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Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too.

Drawn from what Ryan Greenblatt said

What this subject means

scaling laws Whether more compute keeps buying more capability, and where the curve now bends -- pre-training, post-training, test-time.

What Ryan Greenblatt actually said

  1. Ryan Greenblatt Chief scientist at Redwood Research
    Basically, the story would end up being that to get five years of AI progress, you're probably going to need around I would say like maybe eight years of algorithmic progress very roughly. Um, which is a lot a lot of algorithmic progress.

Added to korrents 7 Sept 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

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