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← Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 18 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under measuring intelligence
measuring intelligence
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AI alignment
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AI and human skill
Everything filed under AI sentience
AI sentience Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it. Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. — tap to centre the map on it AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. Last stated 7 months ago
6 Apr 2026
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2026-04-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce. — tap to centre the map on it Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Jun 2023
GH
George Hotz — holds since 2023-06-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Future AI, say in fifteen years, will not be built on the LLM stack; it will have to move to symbolic learning. — tap to centre the map on it Future AI, say in fifteen years, will not be built on the LLM stack; it will have to move to symbolic learning. Last stated 2 months ago
7 Aug 2026
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2026-08-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Within a couple of decades there will not be many people who can write, because AI has removed the pressure to learn. — tap to centre the map on it Within a couple of decades there will not be many people who can write, because AI has removed the pressure to learn. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Oct 2024
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Current AI systems are very unlikely to be close to achieving genuine sentience. — tap to centre the map on it Current AI systems are very unlikely to be close to achieving genuine sentience. Last stated 3 months ago
16 Jul 2026
SJ
Steven Johnson — holds since 2026-07-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. Last stated a year ago
7 Oct 2025
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
HK
Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. — tap to centre the map on it A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. Last stated a month ago
15 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. — tap to centre the map on it Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
CD
Cory Doctorow — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. — tap to centre the map on it Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. Last stated 7 years ago
5 Nov 2019
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2019-11-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it.
Holds Read this korrent →
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holds
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together.
Holds
Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce.
Holds
Future AI, say in fifteen years, will not be built on the LLM stack; it will have to move to symbolic learning.
Holds
Within a couple of decades there will not be many people who can write, because AI has removed the pressure to learn.
Holds
Current AI systems are very unlikely to be close to achieving genuine sentience.
Holds
A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad.
Holds
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds
A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score.
Holds
A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve.
Holds
Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them.
Holds
Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect.
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds