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← AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is…
17 connected korrents · 17 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 7 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
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AI agents Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years. AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Dec 2024
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Broad deployment of AI that can learn on the job will very likely produce rapid economic growth for some period of time. — tap to centre the map on it Broad deployment of AI that can learn on the job will very likely produce rapid economic growth for some period of time. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, but humans will still have plenty to do. — tap to centre the map on it Many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, but humans will still have plenty to do. Last stated today
7 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Humans will always have jobs keeping AI agents on track. — tap to centre the map on it Humans will always have jobs keeping AI agents on track. Last stated today
7 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. — tap to centre the map on it AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. Last stated 5 months ago
6 Apr 2026
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2026-04-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. — tap to centre the map on it There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. — tap to centre the map on it A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. — tap to centre the map on it A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. — tap to centre the map on it AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. Last stated 8 months ago
1 Jan 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. Last stated 4 days ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A saboteur among our AI investigators would be hard to spot, because these models are sloppy and spiky enough that a suspicious error just looks like ordinary incompetence. — tap to centre the map on it A saboteur among our AI investigators would be hard to spot, because these models are sloppy and spiky enough that a suspicious error just looks like ordinary incompetence. Last stated 6 days ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough. — tap to centre the map on it A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Oct 2017
ÉT
Émile P. Torres — holds since 2017-10-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Access to large-scale generalist AI systems that could be weaponized should be limited, meaning their code and neural network parameters should not be released open-source. — tap to centre the map on it Access to large-scale generalist AI systems that could be weaponized should be limited, meaning their code and neural network parameters should not be released open-source. Last stated 3 years ago
24 Jun 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-06-24 — tap for who they are
At the centre
AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years.
Holds MB Miles BrundageRead this korrent →
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Broad deployment of AI that can learn on the job will very likely produce rapid economic growth for some period of time.
Holds IS Ilya Sutskever
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
Many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, but humans will still have plenty to do.
Holds
Humans will always have jobs keeping AI agents on track.
Holds
AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together.
Holds HT Helen Toner
There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good.
Holds
A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office.
Holds AI Alex Imas
AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
A saboteur among our AI investigators would be hard to spot, because these models are sloppy and spiky enough that a suspicious error just looks like ordinary incompetence.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough.
Holds ÉT Émile P. Torres
Access to large-scale generalist AI systems that could be weaponized should be limited, meaning their code and neural network parameters should not be released open-source.
Holds