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← AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff.
17 connected korrents · 19 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 18 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under politics
politics
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under measuring intelligence
measuring intelligence
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under war
war
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff. AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff. Last stated 2 months ago
15 Jul 2026
TF
Tiago Forte — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will have ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster, which is what will make it hard for society to absorb. — tap to centre the map on it AI will have ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster, which is what will make it hard for society to absorb. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will eliminate many millions of jobs within the next few years, and that disruption will shape the politics of everything else about AI. — tap to centre the map on it AI will eliminate many millions of jobs within the next few years, and that disruption will shape the politics of everything else about AI. Last stated 2 years ago
15 Feb 2025
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, but humans will still have plenty to do. — tap to centre the map on it Many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, but humans will still have plenty to do. Last stated 2 weeks ago
7 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will be as central to how the world is run and to humanity's future as industrial technology was from 1870 to 1970. — tap to centre the map on it AI will be as central to how the world is run and to humanity's future as industrial technology was from 1870 to 1970. Last stated 3 days ago
18 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI's impact will be bigger than the internet's, and more profound. — tap to centre the map on it AI's impact will be bigger than the internet's, and more profound. Last stated 3 months ago
18 Jun 2026
LT
Lip-Bu Tan — holds since 2026-06-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming. — tap to centre the map on it No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming. Last stated 3 weeks ago
1 Sept 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A backlash against women's economic rise is not automatic; it happens only where politicians choose to mobilise it. — tap to centre the map on it A backlash against women's economic rise is not automatic; it happens only where politicians choose to mobilise it. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Dec 2024
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2024-12-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country without cultural unity struggles to provide public goods, because its politics turns into an ethnic spoils system. — tap to centre the map on it A country without cultural unity struggles to provide public goods, because its politics turns into an ethnic spoils system. Last stated 5 months ago
9 Apr 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-04-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A two-state solution is no longer possible; that boat has sailed. — tap to centre the map on it A two-state solution is no longer possible; that boat has sailed. Last stated 3 years ago
17 Nov 2023
JM
John Mearsheimer — holds since 2023-11-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A unit of AI inference needs to be defined, for example via a chain of increasingly hard problems where each consecutive pair is solvable by one model. — tap to centre the map on it A unit of AI inference needs to be defined, for example via a chain of increasingly hard problems where each consecutive pair is solvable by one model. Last stated 6 days ago
15 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. — tap to centre the map on it Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. Last stated 7 years ago
5 Nov 2019
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2019-11-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce. — tap to centre the map on it Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Jun 2023
GH
George Hotz — holds since 2023-06-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. — tap to centre the map on it A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. Last stated 4 weeks ago
22 Aug 2026
JP
Jennifer Pahlka — holds since 2026-08-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. Last stated a month ago
18 Aug 2026
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot. — tap to centre the map on it A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot. Last stated 2 years ago
7 Dec 2024
AL
Alon Levy — holds since 2024-12-07 — tap for who they are
At the centre
AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff.
Holds Read this korrent →
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds
AI will have ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster, which is what will make it hard for society to absorb.
Holds
AI will eliminate many millions of jobs within the next few years, and that disruption will shape the politics of everything else about AI.
Holds
Many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, but humans will still have plenty to do.
Holds
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holds
AI will be as central to how the world is run and to humanity's future as industrial technology was from 1870 to 1970.
Holds
AI's impact will be bigger than the internet's, and more profound.
Holds
No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming.
Holds
A backlash against women's economic rise is not automatic; it happens only where politicians choose to mobilise it.
Holds
A country without cultural unity struggles to provide public goods, because its politics turns into an ethnic spoils system.
Holds
A two-state solution is no longer possible; that boat has sailed.
Holds
A unit of AI inference needs to be defined, for example via a chain of increasingly hard problems where each consecutive pair is solvable by one model.
Holds
Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect.
Holds
Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce.
Holds
A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely.
Holds
A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world.
Holds
A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot.
Holds