Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← At the present pace of the AI race, AIs will take over within ten years, but this is not yet inevitable
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 21 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under measuring intelligence
measuring intelligence
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under recursive self-improvement
recursive self-improvement
Everything filed under innovation
innovation
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Everything filed under Anthropic
Anthropic Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: At the present pace of the AI race, AIs will take over within ten years, but this is not yet inevitable At the present pace of the AI race, AIs will take over within ten years, but this is not yet inevitable Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
YH
Yuval Noah Harari — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff. — tap to centre the map on it AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff. Last stated 4 months ago
15 Jul 2026
TF
Tiago Forte — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. Last stated 3 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated 3 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 3 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If AIs can now considerably improve the training of future AIs, this is very unlikely to end well. — tap to centre the map on it If AIs can now considerably improve the training of future AIs, this is very unlikely to end well. Last stated a week ago
21 Oct 2026
KP
Kelsey Piper — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could potentially reach a level of capability where it can perform all aspects of mathematical problem solving, theory building, and definition formulation. — tap to centre the map on it AI could potentially reach a level of capability where it can perform all aspects of mathematical problem solving, theory building, and definition formulation. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jul 2026
TG
Timothy Gowers — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. Last stated a year ago
7 Oct 2025
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
HK
Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. — tap to centre the map on it A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. Last stated a month ago
15 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. — tap to centre the map on it Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
CD
Cory Doctorow — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. — tap to centre the map on it Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. Last stated 7 years ago
5 Nov 2019
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2019-11-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 4 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
At the centre
At the present pace of the AI race, AIs will take over within ten years, but this is not yet inevitable
Holds Read this korrent →
AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff.
Holds
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence.
Holds
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds
If AIs can now considerably improve the training of future AIs, this is very unlikely to end well.
Holds
AI could potentially reach a level of capability where it can perform all aspects of mathematical problem solving, theory building, and definition formulation.
Holds
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds
A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad.
Holds
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds
A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score.
Holds
A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve.
Holds
Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them.
Holds
Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect.
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds