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On being wrong about AI

Scott Aaronson · 13 Dec 2023

A change of mind in this piece

Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.

No longer holdsI was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.

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3 korrents from this piece · 3 of them a turn ↓

Scott Aaronson did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.

    No longer holdsI was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
    Their words nowOnce I saw the empirical case that a generative AI revolution was imminent—sometime during the pandemic—I updated, hard.

  2. Our reading

    Because a few specialists already devote themselves to superintelligent AI, the rest of us have correspondingly less reason to spend our own effort on it.

    No longer holdsI accepted what’s turned into a two-year position at OpenAI, thinking about what theoretical computer science can do for AI safety.
    Their words nowone must never use radical ignorance as an excuse to default, in practice, to the guess that everything will stay basically the same.

  3. Our reading

    Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.

    No longer holdsI was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
    Their words nowOnce I saw the empirical case that a generative AI revolution was imminent—sometime during the pandemic—I updated, hard.

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