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← Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
17 connected korrents · 14 moments from 12 Aug 2023 to 22 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under recursive self-improvement
recursive self-improvement
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Everything filed under world models
world models
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under team size
team size
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. — tap to centre the map on it Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Progress in AI takes a very strong dozen or two researchers, not hundreds or thousands of them. — tap to centre the map on it Progress in AI takes a very strong dozen or two researchers, not hundreds or thousands of them. Last stated 4 months ago
10 Jun 2026
MZ
Mark Zuckerberg — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The AI research cycle from idea to experiment will likely soon be 10x faster, but that may not make researchers 10x more productive in the field's net understanding. — tap to centre the map on it The AI research cycle from idea to experiment will likely soon be 10x faster, but that may not make researchers 10x more productive in the field's net understanding. Last stated a month ago
22 Sept 2026
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The current ease of building software with AI will be seen as normal and commonplace within 12 to 24 months, though few realize it yet. — tap to centre the map on it The current ease of building software with AI will be seen as normal and commonplace within 12 to 24 months, though few realize it yet. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
TY
Tynan — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. — tap to centre the map on it Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable. — tap to centre the map on it AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable. Last stated a month ago
10 Sept 2026
TS
Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Last stated a month ago
22 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started. — tap to centre the map on it AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started. Last stated 3 months ago
3 Aug 2026
CP
Chamath Palihapitiya — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. — tap to centre the map on it An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: As AI systems get better at scientific research tasks, it becomes more likely they will soon be capable of improving and building themselves. — tap to centre the map on it As AI systems get better at scientific research tasks, it becomes more likely they will soon be capable of improving and building themselves. Last stated 2 months ago
17 Aug 2026
JC
Jack Clark — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human parity on discovery benchmarks like DiG-bench will be reached by mid-2027, marking the point where recursive self-improvement in AI seriously kicks off. — tap to centre the map on it Human parity on discovery benchmarks like DiG-bench will be reached by mid-2027, marking the point where recursive self-improvement in AI seriously kicks off. Last stated 2 months ago
17 Aug 2026
JC
Jack Clark — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic. — tap to centre the map on it A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic. Last stated 2 years ago
13 May 2024
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2024-05-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Coding is not just another application domain for AI; it is the meta-skill that lets AI generate its own training material and start the recursive self-improvement loop. — tap to centre the map on it Coding is not just another application domain for AI; it is the meta-skill that lets AI generate its own training material and start the recursive self-improvement loop. Last stated 2 months ago
10 Aug 2026
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model that can predict the next frames of a video coherently understands the world, in the only sense of the word that is doing any work. — tap to centre the map on it A model that can predict the next frames of a video coherently understands the world, in the only sense of the word that is doing any work. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An adaptive agent's world model cannot be a static representation learned once and fixed — tap to centre the map on it An adaptive agent's world model cannot be a static representation learned once and fixed Last stated a year ago
17 Jul 2025
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2025-07-17 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds Read this korrent →
Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too.
Holds
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds
Progress in AI takes a very strong dozen or two researchers, not hundreds or thousands of them.
Holds
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
The AI research cycle from idea to experiment will likely soon be 10x faster, but that may not make researchers 10x more productive in the field's net understanding.
Holds
The current ease of building software with AI will be seen as normal and commonplace within 12 to 24 months, though few realize it yet.
Holds
Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.
Holds
AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable.
Holds
A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.
Holds
AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started.
Holds
An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario.
Holds
As AI systems get better at scientific research tasks, it becomes more likely they will soon be capable of improving and building themselves.
Holds
Human parity on discovery benchmarks like DiG-bench will be reached by mid-2027, marking the point where recursive self-improvement in AI seriously kicks off.
Holds
A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic.
Holds
Coding is not just another application domain for AI; it is the meta-skill that lets AI generate its own training material and start the recursive self-improvement loop.
Holds
A model that can predict the next frames of a video coherently understands the world, in the only sense of the word that is doing any work.
Holds
An adaptive agent's world model cannot be a static representation learned once and fixed
Holds