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← Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight…
17 connected korrents · 17 moments on record from 12 Aug 2023 to 3 Sept 2026.
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AI and jobs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range… Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. — tap to centre the map on it Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Oct 2024
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Progress in AI takes a very strong dozen or two researchers, not hundreds or thousands of them. — tap to centre the map on it Progress in AI takes a very strong dozen or two researchers, not hundreds or thousands of them. Last stated 3 months ago
10 Jun 2026
MZ
Mark Zuckerberg — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most of the useful mathematics AI produces over the next five years will be filling in connections that only somebody expert in several fields could draw. — tap to centre the map on it Most of the useful mathematics AI produces over the next five years will be filling in connections that only somebody… Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint… Last stated 2 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year. — tap to centre the map on it A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold… Last stated 8 months ago
8 Jan 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. — tap to centre the map on it AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic… Last stated 8 months ago
1 Jan 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up… Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so… Last stated 9 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply… Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. — tap to centre the map on it AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of… Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. — tap to centre the map on it AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory… Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different. — tap to centre the map on it AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will… Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
MK
Michael Kratsios — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history… Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both… Last stated 4 days ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently… Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too.
Holds RG Ryan GreenblattRead this korrent →
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
Progress in AI takes a very strong dozen or two researchers, not hundreds or thousands of them.
Holds MZ Mark Zuckerberg
Most of the useful mathematics AI produces over the next five years will be filling in connections that only somebody expert in several fields could draw.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence.
Holds RT Ruxandra TesloJT Jacob Trefethen
A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year.
Holds JH Jensen Huang
AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean.
Holds IS Ilya Sutskever
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds GM Gary Marcus
AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder.
Holds TT Terence Tao
AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that.
Holds LF Lex Fridman
AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different.
Holds MK Michael Kratsios
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds