the LLM stack; it will have to move to symbolic learning. — tap to centre the map on it Future AI, say in fifteen years, will not be built on the LLM stack; it will have to move to symbolic learning. Last stated a month ago
7 Aug 2026
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2026-08-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Within a couple of decades there will not be many people who can write, because AI has removed the pressure to learn. — tap to centre the map on it Within a couple of decades there will not be many people who can write, because AI has removed the pressure to learn. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Oct 2024
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is not using language at all, because language requires an intention to communicate. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is not using language at all, because language requires an intention to communicate. Last stated 2 years ago
31 Aug 2024
TC
Ted Chiang — holds since 2024-08-31 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model's apparent mind is mostly our own bias: it predicts text, and leverages our evolved habit of attributing intentionality to anything that acts human. — tap to centre the map on it A language model's apparent mind is mostly our own bias: it predicts text, and leverages our evolved habit of attributing intentionality to anything that acts human. Last stated 2 years ago
22 Apr 2024
SC
Sean Carroll — holds since 2024-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A large language model is the genetic system for language: it stores the dynamics of a structure that until now lived only across human brains. — tap to centre the map on it A large language model is the genetic system for language: it stores the dynamics of a structure that until now lived only across human brains. Last stated 2 years ago
13 Jun 2024
SW
Sara Walker — holds since 2024-06-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. Last stated 4 days ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI-written code makes formal proof necessary, because human review of all that generated code becomes the bottleneck. — tap to centre the map on it AI-written code makes formal proof necessary, because human review of all that generated code becomes the bottleneck. Last stated 5 months ago
22 Apr 2026
MK
Martin Kleppmann — holds since 2026-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Formal verification is about to become economical, because models are getting good enough at writing the proofs that humans no longer have to. — tap to centre the map on it Formal verification is about to become economical, because models are getting good enough at writing the proofs that humans no longer have to. Last stated 5 months ago
22 Apr 2026
MK
Martin Kleppmann — holds since 2026-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Formalising a proof in Lean currently takes about ten times the effort of writing it out: doable, but annoying. — tap to centre the map on it Formalising a proof in Lean currently takes about ten times the effort of writing it out: doable, but annoying. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it.
Holds HT Helen TonerRead this korrent →
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together.
Holds HT Helen Toner
Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce.
Holds GH George Hotz
Future AI, say in fifteen years, will not be built on the LLM stack; it will have to move to symbolic learning.
Holds
Within a couple of decades there will not be many people who can write, because AI has removed the pressure to learn.
Holds
Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.
Holds AD Aswath DamodaranHM Howard Marks
A language model is not using language at all, because language requires an intention to communicate.
Holds TC Ted Chiang
A language model's apparent mind is mostly our own bias: it predicts text, and leverages our evolved habit of attributing intentionality to anything that acts human.
Holds SC Sean Carroll
A large language model is the genetic system for language: it stores the dynamics of a structure that until now lived only across human brains.
Holds SW Sara Walker
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
AI-written code makes formal proof necessary, because human review of all that generated code becomes the bottleneck.
Holds MK Martin Kleppmann
Formal verification is about to become economical, because models are getting good enough at writing the proofs that humans no longer have to.
Holds MK Martin Kleppmann
Formalising a proof in Lean currently takes about ten times the effort of writing it out: doable, but annoying.
Holds TT Terence Tao