Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.

Added to korrents 29 Aug 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

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• Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. SAScott Aaronson7 Sept 2008
• Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. RGRyan Greenblatt11 Aug 2026
• The current ease of building software with AI will be seen as normal and commonplace within 12 to 24 months, though few realize it yet. TYTynan15 Jul 2026
• Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. RGRyan Greenblatt11 Aug 2026
• Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. SAScott Aaronson7 Sept 2008

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