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← AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will…
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 22 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under recursive self-improvement
recursive self-improvement
Everything filed under AI and human skill
AI and human skill
Everything filed under coding agents
coding agents
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under innovation
innovation
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years. — tap to centre the map on it AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Dec 2024
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. — tap to centre the map on it A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. Last stated 2 months ago
7 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. — tap to centre the map on it There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff. — tap to centre the map on it AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
TF
Tiago Forte — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Jobs will not be replaced outright: AIs will take most of the volume while humans supervise teams of them and handle the rest. — tap to centre the map on it Jobs will not be replaced outright: AIs will take most of the volume while humans supervise teams of them and handle the rest. Last stated a year ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Last stated a month ago
22 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started. — tap to centre the map on it AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started. Last stated 3 months ago
3 Aug 2026
CP
Chamath Palihapitiya — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. — tap to centre the map on it An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A machine doing your work better than you is no reason to stop doing it, because the point of the work was never that only you could do it. — tap to centre the map on it A machine doing your work better than you is no reason to stop doing it, because the point of the work was never that only you could do it. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
LS
L. M. Sacasas — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A skill being automated is not a reason to stop learning it: practising what machines already do is often the stepping stone to what only people can do. — tap to centre the map on it A skill being automated is not a reason to stop learning it: practising what machines already do is often the stepping stone to what only people can do. Last stated 11 months ago
18 Nov 2025
SY
Scott H. Young — holds since 2025-11-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A well-written email does not need an AI summary, and an executive who delegates his reading to one has stopped doing the job. — tap to centre the map on it A well-written email does not need an AI summary, and an executive who delegates his reading to one has stopped doing the job. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Coding agents already do coarse-grained recursive self-improvement, because every use rewrites their instruction files and their long-term memory. — tap to centre the map on it Coding agents already do coarse-grained recursive self-improvement, because every use rewrites their instruction files and their long-term memory. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jul 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. — tap to centre the map on it "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. Last stated 7 months ago
19 Mar 2026
KP
Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A coding agent does not learn from its mistakes the way a person does -- it repeats the same error indefinitely unless a human notices and writes it down. — tap to centre the map on it A coding agent does not learn from its mistakes the way a person does -- it repeats the same error indefinitely unless a human notices and writes it down. Last stated 7 months ago
25 Mar 2026
MZ
Mario Zechner — holds since 2026-03-25 — tap for who they are