korrents

On the map

Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.

← AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few…

17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 22 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under AI and science AI and science Everything filed under recursive self-improvement recursive self-improvement Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under mathematics mathematics Everything filed under protein structure prediction protein structure prediction Everything filed under innovation innovation Everything filed under design design Cannot both be trueSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. AI will not on its own compress decades ofmedical progress into a few years, becausethe binding constraint is human data,clinical trials and regulation rather thanintelligence. Last stated 3 months ago 21 Jul 2026 RT Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are JT Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are Cannot both be true: Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. — tap to centre the map on it Powerful AI will compress thebiological and medical progress ofthe next 50-100 years into 5-10years. Last stated 2 years ago 1 Oct 2024 DA Dario Amodei — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medicalprogress is one AI can remove, andwhich ones will remain can beguessed at now. Last stated a year ago 2 Aug 2025 JT Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a singleyear should deliver four or fiveyears worth of AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago 11 Aug 2026 RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI will have ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster, which is what will make it hard for society to absorb. — tap to centre the map on it AI will have ten times the impact ofthe Industrial Revolution and arriveten times faster, which is what willmake it hard for society to absorb. Last stated a year ago 23 Jul 2025 DH Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff. — tap to centre the map on it AI's transformation of society willunfold gradually over decades, notin a single moment of takeoff. Last stated 3 months ago 15 Jul 2026 TF Tiago Forte — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligenceis plausibly centuries or millenniaaway, and no trend supports ashorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago 13 Dec 2023 SA Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are SA Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. — tap to centre the map on it Advanced AI is close enough that thepreparations which take years haveto be started now, whichever end ofthe expert range you believe. Last stated 2 years ago 1 Apr 2025 HT Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are MB Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: Better drug candidates do not shorten clinical trials, because a trial's duration is set by operational and regulatory friction rather than by how good the drug is. — tap to centre the map on it Better drug candidates do notshorten clinical trials, because atrial's duration is set byoperational and regulatory frictionrather than by how good the drug is. Last stated 8 months ago 28 Feb 2026 RT Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-02-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: A narrow, highly accurate model can beat a general one inside its own domain, as AlphaFold did, and materials science and chip design are next. — tap to centre the map on it A narrow, highly accurate model canbeat a general one inside its owndomain, as AlphaFold did, andmaterials science and chip designare next. Last stated 3 months ago 30 Jul 2026 JD Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: Contemporary physical and evolutionary structure-prediction approaches fall far short of experimental accuracy without a close experimental homologue, limiting biological utility. — tap to centre the map on it Contemporary physical andevolutionary structure-predictionapproaches fall far short ofexperimental accuracy without aclose experimental homologue,limiting biological utility. Last stated 5 years ago 15 Jul 2021 DH Demis Hassabis — holds since 2021-07-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: Deep learning has effectively solved the problem of predicting a protein's 3D structure from its sequence. — tap to centre the map on it Deep learning has effectively solvedthe problem of predicting aprotein's 3D structure from itssequence. Last stated a year ago 29 Jun 2025 EH Elliot Hershberg — holds since 2025-06-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock. — tap to centre the map on it A persistently rising dividend yieldeventually forces capitalappreciation as the market reratesthe stock. Last stated 8 months ago 3 Mar 2026 SB Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. — tap to centre the map on it A proof and an explanation aredifferent things, and a theorem canstay an unsolved expository problemlong after it is proved. Last stated 4 months ago 30 Jun 2026 GS Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. — tap to centre the map on it A stream of AI-written papers withany error rate at all becomesinsufferable, because finding theerror costs more than the paper isworth even at ninety-nine percent. Last stated 4 months ago 30 Jun 2026 GS Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvementin AI models would create a bigincentive for some other parts ofthe world to invest a lot more incompute. Last stated 4 weeks ago 22 Sept 2026 TC Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started. — tap to centre the map on it AI is already inside the recursiveself-improvement loop — what thelabs have shipped in recent weeksshows the cycle has started. Last stated 3 months ago 3 Aug 2026 CP Chamath Palihapitiya — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automatedaround 2030 or 2031, and AI willbeat humans at essentially any jobby about 2033. Last stated 2 months ago 11 Aug 2026 RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
cannot both be truesame subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2008 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they arefaded, dashed ring: they no longer hold it — they changed their mind

At the centre AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. Last stated 21 Jul 2026 · 3 months ago Holds Ruxandra TesloJacob Trefethen Read this korrent →