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← Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments on record from 12 Aug 2023 to 3 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under mathematics
mathematics Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. — tap to centre the map on it Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Progress in AI takes a very strong dozen or two researchers, not hundreds or thousands of them. — tap to centre the map on it Progress in AI takes a very strong dozen or two researchers, not hundreds or thousands of them. Last stated 3 months ago
10 Jun 2026
MZ
Mark Zuckerberg — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. — tap to centre the map on it Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. Last stated a year ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. — tap to centre the map on it Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Oct 2024
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. — tap to centre the map on it It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. — tap to centre the map on it AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. — tap to centre the map on it AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different. — tap to centre the map on it AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different. Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
MK
Michael Kratsios — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. Last stated 5 days ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds RG Ryan GreenblattRead this korrent →
Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Progress in AI takes a very strong dozen or two researchers, not hundreds or thousands of them.
Holds MZ Mark Zuckerberg
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.
Holds HT Helen TonerMB Miles Brundage
Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence.
Holds RT Ruxandra TesloJT Jacob Trefethen
It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean.
Holds IS Ilya Sutskever
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds GM Gary Marcus
AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder.
Holds TT Terence Tao
AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that.
Holds LF Lex Fridman
AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different.
Holds MK Michael Kratsios
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds