Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. SAScott Aaronson7 Sept 2008similar wording
• Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. SAScott Aaronson7 Sept 2008similar wording
• Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. YBYoshua Bengio12 Aug 2023similar wording
• AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. HTHelen Toner6 Apr 2026similar wording
• Every generation's test for machine intelligence is whatever machines cannot do yet, so in twenty years the question will be whether it can reproduce. GHGeorge Hotz29 Jun 2023similar wording

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