Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 11 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a… Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. — tap to centre the map on it Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because… Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around… Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. — tap to centre the map on it Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Oct 2024
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it. — tap to centre the map on it Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of… Last stated a year ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about… Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: What the industrial revolution took 70 to 150 years to deliver, AI may deliver in 20 to 25. — tap to centre the map on it What the industrial revolution took 70 to 150 years to deliver, AI may deliver in 20 to 25. Last stated 10 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up… Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so… Last stated 9 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply… Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: No company should be making the decisions about AGI, and no one person should have super-voting control of one; governments have to put rules of the road in place. — tap to centre the map on it No company should be making the decisions about AGI, and no one person should have super-voting control of one… Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Superhuman persuasion will arrive before superhuman intelligence, which means whoever builds a model can embed their ideals in it long before anyone reaches AGI. — tap to centre the map on it Superhuman persuasion will arrive before superhuman intelligence, which means whoever builds a model can… Last stated 2 years ago
3 Feb 2025
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The board of a nonprofit answers to no one but itself, and the board governing the road to AGI ought instead to answer to the world as a whole. — tap to centre the map on it The board of a nonprofit answers to no one but itself, and the board governing the road to AGI ought instead to… Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Dismissing human-level AI as science fiction is now unserious, because even the sceptical experts put it within a decade or two. — tap to centre the map on it Dismissing human-level AI as science fiction is now unserious, because even the sceptical experts put it… Last stated a year ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even generalised superintelligence will change society more slowly than the AGI community expects, because intelligence is not the only rate limiter. — tap to centre the map on it Even generalised superintelligence will change society more slowly than the AGI community expects, because… Last stated a year ago
18 Aug 2025
BT
Bret Taylor — holds since 2025-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Superintelligence is already here, is more powerful than us, and it rather than humans is now deciding where things go. — tap to centre the map on it Superintelligence is already here, is more powerful than us, and it rather than humans is now deciding where things… Last stated 2 months ago
20 Jul 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-07-20 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds Read this korrent →
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it.
Holds HT Helen Toner
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
What the industrial revolution took 70 to 150 years to deliver, AI may deliver in 20 to 25.
Holds SN Satya Nadella
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean.
Holds IS Ilya Sutskever
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds GM Gary Marcus
No company should be making the decisions about AGI, and no one person should have super-voting control of one; governments have to put rules of the road in place.
Holds
Superhuman persuasion will arrive before superhuman intelligence, which means whoever builds a model can embed their ideals in it long before anyone reaches AGI.
Holds DP Dylan Patel
The board of a nonprofit answers to no one but itself, and the board governing the road to AGI ought instead to answer to the world as a whole.
Holds
Dismissing human-level AI as science fiction is now unserious, because even the sceptical experts put it within a decade or two.
Holds HT Helen Toner
Even generalised superintelligence will change society more slowly than the AGI community expects, because intelligence is not the only rate limiter.
Holds BT Bret Taylor
Superintelligence is already here, is more powerful than us, and it rather than humans is now deciding where things go.
Holds