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← AI capability will look dramatically different within about three…
17 connected korrents · 21 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 21 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under measuring intelligence
measuring intelligence
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under video games
video games
Everything filed under recursive self-improvement
recursive self-improvement Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI capability will look dramatically different within about three years, provided agents can be reliably deployed and evaluated. AI capability will look dramatically different within about three years, provided agents can be reliably deployed and evaluated. Last stated 3 years ago
22 Mar 2024
EG
Elad Gil — holds since 2024-03-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The current ease of building software with AI will be seen as normal and commonplace within 12 to 24 months, though few realize it yet. — tap to centre the map on it The current ease of building software with AI will be seen as normal and commonplace within 12 to 24 months, though few realize it yet. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
TY
Tynan — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Any given AI capability becomes cheap and widely available within a couple of years of first being reached, so nobody can be kept away from it for long. — tap to centre the map on it Any given AI capability becomes cheap and widely available within a couple of years of first being reached, so nobody can be kept away from it for long. Last stated 2 years ago
5 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-05 — tap for who they are
EY
Eliezer Yudkowsky — holds since 2022-06-10 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Agents will take a decade rather than a year, because today's models are cognitively lacking in too many independent ways at once. — tap to centre the map on it Agents will take a decade rather than a year, because today's models are cognitively lacking in too many independent ways at once. Last stated a year ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable. — tap to centre the map on it AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable. Last stated a month ago
10 Sept 2026
TS
Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. — tap to centre the map on it Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. Last stated a year ago
7 Oct 2025
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
HK
Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. Last stated 3 days ago
21 Oct 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. — tap to centre the map on it A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. Last stated a month ago
15 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. — tap to centre the map on it Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. Last stated 7 years ago
5 Nov 2019
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2019-11-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce. — tap to centre the map on it Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Jun 2023
GH
George Hotz — holds since 2023-06-29 — tap for who they are
At the centre
AI capability will look dramatically different within about three years, provided agents can be reliably deployed and evaluated.
Holds Read this korrent →
The current ease of building software with AI will be seen as normal and commonplace within 12 to 24 months, though few realize it yet.
Holds
Any given AI capability becomes cheap and widely available within a couple of years of first being reached, so nobody can be kept away from it for long.
Holds
Agents will take a decade rather than a year, because today's models are cognitively lacking in too many independent ways at once.
Holds
AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable.
Holds
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.
Holds
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holds
A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad.
Holds
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds
A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score.
Holds
A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve.
Holds
Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect.
Holds
Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce.
Holds