Dismissing human-level AI as science fiction is now unserious, because even the sceptical experts put it within a decade or two.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. ISIlya Sutskever25 Nov 2025AGIAI alignment
• There is a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045 SAScott Alexander11 Jun 2026AGIAI alignment
• A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. AIAlex Imas4 Jun 2026AGI
• A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. GMGary Marcus7 Jun 2025AGI
• A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. PTPhil Trammell4 Jun 2026AGI

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