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← Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.
17 connected korrents · 13 moments on record from 1 May 2020 to 18 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
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mathematics
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AGI
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AI and jobs
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benchmarks Cannot both be true In tension Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Oct 2024
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are
Cannot both be true: AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
In tension: About ninety per cent of drugs that enter clinical trials fail. — tap to centre the map on it About ninety per cent of drugs that enter clinical trials fail. Last stated 6 months ago
28 Feb 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-02-28 — tap for who they are
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2020-05-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. — tap to centre the map on it AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. Last stated 8 months ago
1 Jan 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. — tap to centre the map on it Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will have ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster, which is what will make it hard for society to absorb. — tap to centre the map on it AI will have ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster, which is what will make it hard for society to absorb. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. — tap to centre the map on it AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. — tap to centre the map on it AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different. — tap to centre the map on it AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different. Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
MK
Michael Kratsios — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: His prediction that research-level mathematics papers would be written in collaboration with AI by 2026 has already come true. — tap to centre the map on it His prediction that research-level mathematics papers would be written in collaboration with AI by 2026 has already come true. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. — tap to centre the map on it A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. — tap to centre the map on it A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Solving one Olympiad problem with three days of Google's server time shows what is possible, but the approach does not scale. — tap to centre the map on it Solving one Olympiad problem with three days of Google's server time shows what is possible, but the approach does not scale. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.
Holds DA Dario AmodeiRead this korrent →
AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence.
Holds RT Ruxandra TesloJT Jacob Trefethen
About ninety per cent of drugs that enter clinical trials fail.
Holds RT Ruxandra TesloDL Derek Lowe
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
Holds JT Jacob Trefethen
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
AI will have ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster, which is what will make it hard for society to absorb.
Holds DH Demis Hassabis
AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder.
Holds TT Terence Tao
AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that.
Holds LF Lex Fridman
AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different.
Holds MK Michael Kratsios
His prediction that research-level mathematics papers would be written in collaboration with AI by 2026 has already come true.
Holds TT Terence Tao
A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
Solving one Olympiad problem with three days of Google's server time shows what is possible, but the approach does not scale.
Holds TT Terence Tao
A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number.
Holds NB Noam Brown