"Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy short

Helen Toner · 1 Apr 2025

Others here said this too

Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.

Their wordsWe need to leap into action on many of the same things that could help if it does turn out that we only have a few years.

Also said by Miles Brundage

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Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

Our reading
Dismissing human-level AI as science fiction is now unserious, because even the sceptical experts put it within a decade or two.

Their wordsDismissing discussion of AGI, human-level AI, transformative AI, superintelligence, etc. as “science fiction” should be seen as a sign of total unseriousness.
Our reading
Arguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it.

Their wordsIf you want to argue that human-level AI is extremely unlikely in the next 20 years, you certainly can, but you should treat that as a minority position where the burden of proof is on you.
Our reading
Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.

Their wordsWe need to leap into action on many of the same things that could help if it does turn out that we only have a few years.

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