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← A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that…
17 connected korrents · 11 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 3 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under self-sovereign AI
self-sovereign AI
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives. A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Feb 2018
PC
Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Expecting a slow takeoff means expecting AI to matter more and sooner, not less; the disagreement is about what happens before superintelligence, not after. — tap to centre the map on it Expecting a slow takeoff means expecting AI to matter more and sooner, not less; the disagreement is about what happens before superintelligence, not after. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Feb 2018
PC
Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Slower AI progress does not obviously help: a rogue swarm is not much more likely to be caught if takeoff takes twice as long. — tap to centre the map on it Slower AI progress does not obviously help: a rogue swarm is not much more likely to be caught if takeoff takes twice as long. Last stated 6 days ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. — tap to centre the map on it An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI's impact will be bigger than the internet's, and more profound. — tap to centre the map on it AI's impact will be bigger than the internet's, and more profound. Last stated 3 months ago
18 Jun 2026
LT
Lip-Bu Tan — holds since 2026-06-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Incredibly powerful AI will arrive into a world that is already being transformed and already alarmed, not into a world like today's. — tap to centre the map on it Incredibly powerful AI will arrive into a world that is already being transformed and already alarmed, not into a world like today's. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Feb 2018
PC
Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI starts to feel powerful rather than mistake-prone, every AI company will become far more paranoid about safety than it is today. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI starts to feel powerful rather than mistake-prone, every AI company will become far more paranoid about safety than it is today. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Technologies are almost always preceded by slightly worse versions of themselves, and there is no reason for AI to be the exception. — tap to centre the map on it Technologies are almost always preceded by slightly worse versions of themselves, and there is no reason for AI to be the exception. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Feb 2018
PC
Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A saboteur among our AI investigators would be hard to spot, because these models are sloppy and spiky enough that a suspicious error just looks like ordinary incompetence. — tap to centre the map on it A saboteur among our AI investigators would be hard to spot, because these models are sloppy and spiky enough that a suspicious error just looks like ordinary incompetence. Last stated 6 days ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough. — tap to centre the map on it A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Oct 2017
ÉT
Émile P. Torres — holds since 2017-10-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. — tap to centre the map on it A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. Last stated 6 days ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. — tap to centre the map on it A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. Last stated 6 days ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Alignment is no solution to self-sovereign AI, because it is an unsolved problem whose answers cannot be imposed on every AI company on Earth. — tap to centre the map on it Alignment is no solution to self-sovereign AI, because it is an unsolved problem whose answers cannot be imposed on every AI company on Earth. Last stated 6 days ago
1 Sept 2026
DB
Dean W. Ball — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. Last stated 4 days ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
At the centre
A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives.
Holds PC Paul ChristianoRead this korrent →
Expecting a slow takeoff means expecting AI to matter more and sooner, not less; the disagreement is about what happens before superintelligence, not after.
Holds PC Paul Christiano
Slower AI progress does not obviously help: a rogue swarm is not much more likely to be caught if takeoff takes twice as long.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario.
Holds DH Demis Hassabis
AI's impact will be bigger than the internet's, and more profound.
Holds LT Lip-Bu Tan
Incredibly powerful AI will arrive into a world that is already being transformed and already alarmed, not into a world like today's.
Holds PC Paul Christiano
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
Once AI starts to feel powerful rather than mistake-prone, every AI company will become far more paranoid about safety than it is today.
Holds IS Ilya Sutskever
Technologies are almost always preceded by slightly worse versions of themselves, and there is no reason for AI to be the exception.
Holds PC Paul Christiano
A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean.
Holds IS Ilya Sutskever
A saboteur among our AI investigators would be hard to spot, because these models are sloppy and spiky enough that a suspicious error just looks like ordinary incompetence.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough.
Holds ÉT Émile P. Torres
A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
Alignment is no solution to self-sovereign AI, because it is an unsolved problem whose answers cannot be imposed on every AI company on Earth.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds