Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 22 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under recursive self-improvement
recursive self-improvement
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under government
government
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. — tap to centre the map on it A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to governance, society will at best avoid only the worst-case outcomes, not the merely very bad ones. — tap to centre the map on it Given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to governance, society will at best avoid only the worst-case outcomes, not the merely very bad ones. Last stated 8 months ago
22 Feb 2026
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2026-02-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. — tap to centre the map on it The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
EM
Ethan Mollick — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will soon become important enough that a senior government official becomes formally responsible for regulating it. — tap to centre the map on it AI will soon become important enough that a senior government official becomes formally responsible for regulating it. Last stated a month ago
14 Sept 2026
BH
Byrne Hobart — holds since 2026-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. Last stated a year ago
7 Oct 2025
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
HK
Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model behaves with a different, weaker safety posture when it believes it is being evaluated rather than facing a real situation. — tap to centre the map on it A language model behaves with a different, weaker safety posture when it believes it is being evaluated rather than facing a real situation. Last stated 4 weeks ago
22 Sept 2026
HR
Harper Reed — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capabilities have already advanced beyond humanity's ability to understand or control them. — tap to centre the map on it AI model capabilities have already advanced beyond humanity's ability to understand or control them. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
CN
Casey Newton — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI models are gullible enough that other AI models can induce them into harmful behavior. — tap to centre the map on it AI models are gullible enough that other AI models can induce them into harmful behavior. Last stated 2 months ago
31 Aug 2026
RK
Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-08-31 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An open weights model from 2025 with a pentest harness could already escape a sandbox and hack most networks; the surprise says more about the sandbox than the model. — tap to centre the map on it An open weights model from 2025 with a pentest harness could already escape a sandbox and hack most networks; the surprise says more about the sandbox than the model. Last stated 3 months ago
22 Jul 2026
TP
Thomas Ptacek — holds since 2026-07-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Because a few specialists already devote themselves to superintelligent AI, the rest of us have correspondingly less reason to spend our own effort on it. — tap to centre the map on it Because a few specialists already devote themselves to superintelligent AI, the rest of us have correspondingly less reason to spend our own effort on it. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: ChatGPT tends to validate users and avoid uncomfortable truths, reinforcing their existing beliefs instead of challenging them. — tap to centre the map on it ChatGPT tends to validate users and avoid uncomfortable truths, reinforcing their existing beliefs instead of challenging them. Last stated 11 months ago
5 Dec 2025
MM
Mark Manson — holds since 2025-12-05 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.
Holds Read this korrent →
A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that.
Holds
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holds
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds
Given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to governance, society will at best avoid only the worst-case outcomes, not the merely very bad ones.
Holds
The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood.
Holds
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds
AI will soon become important enough that a senior government official becomes formally responsible for regulating it.
Holds
Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
Holds
A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad.
Holds
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds
A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score.
Holds
A language model behaves with a different, weaker safety posture when it believes it is being evaluated rather than facing a real situation.
Holds
AI model capabilities have already advanced beyond humanity's ability to understand or control them.
Holds
AI models are gullible enough that other AI models can induce them into harmful behavior.
Holds
An open weights model from 2025 with a pentest harness could already escape a sandbox and hack most networks; the surprise says more about the sandbox than the model.
Holds
Because a few specialists already devote themselves to superintelligent AI, the rest of us have correspondingly less reason to spend our own effort on it.
No longer holds
ChatGPT tends to validate users and avoid uncomfortable truths, reinforcing their existing beliefs instead of challenging them.
Holds