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← AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 7 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI agents
AI agents
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under self-sovereign AI
self-sovereign AI Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, but humans will still have plenty to do. — tap to centre the map on it Many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, but humans will still have plenty to do. Last stated today
7 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years. — tap to centre the map on it AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Dec 2024
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. — tap to centre the map on it There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Jobs will not be replaced outright: AIs will take most of the volume while humans supervise teams of them and handle the rest. — tap to centre the map on it Jobs will not be replaced outright: AIs will take most of the volume while humans supervise teams of them and handle the rest. Last stated 11 months ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Humans will always have jobs keeping AI agents on track. — tap to centre the map on it Humans will always have jobs keeping AI agents on track. Last stated today
7 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong. — tap to centre the map on it A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong. Last stated 6 months ago
22 Mar 2026
NF
Nicole Forsgren — holds since 2026-03-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: After pre-training, post-training and test-time scaling, the fourth scaling law is agentic: multiplying AI by spawning agents, and the whole loop scales on one thing, compute. — tap to centre the map on it After pre-training, post-training and test-time scaling, the fourth scaling law is agentic: multiplying AI by spawning agents, and the whole loop scales on one thing, compute. Last stated 6 months ago
23 Mar 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-03-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Agent autonomy is a capability, not a product direction: what the person is actually trying to do decides whether more of it helps or ruins the thing. — tap to centre the map on it Agent autonomy is a capability, not a product direction: what the person is actually trying to do decides whether more of it helps or ruins the thing. Last stated 3 weeks ago
14 Aug 2026
SP
Sunil Pai — holds since 2026-08-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. — tap to centre the map on it A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. — tap to centre the map on it A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. — tap to centre the map on it AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. Last stated 8 months ago
1 Jan 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. — tap to centre the map on it A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. Last stated 6 days ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. — tap to centre the map on it A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. Last stated 6 days ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Alignment is no solution to self-sovereign AI, because it is an unsolved problem whose answers cannot be imposed on every AI company on Earth. — tap to centre the map on it Alignment is no solution to self-sovereign AI, because it is an unsolved problem whose answers cannot be imposed on every AI company on Earth. Last stated 6 days ago
1 Sept 2026
DB
Dean W. Ball — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds RG Ryan GreenblattRead this korrent →
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, but humans will still have plenty to do.
Holds
AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years.
Holds MB Miles Brundage
There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Jobs will not be replaced outright: AIs will take most of the volume while humans supervise teams of them and handle the rest.
Holds
Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
Holds JT Jacob Trefethen
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
Humans will always have jobs keeping AI agents on track.
Holds
A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong.
Holds NF Nicole Forsgren
After pre-training, post-training and test-time scaling, the fourth scaling law is agentic: multiplying AI by spawning agents, and the whole loop scales on one thing, compute.
Holds JH Jensen Huang
Agent autonomy is a capability, not a product direction: what the person is actually trying to do decides whether more of it helps or ruins the thing.
Holds
A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good.
Holds
A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office.
Holds AI Alex Imas
AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
Alignment is no solution to self-sovereign AI, because it is an unsolved problem whose answers cannot be imposed on every AI company on Earth.
Holds